7/9: Belmont ($35k C/O)

[Kasept]

Late action at Belmont, already affected by important scratches in the 6th and 8th, went sideways as feared when hard-to-reach Acclimate won the strangely run sequence starter. When deep tickets only number Ed's Princess took the nightcap, not only was a $35,500 carryover assured, but it tripped the Quad payout to the tune of $9,700. That would mean only an estimated 15 tickets ($2) were able to traverse the skien.

Hope you did OK. Thursday seems more manageable. Also hope you caught Steve Crist on ATR Wednesday night as he introduced Formulator 'TicketMaker' on DRF.com. The new service assists your P3, P4, P5 or P6 ticket building utilizing Crist's A-B-C-X method of main/back-up ducats. Steve also fielded a variety of excellent questions about multi-race wagering.

Link to the archives if you missed it:
http://www.thoroughbredracingradione...2009&Itemid=35


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


Serious SCR's impacted the sequence. Revisions made but feeling a lot less confident about the play right now...


4th: S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Liquid Amber 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Good Prospect 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Raynick's Fan 6-1 2nd
Trifecta Add: #8 Deputyville 10-1 4th

Play Against: #5 Fuhrever Dancing 3-1 7th


5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE) SCR
Next Best: #4 SCR
Best Value: #6 Edashor 20-1 4th

Play Against: #3 Moose Man 5-2 6th


6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Three Bridge Road 7-2 WON
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #1 Cops Fever 2-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Always Fishin 15-1 6th

Play Against: #10 Big Gavel 4-1 3rd


7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Golden Weekend 2-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Vinnies Wild Tale 15-1 8th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Marq of Love 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Hedgefund Investor 5-1 7th


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE-Only one goes) Treat Gently 8-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Kristi With a K 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Quarayed 12-1 5th


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Winloc's Big D 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Ritzy Aly 20-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Royal Lord 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 SCR


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-9
5: 2-5-6-7
6: 1-3
7: 3
8: 1a-4
9: 3-4-9

2x4x2x1x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (3/7/3/2,3,4/1,5/9) Paid $164.00 (5OF6) x 8 = $1,312
$2 Pick 6 (3/7/3/2,3,4/1,5/9) Paid $18,505.00 (6OF6)

$19,817 Total


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 1-3-5-7-9-10
8: 1a-4
9: 3-4-9

2x6x2x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (3/2,3,4/1,5/9) Paid $320.00 (4OF4)



Good luck!
Steve

[philcski]

I like the new "play-against" category Steve. Just as much a reason to play a race as not play a race. If you can eliminate a 4-1 from contention you've already beat the takeout.

[atolunch]

I like the #7 in the fourth, for whatever that's worth!


Scratches
Race 2 #9 Long Island Louie, #10 Lord Jet
Race 5 #4 My Golden Opinion
Race 6 #9 Wishingonadream, #11 Titletown Tiger
Race 7 #2 Golden Caesar
Race 8 #5 Fast Tigress
Race 9 #2 Southern Spender, #6 Stone Turtle, #7 Court Appointment

[Kasept]

Very irksome scratches in the 5th that really throw the P6 into slight disarray... Revising, but not nearly as excited about the sequence right now.

[BellaGena Stable]

Thanks as always for your pics. Just as a heads up the 4 in the 7th race is scratched according to Twinspires.

[hockey2315]

Wow.