Zenyatta

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There's very little liquidity in the exchange markets right now ... but if you don't like Zenyatta ... you can get over $2,000 against her giving away 3.6-to-1 odds right now.

Here's the odds available right now in a loose market that will tighten up a lot more by Saturday.

Mine That Bird (28/1)
Colonel John (26/1)
Summer Bird (7.4-to-1)
Zenyatta (3.1-to-1)
Twice Over (15/1)
Richard's Kid (21/1)
Gio Ponti (15/1)
Einstein (26/1)
Girolamo (39/1)
Rip Van Winkle (2/1)
Regal Ransom (39/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (74/1)

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There's very little liquidity in the exchange markets right now ... but if you don't like Zenyatta ... you can get over $2,000 against her giving away 3.6-to-1 odds right now.

Here's the odds available right now in a loose market that will tighten up a lot more by Saturday.

Mine That Bird (28/1)
Colonel John (26/1)
Summer Bird (7.4-to-1)
Zenyatta (3.1-to-1)
Twice Over (15/1)
Richard's Kid (21/1)
Gio Ponti (15/1)
Einstein (26/1)
Girolamo (39/1)
Rip Van Winkle (2/1)
Regal Ransom (39/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (74/1)

You know you are going to lay off the other side at 3 to1

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

I honestly don't see how anything they do could change your opinion of how Zenyatta will run in the Classic.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I honestly don't see how anything they do could change your opinion of how Zenyatta will run in the Classic.

I think they are both a great measuring stick of Zenyatta's form .. Life Is Sweet has been racing just behind Zen earlier and not quite finishing with her ... Leathal Heat has been racing a few lengths in front of Zen earlier ... and not quite finishing good enough.

If LIS and LH run a dominant 1-2 in that order .. I think it makes Zenyatta a little harder to strongly oppose.

However .. if LIS and LH both are soundly beaten and off the board ... I think it really takes some steam away from the rabid argument that Zenyatta's recent form looks markedly worse than it actually is.

I've had a lot of success over the years adjusting my opinion in situations like this. If you don't buy into it... that's fine with me. There's a lot of things I buy into even more kooky than something like that.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

zenyatta will lose.....

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

How do you feel about her now?

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Life Is Sweet had won 3 straight G1/G2 races on the Pro-Ride and then in her next four she was 7 lengths in third to Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and finished 2.25, 4.25, and 1.75 lengths behind Zenyatta. I think the Santa Anita Pro-Ride, the extra sixteenth, and crazy pace set by Careless Jewel helped Life Is Sweet.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Life Is Sweet had won 3 straight G1/G2 races on the Pro-Ride and then in her next four she was 7 lengths in third to Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and finished 2.25, 4.25, and 1.75 lengths behind Zenyatta. I think the Santa Anita Pro-Ride, the extra sixteenth, and crazy pace set by Careless Jewel helped Life Is Sweet.

The pace was not really set by careless jewel, it was set by lethal heat, that horse running off did nothing to the pace of the rest of the horses that actually ran.

[slotdirt]

Careless Jewel served as a pretty nice rabbit for the rest of the field. I can't imagine Life is Sweet winning without her - and I had the 2.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The pace was not really set by careless jewel, it was set by lethal heat, that horse running off did nothing to the pace of the rest of the horses that actually ran.

I got the impression that the rider on Proviso jumped the gun, perhaps thinking Careless Jewel was just coasting when well in front, and moved his mount very early into the fast fractions. Both Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach followed in turn. All 3 were under a drive with still over 3f left to run.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Maybe not quite as much about Zenyatta as some may think .. but we did learn something about her chances tomorrow.

I posted the following a week or so ago ...

Careless Jewel is heaven sent for Life Is Sweet.

If you're in the camp that is of the believe that Zenyatta's been made to look extremely ordinary in her last two races because of slow paces ... what does that say for Life Is Sweet - who was the only horse in the race even more disadvantaged than Zenyatta in both instances?

Life Is Sweet is very likely who I will be betting in the Distaff.

I'm not so sure Zenyatta is as much of a slave to pace as Life Is Sweet is ... however, after watching the Distaff, it should be crystal clear that Zenyatta is way better than the two extremely mediocre looking races on paper that she has run in her last two starts.

However, just because Life Is Sweet got a gift from heaven race shape in the Distaff ... doesn't mean Zenyatta will get the same in the Classic .. in fact, unless Regal Ransom and Quality Road do something really stupid .. she might be subjected to another slow pace... though probably not as slow of a pace as the one that made Life Is Sweet lose soundly to Lethal Heat twice.. and get drubbed by Cocoa Beach over the same track a few weeks ago.

Had Lethal Heat finished 2nd today ... I think that would have been a really great win for Zenyatta's chances tomorrow. That certainly didn't happen. Yet it's hardly any knock to Zenyatta's chances tomorrow either ... LH could just be long in the tooth from a tough Barry Abrams campaigin.

All in all ... I think we learned for certain..

* That Life Is Sweet is a VERY dangerous horse when she gets a strong pace. She's a very mediocre one when she gets no pace.

* We learned for 100% certain that Zenyatta is better than her last two races.

What we don't know is what kind of pace Zenyatta gets tomorrow ... surely nothing like the one Careless Jewel helped setup for LIS today.

I'm still going to try and beat Zenyatta tomorrow ... but I won't be all fired up to bet against her.

Now if you guys will excuse me for the rest of the night ... I have to go out and try and make an even bigger fool of myself in Vegas tonight than I normally do posting here.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Maybe not quite as much about Zenyatta as some may think .. but we did learn something about her chances tomorrow.

I posted the following a week or so ago ...




I'm not so sure Zenyatta is as much of a slave to pace as Life Is Sweet is ... however, after watching the Distaff, it should be crystal clear that Zenyatta is way better than the two extremely mediocre looking races on paper that she has run in her last two starts.

However, just because Life Is Sweet got a gift from heaven race shape in the Distaff ... doesn't mean Zenyatta will get the same in the Classic .. in fact, unless Regal Ransom and Quality Road do something really stupid .. she might be subjected to another slow pace... though probably not as slow of a pace as the one that made Life Is Sweet lose soundly to Lethal Heat twice.. and get drubbed by Cocoa Beach over the same track a few weeks ago.

Had Lethal Heat finished 2nd today ... I think that would have been a really great win for Zenyatta's chances tomorrow. That certainly didn't happen. Yet it's hardly any knock to Zenyatta's chances tomorrow either ... LH could just be long in the tooth from a tough Barry Abrams campaigin.

All in all ... I think we learned for certain..

* That Life Is Sweet is a VERY dangerous horse when she gets a strong pace. She's a very mediocre one when she gets no pace.

* We learned for 100% certain that Zenyatta is better than her last two races.

What we don't know is what kind of pace Zenyatta gets tomorrow ... surely nothing like the one Careless Jewel helped setup for LIS today.

I'm still going to try and beat Zenyatta tomorrow ... but I won't be all fired up to bet against her.

Now if you guys will excuse me for the rest of the night ... I have to go out and try and make an even bigger fool of myself in Vegas tonight than I normally do posting here.

Life Is Sweet is not a slave to pace. The reason Life Is Sweet won today had very little to do with the pace. They could have run the half in :49 today and she still would have won. She won the El Encino last year coming from dead last into a :50 half. The reason Life Is Sweet hadn't been running well lately had nothing to do with pace. I picked her to win today(Dunbar is my witness), because she was finally staring to look like her old self again.

Santa Anita has always been her favorite track. She was practically unbeatable at Santa Anita during the winter/spring meet. She regressed a little bit at Hollywood and at Del Mar she went way down hill. She trained really poorly down there and didn't like the track at all. One of my best friends is good friends with Wygod. Going into her last race, I asked him how she was doing because I know that she is a much better filly at Santa Anita. He said she was doing a little better but still had not fully recuperated from Del Mar and was not doing nearly as well as earlier in the year. She didn't end up running particularly well that day. At that point I would have given her very little chance today. But I saw her work the other day and I thought she worked great. So I called my friend again to ask him if they thought the filly had moved forward since that last race. He told me that she had moved way forward since her last race and was training like her old self again. That's why I bet her today. I don't think the pace had anything to do with her win today. Don't get me wrong, a fast pace certainly makes things easier for her but she doesn't have to have a fast pace to win.

If you look at her winning races, you will see that when she fires, she comes home extremely fast. At Santa Anita earlier in the year, in the El Encino she came from dead last on a :50 half-mile and won. She ran her final 1/8th of a mile in :11 1/5 that day. She didn't have that explosive kick in her last race. In her last race, they went the half in :49 2/5, which was a similar pace to the El Encino, yet in her last race she only came home in around :12 2/5 or so. She just wasn't the same horse that day. And that's not really a big surprise. The connections said that she wasn't training great going into that race. Yet going into today's race, they said she was training great, like her old self.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There's very little liquidity in the exchange markets right now ... but if you don't like Zenyatta ... you can get over $2,000 against her giving away 3.6-to-1 odds right now.

Here's the odds available right now in a loose market that will tighten up a lot more by Saturday.

Mine That Bird (28/1)
Colonel John (26/1)
Summer Bird (7.4-to-1)
Zenyatta (3.1-to-1)
Twice Over (15/1)
Richard's Kid (21/1)
Gio Ponti (15/1)
Einstein (26/1)
Girolamo (39/1)
Rip Van Winkle (2/1)
Regal Ransom (39/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (74/1)

WOW...Gio Ponti and Einstein look like big overlays.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

WOW...Gio Ponti and Einstein look like big overlays.

If Gio Pionti wins I eat the program

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

WOW...Gio Ponti and Einstein look like big overlays.

Yup

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Still very little liquidity... unless you hate Zenyatta chances at the 3.4-to-3.8 odds range.




Numbers are win odds +1. Back is to win. Lay is to bet against winning.

[hockey2315]

How difficult is it to set up an account on one of these exchanges?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How difficult is it to set up an account on one of these exchanges?

Impossible if you live in the US. I used to do pretty well laying off odds on favorites on IBETX. They booted all US customers and I can't find an exchange that will accept them.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How difficult is it to set up an account on one of these exchanges?

impossible, they check your IP address and if you have a US account they won't let you bet.

we NEED Betfair in this country.