Dubai Carnival 2010 Discussion

[PatCummings]

Alrighty gang - more than just the contest - here is more room to talk Dubai. Meydan gets going on Thursday.

I have my analysis for the first night posted.

http://dubairacenight.com/2010-dubai...race-analysis/

[NoChanceToDance]

Pat,

Do you think the new Tapeta surface will play to the strengths of horse that like to race up with the pace? I'm going to give it a watching brief as far as parting with cash is concerned for the first meeting maybe the second, too.

I'm concerned that during the first 2/3 days of racing, the pace horses will be favoured quite considerably. Now when I say 'pace horses' I don't really mean horses that are likely to go off too fast, more meaning horses that will sit just behind the pace. I'm going to be fearing horses, who are likely to get an easy lead and are able to dictate their own pace.

Hold up horses could struggle to make up the ground on the new surface. The track is "similar" to Santa Anita with a shorter straight, and hold up horses might need to start their runs sooner than expected, which might catch a few out.

Mike De Kock has gone on record saying that his filly in the 1,000 Guineas trial is his best younger filly and a cut above the filly that was a champion 2yo last year. His main aim for her is the UAE Derby, and if that's the case, she ought to be winning tomorrow if she is fit enough.

[PatCummings]

I love the Saudis tomorrow in the Guineas trial. From what I've been told, the trial races went to the pace horses, but that could've been for a number of reasons. Pace might hold better, but I know Dettori thinks being off the pace will be best.

Betting - yeah, I'll be treading lightly for sure until we see how it plays out.

If De Kock's filly Raihana wins the 1000 Guineas prep, I will be slightly surprised. Comparing her form and times and the like to others he's had in similar situations, well, there just isn't much comparison (in my opinion). The Saudis have recency edge and quality times when comparing to other Saudi races over the same trips at those distances (yes, I've spent too much time looking at Saudi race results).

That's my take.

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Pat,

Do you think the new Tapeta surface will play to the strengths of horse that like to race up with the pace? I'm going to give it a watching brief as far as parting with cash is concerned for the first meeting maybe the second, too.

I'm concerned that during the first 2/3 days of racing, the pace horses will be favoured quite considerably. Now when I say 'pace horses' I don't really mean horses that are likely to go off too fast, more meaning horses that will sit just behind the pace. I'm going to be fearing horses, who are likely to get an easy lead and are able to dictate their own pace.

Hold up horses could struggle to make up the ground on the new surface. The track is "similar" to Santa Anita with a shorter straight, and hold up horses might need to start their runs sooner than expected, which might catch a few out.

Mike De Kock has gone on record saying that his filly in the 1,000 Guineas trial is his best younger filly and a cut above the filly that was a champion 2yo last year. His main aim for her is the UAE Derby, and if that's the case, she ought to be winning tomorrow if she is fit enough.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I love the Saudis tomorrow in the Guineas trial. From what I've been told, the trial races went to the pace horses, but that could've been for a number of reasons. Pace might hold better, but I know Dettori thinks being off the pace will be best.

Betting - yeah, I'll be treading lightly for sure until we see how it plays out.

If De Kock's filly Raihana wins the 1000 Guineas prep, I will be slightly surprised. Comparing her form and times and the like to others he's had in similar situations, well, there just isn't much comparison (in my opinion). The Saudis have recency edge and quality times when comparing to other Saudi races over the same trips at those distances (yes, I've spent too much time looking at Saudi race results).

That's my take.

Don't take Raihana's form too literally. She came back quite sore on both of her starts (hence why she never raced in graded company at home) and De Kock wanted to give her a bit of time before going to Dubai. He's pretty confident that she is his best filly that he's got.

I Like the Saudi horse at the bottom of the card, with two easy wins, but I'm not convinced either race took much winning.

I'm very surprised you never gave a mention of Red Rock Canyon in race 6. I know he's not the easiest horse. He has all the ability in the world but rarely shows it on the track. However, the change of stable and change of racing, could just light him up. Remember he has finished placed in many graded races for Aidan O'Brien when used in a pacemaking role and some of that form is the best on show in this race by some distance. Not only that, but he is being allowed to race with only 54kg on his back, easily the best handicapped horse in the race, and if he decided to try his hardest, he will be very difficult to beat.

Khor Dubai was actually one of the first I discounted. The form in England isn't very good. The 3rd behind Gitano Hernando somewhat flatters him, as that rival has improved leaps and bounds since then and the win in America was very much a surprise and probably flatters him, too. Khor Dubai was often seen in very moderate nurserys and handicaps on the AW, where one or two were often too good. The step up in distance is also against the horse, and I'd be very surpised if Khor Dubai was good enough here against some good handicappers and graded placed horses.

However, a very good read (as always) on your website, I agree with you regarding Star Crowned, who is always seen at his best when kept fresh. However, the Godolphin pair from Australia could be a class above the field if on-song?

Good luck.

[PatCummings]

I think Khor Dubai's biggest issue is the distance - otherwise, Gitano Hernando didn't improve "leaps and bounds" since then - he won a single race. I think it helps his form. I'm not overwhelmed by any in that race.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I think Khor Dubai's biggest issue is the distance - otherwise, Gitano Hernando didn't improve "leaps and bounds" since then - he won a single race. I think it helps his form. I'm not overwhelmed by any in that race.

Gitano Hernando was over about 60-70% fit that day, so he did improve a lot after that, and he was given an exceptional ride at Santa Anita when he was far from expected to win. Cesare disappointed badly in the race on the AW, and an unfit Gitano Hernando benefited.

If you've got it right, I'll hold my hands up, but with proven good level handicappers and group horses in that race, I cannot see anything but Khor Dubai being outclassed over a distance that will already stretch him.