Zayat Will Be Selling

[randallscott35]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112268.html

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112268.html

Eskendereya is worth approximately $6 million at stud right now, assuming he doesn't win the Derby. I'd love to know where he intends to come up with the remaining $10 million for this year from his current bloodstock.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by philcski

Eskendereya is worth approximately $6 million at stud right now, assuming he doesn't win the Derby. I'd love to know where he intends to come up with the remaining $10 million for this year from his current bloodstock.

What was the name of that plug that was always touted on facebook last year?

[Indian Charlie]

So, he owes $34 mil, but has payments scheduled totalling $64 mil?

Huh?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

Eskendereya is worth approximately $6 million at stud right now, assuming he doesn't win the Derby. I'd love to know where he intends to come up with the remaining $10 million for this year from his current bloodstock.

I dont think the $16 million this year is that big of a stretch considering that Eskendereya could bring $12 million right now. I would love to know where they are coming up with $15 million next year though.

[Cannon Shell]

Zayat's projections also assume that Zayat Stables' stud fee revenue will increase significantly, from $65,000 in 2010 to nearly $5 million by 2014.

The projections also assume significant income from the stable's racetrack performances. The plan projects four starts per horse for 80 percent of the stable's juveniles and six starts for older runners. "Purse income winnings assume 20 percent placing 1st and 30 percent placing either 2nd or 3rd, the documents stipulate. "The average purse size is assumed to be $38,500 (2010), with 3 percent annual increases thereafter. ... In addition, 2010 assumes large purse wins of $2M and 2011-2014 assumes large purse winnings of $2.5M annually."

For lower-quality runners, the plan projects approximately $500,000 annually in revenue from horses sold through the claim box.

Under the plan, Zayat also intends to continue purchasing bloodstock for the stable. The projections assume bloodstock purchases of $2.5 million, $2 million, $1 million, $1 million, and $1 million in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively, as well as the birth of approximately 80 foals through 2012 period.


I would not want to be the guy responsible seeing this plan through

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Zayat's projections also assume that Zayat Stables' stud fee revenue will increase significantly, from $65,000 in 2010 to nearly $5 million by 2014.

The projections also assume significant income from the stable's racetrack performances. The plan projects four starts per horse for 80 percent of the stable's juveniles and six starts for older runners. "Purse income winnings assume 20 percent placing 1st and 30 percent placing either 2nd or 3rd, the documents stipulate. "The average purse size is assumed to be $38,500 (2010), with 3 percent annual increases thereafter. ... In addition, 2010 assumes large purse wins of $2M and 2011-2014 assumes large purse winnings of $2.5M annually."

For lower-quality runners, the plan projects approximately $500,000 annually in revenue from horses sold through the claim box.

Under the plan, Zayat also intends to continue purchasing bloodstock for the stable. The projections assume bloodstock purchases of $2.5 million, $2 million, $1 million, $1 million, and $1 million in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively, as well as the birth of approximately 80 foals through 2012 period.


I would not want to be the guy responsible seeing this plan through

I would not want to be the person being paid through the implementation of this plan.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Zayat's projections also assume that Zayat Stables' stud fee revenue will increase significantly, from $65,000 in 2010 to nearly $5 million by 2014.

The projections also assume significant income from the stable's racetrack performances. The plan projects four starts per horse for 80 percent of the stable's juveniles and six starts for older runners. "Purse income winnings assume 20 percent placing 1st and 30 percent placing either 2nd or 3rd, the documents stipulate. "The average purse size is assumed to be $38,500 (2010), with 3 percent annual increases thereafter. ... In addition, 2010 assumes large purse wins of $2M and 2011-2014 assumes large purse winnings of $2.5M annually."

For lower-quality runners, the plan projects approximately $500,000 annually in revenue from horses sold through the claim box.

Under the plan, Zayat also intends to continue purchasing bloodstock for the stable. The projections assume bloodstock purchases of $2.5 million, $2 million, $1 million, $1 million, and $1 million in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively, as well as the birth of approximately 80 foals through 2012 period.


I would not want to be the guy responsible seeing this plan through

Pletcher is the right man!!! What isn't firing

[Danzig]

so how many dee tee shares at 1500 for eskendereya....lol

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I would not want to be the guy responsible seeing this plan through

A business plan like that was probably responsible for the Chapter 11 in the first place.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont think the $16 million this year is that big of a stretch considering that Eskendereya could bring $12 million right now. I would love to know where they are coming up with $15 million next year though.

So you think Esky stands for $40k at a 3X multiplier? I was projecting more like $30k at a 2X multiplier in this market. Maybe $8mm if they are lucky and someone is willing to overpay.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by philcski

So you think Esky stands for $40k at a 3X multiplier? I was projecting more like $30k at a 2X multiplier in this market. Maybe $8mm if they are lucky and someone is willing to overpay.

He has to win the KD and Travers for this whacky math to potentially be ok

[Riot]

The plan projects four starts per horse for 80 percent of the stable's juveniles and six starts for older runners. "Purse income winnings assume 20 percent placing 1st and 30 percent placing either 2nd or 3rd, the documents stipulate. "The average purse size is assumed to be $38,500 (2010), with 3 percent annual increases thereafter. ... In addition, 2010 assumes large purse wins of $2M and 2011-2014 assumes large purse winnings of $2.5M annually."

Always good to count those Graded wins before they hatch

The Zayat Plan is a great model, though ... I just wrote myself a business plan where I invest $100,000 from my retirement fund in four runners. I assume an average expense of $100/day/horse for about $146,000 per year (I doubt any of them will colic, chip, etc). I figure two of them will win once a month for $10,000 each, so I project purse income winnings of $240,000 a year, for an easy profit of $94,000/year - meaning I break even in just 12 1/2 months. And rest is pure gravy!

I can't understand why people say the horse biz is just an "expensive hobby"?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He has to win the KD and Travers for this whacky math to potentially be ok

Actually not. Best comp in the market right now is First Samurai, and he stands for $30k (down from $40k). The typical price paid is 300 X stud fee, so $9 million. I think the market will no longer support a 300X multiplier, and will adjust down to 200X going forward, so $6 million.

If he wins the Derby and Travers he'd be standing for $50k so a potential price of $10MM-$15MM.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

So you think Esky stands for $40k at a 3X multiplier? I was projecting more like $30k at a 2X multiplier in this market. Maybe $8mm if they are lucky and someone is willing to overpay.

His stud value has to be added to the fact he is an overwhelming fav for the KY Derby. He turned down a legit offer in the neighborhood of 8m prior to the Wood. Since then everything that has happened has made him an even stronger fav for the Derby. The only thing that keeps him from being a $20 million dollar horse is being by Giants Causeway. Remember that RA was sold in the 8-10 million dollar range last year. Prior to her becoming all legendary and stuff...

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

His stud value has to be added to the fact he is an overwhelming fav for the KY Derby. He turned down a legit offer in the neighborhood of 8m prior to the Wood. Since then everything that has happened has made him an even stronger fav for the Derby. The only thing that keeps him from being a $20 million dollar horse is being by Giants Causeway. Remember that RA was sold in the 8-10 million dollar range last year. Prior to her becoming all legendary and stuff...

She was sold after the Oaks effort. Not too shabby an effort

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

His stud value has to be added to the fact he is an overwhelming fav for the KY Derby. He turned down a legit offer in the neighborhood of 8m prior to the Wood. Since then everything that has happened has made him an even stronger fav for the Derby. The only thing that keeps him from being a $20 million dollar horse is being by Giants Causeway. Remember that RA was sold in the 8-10 million dollar range last year. Prior to her becoming all legendary and stuff...

I thought that being the only fast dirt GCauseway was a plus not a negative. While I get the majority if not all of the GC's have been turfers. I figured that he was "good" on dirt made he an overchiever and different and Hence, more commercial?

Wouldn't being the only (so far) GCauseway dirt "champion" be a draw?