2/12-14: Derby Future Wager - Pool 1

[Kasept]

2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 (Feb. 12-14)

1. Aikenite - 30-1

2. American Lion - 20-1

3. Buddy's Saint - 12-1

4. Concord Point - 30-1

5. Conveyance - 12-1

6. Dave in Dixie - 20-1

7. Drosselmeyer - 20-1

8. Dryfly - 20-1

9. Dublin - 15-1

10. Eskendereya - 20-1

11. Jackson Bend - 12-1

12. Lookin At Lucky - 8-1

13. Make Music For Me - 50-1

14. Maximus Ruler - 50-1

15. Noble's Promise - 15-1

16. Ron the Greek - 30-1

17. Rule - 12-1

18. Stay Put - 50-1

19. Super Saver - 15-1

20. Tiz Chrome - 20-1

21. Uptowncharlybrown - 50-1

22. Vale of York - 30-1

23. William's Kitten - 30-1

24. All other 3-year-olds - 5-2

Morning line by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia

[rpncaine]

So Lloydobler is 5-2...unacceptable :-)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by rpncaine

So Lloydobler is 5-2...unacceptable :-)

I'd say Lloyd probably has a better chance of winning the Kentucky Derby than Vale of York.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Kasept

14. Maximus Ruler - 50-1

This one intrigues me a little. I'm not entirely sure he'll be a 10f horse, but I liked his last race quite a bit, he could certainly improve going forward, and at 50/1+, he seems like he could be a decent play.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by miraja2

This one intrigues me a little. I'm not entirely sure he'll be a 10f horse, but I liked his last race quite a bit, he could certainly improve going forward, and at 50/1+, he seems like he could be a decent play.

Only if he had even a decent trainer.

[Indian Charlie]

Conveyance is the 2nd freakin choice????????

They were going to run him on dirt next, but are now saying either the sham or the uae derby thing.

[MISTERGEE]

are all these odds terrible or is it just me?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

are all these odds terrible or is it just me?

I don't think you are so terrible at all. There are far more terrible that I can think of.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't think you are so terrible at all. There are far more terrible that I can think of.

thanks for the "compliment"?

[knickslions2]

Looking forward to seeing Dublin run on Monday

[DaTruth]

Let me know when the technology has improved enough to the point that my choices in this pool aren't limited to 23 horses and the field.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 (Feb. 12-14)

1. Aikenite - 30-1

2. American Lion - 20-1

3. Buddy's Saint - 12-1

4. Concord Point - 30-1

5. Conveyance - 12-1

6. Dave in Dixie - 20-1

7. Drosselmeyer - 20-1

8. Dryfly - 20-1

9. Dublin - 15-1

10. Eskendereya - 20-1

11. Jackson Bend - 12-1

12. Lookin At Lucky - 8-1

13. Make Music For Me - 50-1

14. Maximus Ruler - 50-1

15. Noble's Promise - 15-1

16. Ron the Greek - 30-1

17. Rule - 12-1

18. Stay Put - 50-1

19. Super Saver - 15-1

20. Tiz Chrome - 20-1

21. Uptowncharlybrown - 50-1

22. Vale of York - 30-1

23. William's Kitten - 30-1

24. All other 3-year-olds - 5-2

Morning line by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia

Is this a joke? How is the 1 even on the list? and the 17 at those odds, I would not bet him at 200-1, and I actually think he might be decent.

[RockHardTen1985]

If I had to make a bet on this list I would bet the 10.

[StevenLD]

Just to be clear after two prior discussions on the air, here are my $10 and $6 Exacta probables for Pool #1.

#10 = ESKENDERAYA. . .#24 = ALL OTHERS, (a loaded group this year; that includes CARACORTADO; SIDNEY'S CANDY, LENTENOR, SETSUKO, BLIND LUCK, D'FUNNYBONE, DISCREETLY MINE; plus many others still in the game at this point). . .
#6 = DAVE IN DIXIE;
#7 = DROSSELMEYER;
#12 = LOOKIN AT LUCKY.

$10 units:
10-6 = $1,380.40 X 5 = $6902, (A very reasonable outcome, with extraordinary potential value.)
10-7 = $463.60 X 5 = $2318 (Not likely, but not impossible)
10-24= $162.60 X 5 = $813 (Very reasonable outcome)

24-6= $172.20 X 5 =$861 (Very reasonable outcome)
24-7 = $114.80 X 5 =$574 (Not impossible)
24-10 = $120.40X 5 = $602 (A reasonable outcome)

$6 saver units.
10-12 = $354.60 X 3 = $1063.80 (The most reasonable outcome of all at this point, with OK value)
24-12 =$51.20 X 3 = $153.60 (Very reasonable outcome, with modest 200+ % total return on $72 investment),
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Total cost for all eight exacta combinations = $72.

Win or lose, a very promising Futures Book investment

Last year: I bet #24 'All Others' for $400 and on race day, among several exotic plays, I bet $600 on Pioneerofthe Nile. . . .As you know #24 (Mine That Bird) won and paid for the Pioneerof the Nile win bet. . .'Bird' was a horse I could not have bet with your money in any win pool whatsoever.
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Bottom line after Saturday, Feb. 20 prep races:
The natural 10 furlong router ESKENDEREYA (who posted even fractions all the way through the nine furlongs Saturday and looked like a 2:01-type-1-1/4 mile horse), has all the talent he needs to win the Kentucky Derby.
But, Todd Pletcher must back off a touch while training this colt for the Florida Derby. He must not follow his historic pattern of winning prep races; he should study how Nafzger did it. TWICE. Pletcher must leave some room for improvement during the final few weeks.