12/5: Aqueduct (C/O)

[Kasept]

Wild day at Aqueduct Friday with a once a year type P4 payoff delivering $112k to one $2 ticket or $56k to two $1 plays. The sequence, which I foreshadowed as having potential for being lucrative, featured 2 $30+ horses in Sonny's the One and Executive Search and one $40+ winner in Devilishameye.

My ticket certainly had the right idea when I suggested singling 8th race winner Summer Share ($7.80) to be able to spread as much as possible elsewhere. It wasn't enough though. 'Devilish' was included, but Executive Search, my fourth choice Exotics Use, was left off as was Sonny's the One, something of a lucky winner in the 6th. Sonny's the One ran by everyone in an incident filled skein starter that included Mr. Bourbon Street tossing Mike Luzzi at the start and changing the complexion of the event. In addition to the loose horse, Davey Cohen on Man in Grey made Javy Castellano look like a bug boy keeping him and Cherokee Focus completely pinned on the rail.

While I'm not sure the Paulino Ortiz-trained winner wouldn't have come out on top anyway, this particular outcome needed a bunch of things to happen to be produced. But the P4 still would have been enormous and a carryover produced no matter who took the 6th. The bottom line though is that the P4, and even the doubles and P3's inside the late action, demonstrate that multi-race wagering is irresistible for producing highly returns with high impact.

The $515 7th race trifecta was the best of the Big A calls, and later in Louisiana, there was nothing but cashed tickets on the soggy Delta Downs card. Four modest tris ($56, $57, $92, $77), 2 OK supers ($112, $260) and the $283 P4 (4-1 return on $72 play) were available in the selections. Hope you did well... Heard from a couple ATR callers that scored, as well 'tigerfan' at Derby Trail who caught the $500+ 7th race tri and $1,646 late P3!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


$35,000 CARRYOVER


4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Broman entry 2-1 4th/7th
Next Best: #8 Cole T 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Belfast Lad 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2e Levine entry 12-1 5th/10th


5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting dime claimer with the two inside faves (#1/5-2, #2/3-1) looking at least vulnerable to me. Will go for the jugular and play against both..

Most Likely: #8 Four Star Bo 4-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Stargleam 9-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Indymine 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Lofty Banner 3-1 5th


6th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Allow Me 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #6 Five Aces 7-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Forty Prayers 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Freefourme 8-1 3rd


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Very difficult group..

Most Likely: #1 Dancing Daisy 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Marula 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Mustang Fever 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Idle Gossip 8-1 6th


8th: 24th Garland of Roses, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Utterly inscrutable event featuring runners from not one, but two suspended trainers! And if Pletcher had taken his long-delayed Wait a While Breeders' Cup suspension this month, there would be 4 in here from benched conditioners!

Most Likely: #6 Awesome Ashley 10-1 WON
Next Best: #4 By the Light 6-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Casanova Killer 12-1 6th
Super Add: #9 All of Her Twist 7-2 7th


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Ruling Decision 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Hidden Prince 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Rubinstein 2-1 8th
Super Add: #9 S. Z. Madison 5-2 5th


<$150 P6 Play:

This is a very difficult sequence.. Tread lightly..

4: 1
5: 2-3-6-8
6: 6-8
7: 1-6-7
8: 4-6-7
9: 1

1x4x2x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-8
7: 1-6-7
8: 4-6-7
9: 1-3-6-9

2x3x3x4 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[dellinger63]

Steve in the 5th do you give the 7 Ecru Egret a chance?

Was going to dismiss him as well as a strictly turf horse until I noticed Persaud is 18.5% win and 44.4% ITM for thre turf to dirt move and a $6.00 plus ROI. Certainly if his speed figures transfer to the dirt he's capable but I guess that's a big if.

[docicu3]

The snow is mighty heavy in Maryland now any chance the big A cancels?

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by docicu3

The snow is mighty heavy in Maryland now any chance the big A cancels?

please no! I like this card

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

please no! I like this card

I'm with you Del as yesterday looked alot like today, tough card, many opportunities especially in the multi's. It would be a shame to miss out on the late P4 today but we have 1-2 inches an hour falling here right now at least in Montgomery County

[VOL JACK]

It was a great night to Play Delta Downs.
Even though the track looked like a mess, it played very fair for a bull ring.

I couldn't believe some of the overlays in the win and exacta pools.
I thought Unforgotten should have been 2-5 with that bunch and was happy to get 8-5 on her.
Quite Temper was my play in the Golden Rod until she scratched. (much tougher race). (Very good job of Romans placing his nice crop of 2yo fillies.) She won in a gallop and paid 9.00. I was shocked that she was over 2-1.
I thought the Jackpot was a stone cold 2 horse race with Rule and Uh Oh Bango proving he was for real at CD in the G3 Iroqouis.
I preferred Bango over Rule, esp since Bango was much more value.

On a side note...Anyone not using thoro-graphs are really missing out on some great Sire stats, that are most helpful when the track comes up a mess.
Southern Tenacity who won the Sam's Town last night is by Cuvee.
Cuvee has had 80 starters on off tracks going into last night. (By 50 different horses.) They have won at an outstanding 30% in the off going.

[dellinger63]

nyra.com updated to Sat and (rain 43)and just heard from Gales they should run

[Heels1989]

in the NYC area this weekend. No precep as yet.