Kentucky Derby pace will be very fast

[Buckpasser]

With three impressive wins this weekend from (1) Discreetly Mine, wire-to-wire; (2) Conveyance, wire-to-wire; (3) Eskendereya, forwardly placed throughout the FOY and (4) Rule wire-to-wire last week in Tampa who thinks that any of these will be around at the finish the first Saturday in May?

Connemara looking very interesting if he can navigate a big field at Churchill.

[Danzig]

let's see if they're at the start first.

[ateamstupid]

So four horses who have moderate tactical speed in February might be in the gate, and that's enough to declare that the Derby pace will be very fast and thus we should throw out said horses? Got it.

[johnny pinwheel]

its something not worth thinking about for weeks to come

[jballscalls]

isnt the derby pace generally very swift?? i mean 20 horses and 150k screaming people, things generally get quick early

[DaTruth]

Since we are forecasting the Derby pace this early, does anyone want to take a crack at forecasting the weather on Derby Day?

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Buckpasser

With three impressive wins this weekend from (1) Discreetly Mine, wire-to-wire; (2) Conveyance, wire-to-wire; (3) Eskendereya, forwardly placed throughout the FOY and (4) Rule wire-to-wire last week in Tampa who thinks that any of these will be around at the finish the first Saturday in May?

Connemara looking very interesting if he can navigate a big field at Churchill.

Coming on here and posting a statement like this,you are just asking to be ridiculed.

[Buckpasser]

No forward thinkers here. Sad

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Buckpasser

No forward thinkers here. Sad

I don't think it's a matter of that. I personally just think that it's a bit early to start talking about pace scenarios in a race where the horses are going pretty hot early anyway. Twenty horses and nobody wants to be six wide going into the first turn.
Sure there were some impressive performances this weekend, but do you honestly think that they are all going to make the gate? Hell, last years the favorite scratched the day of the race. Let's narrow the field down to about 30 and then maybe the debate could start. Just so much could happen from now till the first Saturday of May. For me personally, you can't debate a race when your not really sure who will be running in it.

But it's still a better topic than the possible weather forcast, I would plead guilty to not being a foward thinker about that.

Originally Posted by Left Bank

Coming on here and posting a statement like this,you are just asking to be ridiculed.

Buck is excited about the Derby and threw out a thought. People start talking about Super Bowl matchups 6 games into the season. Geez people stop taking yourselves so seriously and thinking you need to be the arbitors and conscience of the game.

In case you forgot this is all supposed to be fun.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Buck is excited about the Derby and threw out a thought. People start talking about Super Bowl matchups 6 games into the season. Geez people stop taking yourselves so seriously and thinking you need to be the arbitors and conscience of the game.

In case you forgot this is all supposed to be fun.

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

In case you forgot this is all supposed to be fun.

Vic Stauffer = Voice of Reason

This game is fun, isn't it?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Buck is excited about the Derby and threw out a thought. People start talking about Super Bowl matchups 6 games into the season. Geez people stop taking yourselves so seriously and thinking you need to be the arbitors and conscience of the game.

In case you forgot this is all supposed to be fun.

It's a lousy case for declaring that the Derby pace will be fast in February. What should we say? It's the phrasing of the post. Instead of "what kind of pace do you guys think the Derby will have?" which at least has a 2% chance of leading to an interesting discussion, it's "These four horses won close to the lead, therefore the Derby pace will be fast and these horses probably have no shot."

Sincerely,
Conscience of the Game

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Buck is excited about the Derby and threw out a thought. People start talking about Super Bowl matchups 6 games into the season. Geez people stop taking yourselves so seriously and thinking you need to be the arbitors and conscience of the game.

In case you forgot this is all supposed to be fun.

I wasn't cutting down Buck,I was merely pointing out what you did.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Buck is excited about the Derby and threw out a thought. People start talking about Super Bowl matchups 6 games into the season. Geez people stop taking yourselves so seriously and thinking you need to be the arbitors and conscience of the game.

In case you forgot this is all supposed to be fun.

and the chances of all of them making the derby..its very early vic

[pick4]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

and the chances of all of them making the derby..its very early vic

Next Monday is March 1st. I think we're in the Goldilocks phase.
It's not too early and it's not late. 9 weeks and a few days enough time for more horses to show they have the ability as well as get hurt or fall on their faces.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Buckpasser

With three impressive wins this weekend from (1) Discreetly Mine, wire-to-wire; (2) Conveyance, wire-to-wire; (3) Eskendereya, forwardly placed throughout the FOY and (4) Rule wire-to-wire last week in Tampa who thinks that any of these will be around at the finish the first Saturday in May?

Connemara looking very interesting if he can navigate a big field at Churchill.

I wouldn't make assumptions about any of the horses you listed. Even if the pace is fast there is no telling which of those horses have the ability to sit 10-15 lengths off of a fast pace.
Connemara has done nothing wrong but before I would get too excited about him I'd like to see how he runs against a field of horses that aren't comprised mostly of former claimers.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Connemara has done nothing wrong but before I would get too excited about him I'd like to see how he runs against a field of horses that aren't comprised mostly of former claimers.

Not to mention he hasn't raced over a conventional dirt surface.

I'm not sure why the initial poster pigeon-holes Eskendereya as some sort of frontrunner. He absolutely crushed the FOY and was merely toying with an all-out Jackson Bend with over a quarter of a mile left to run.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'm not sure why the initial poster pigeon-holes Eskendereya as some sort of frontrunner. He absolutely crushed the FOY and was merely toying with an all-out Jackson Bend with over a quarter of a mile left to run.

This was more my point, same with Discreetly Mine. Neither of these horses needs the lead, and who's to say if Rule or Conveyance do either?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This was more my point, same with Discreetly Mine. Neither of these horses needs the lead, and who's to say if Rule or Conveyance do either?

Yep. Despite what the Voice Of Reason has to say, the dubious content of the initial post demanded (and probably was fishing for) some level-headed response.

What's flabbergasting to me was that Connemara was mentioned before a more accomplished closer in Dublin.