CD Saturday R6
I think there’s a very, very live first timer in the 6th at Churchill on Saturday that I would love (but don’t expect) to get his 8-1 morning line on. #10 William’s Kitten is by Kitten’s Joy, who broke his maiden the first time he ran on grass in his 3rd career start and obviously went on to win multiple G1’s on turf. The dam wasn’t much of a runner, but did earn an 88 top Beyer sprinting on the dirt. Ken Ramsey’s enthusiasm and desire to market Kitten’s Joy as a top young sire has been well documented, and it’s fair to assume that he’s looking to win some races early with his KJ babies to create some buzz. William’s Kitten is in the very capable hands of Michael Maker, who doesn’t win a ton of races with firsters, but is certainly able to have one geared up to come out running if he really wants to.
What intrigued me most about this horse is his workout pattern - William’s Kitten has worked steadily and has shown a bit of ability overall, but what really stands out to me is the bullet 5F drill on June 3rd on the Churchill training track. If we look at who else worked at that distance on that day, we see that William’s Kitten shares that bullet with Rumor Control - a three-year-old filly who broke her maiden last Sunday at Churchill at the same distance and on the same surface, also trained by Michael Maker. Rumor Control was making her second career start and first for Maker after debuting for Pletcher last November on the dirt. She showed a VERY fast work-tab coming into her race on Sunday and was bet down to 2-1 favoritism. She pressed the pace three wide and battled down to the wire with Southern Dynasty, the Werner-trained pacesetter who was very logical in her second career start. The third place finisher was six lengths behind, and the 84 Beyer that Rumor Control earned is 4 points above par for that level (I think the knock on turf Beyers is less valid in shorter races where the runners in question are on or near the pace). If William’s Kitten can put out an effort anywhere close to Rumor Control’s, which he appears to be able to considering their shared bullet, then he should crush these with any racing luck unless another one of the firsters is also a monster in waiting (also note that Rumor Control was facing three-year-old fillies, while William’s Kitten will be facing two-year-old colts).
The public will probably catch on to a certain extent considering Maker’s recent success and everyone’s obsession with Leparoux, but I think something like 5 or 6-1 will still be an overlay. I hate taking such a low price on a firster, but the angles here are too strong to ignore. The well-bet connections are kind of taking away from some of the value of the less obvious workout discovery in this case, so maybe I shouldn't be wasting everyone's time with a probable 3-1 shot, but I still figured it was worth noting and it's an interesting race to discuss nonetheless.
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06-26-2009, 04:58 AM
Hybrid Mode
