4/30: Churchill Downs (1st-12th); Belmont Park (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Frightening forecast for severe weather starting late this afternoon and through Derby Day means this card may be the one to enjoy in its' entirety with tomorrow an unknown. Between Oaks, Rachel Alexandra's second '10 start and three more excellent stakes, there is plenty to like.

The two weeks of 'At the Races' Oaks-Derby coverage wraps this afternoon, and as usual, it's been a deliciously fun fortnight. Hope you have enjoyed the lineups and conversations and insights, and it helps you get started on a successful Triple Crown season. Thanks to the staff at Churchill for an especially warm welcome this year...

Full card look for Churchill below as well as the opening day P4 at Belmont Park. Remember that Andy Serling returns tonight on the NYRA website chat, and will certainly have Derby card thoughts as well opinions on Belmont's first Saturday. Enjoy Oaks-Derby/Belmont Opening Weekend!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Tough spot for a layoff returnee (#2 Ravi's Song; 2-1) to go as favorite; Will play against and look for some of the formful prices here instead..

Best Value: #7 Yonakee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Diamond Song 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Fortune Play 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dixie Pixie 10-1 6th


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)


Most Likely: #1 Rigamaro 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 English Girl 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Azurite 7-2 WON
Super Add: #4 Karen Ann 12-1 10th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Hybrid 9-2 6th
Best Value: #12 Bascom Hall 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Belgrave Square 5-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Gigantos 6-1 7th


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Go for Jan 12-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Fuzzy Britches 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Glowing Report 15-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Souma 3-1 9th


5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Forest Trail 4-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #11 Danzon 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Coulee 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Deputy Darling 15-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-7
3: 5-10-12
4: 3-4-5-8-11
5: 1-4-11

3x3x5x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50


6th: 25th La Troienne (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Morena 20-1 3rd
Next Best #3 Zardana 3-1 5th


7th: 22nd KY Juvenile, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Nina Fever 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Twelve Pack Shelly 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Lou Brissie 5-1 WON


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-5-8-11
5: 1-2-3-4-10-11
6: 4
7: 7-9

6x6x1x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


8th: 16th Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Silver Timber 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Starfish Bay 7-2 6th
Super Add: #10 Central City 12-1 3rd


9th: 7th Alysheba (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 COOL COAL MAN 4-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Chocolate Candy 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Macho Again 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Arson Squad 3-1 WON


10th: 19th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Workin for Hops 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Setsuko 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Saint Eligius 12-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Gleam of Hope 15-1 6th


11th: 136th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby Double, DD, Super)

Only way to approach is to stand against Blind Luck within the race and include her in multis; Big performance first dirt (104 Beyer Fantasy effort) can produce adverse reaction, and though Hollendorfer filly gets desired pace to attack, think she comes back to the pack today; Also standing against Lukas' Tidal Pool who has looked off the past two weeks leading up to this sophomore distaffing standard..

Most Likely: #11 Evening Jewel (10-1): Cassidy miss will stalk and pounce first dirt; Couldn't be better fit for this.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Jody Slew (30-1): Woman among girls physically and will grind out trip; Must for exotics plays.. 13th
Exotics Use: #1 It's Tea Time (15-1): Arnold's Ashland runner-up continues to develop; Saves all the ground.. 9th
Super Adds: #7 Crisp (8-1): Sadler filly has done everything right leading up to weekend; Should advance first dirt.. 7th #12 Ailalea (15-1): Figures to be overlooked and would love it if rains came early.. 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 3-6-7
9: 4
10: 1-6-7-8-9-11
11: 1-2-5-7-11

3x1x6x5 = 90 x .50 = $45


12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Ready to Sing 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Bialy 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Go Pro 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Wyn Jym 15-1 9th
High 5 Play: #2 Awesome Temper 8-1 8th



BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Fortyninegeorgest. 3-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Yukon Gold Rush 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Untopable 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Oedipus O'Neal 15-1 2nd


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Count Catamount 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Fit 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Jess Not Jesse 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Little Alex 8-1 6th


8th: 82nd Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ironman Jon 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Bribon 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Convocation 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Le Grand Cru 15-1 WON


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Ali's Joy 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Gilt Edged 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Jacob's Dream 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Unforgettable P J 20-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 7-10
7: 1-2-4
8: 4-6
9: 1-3-4-7-8-9

2x3x2x6 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[atolunch]

Steve,

Thanks as always for the info and insights. Its been great keeping up with the whirlwind happenings there! Hope you have a very successful weekend.

Are you going to be posting any of the Oaks/Derby Doubles, and/or the Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3's?

Best of luck, enjoy the weekend, and here's hoping Mother Nature cooperates as well for the horses, connections and all those lucky enough to be making the trip this year!

[rpncaine]

Just checked Twinspires, NO PK3's or PK4's are showing up at .50 cent levels! Neither is the ODW Pick-3. Don't know about other ADW's but this is their ADW so I wouldn't count on it.

[lemoncrush]

Steve,
Do you know if Cool Coal Man is running today in the Alysheba, or tomorrow in the CD handicap?

I'm really leaning towards Arson Squad in the Alysheba, as of now.

Good Luck today and all weekend.

[atolunch]

Xpressbet is showing all P3 and P4's today at the .50 level as well as Tri's. They have rolled the Supers over to $1 min.

They also have all the Advance and Two day multis at $1 min.

[atolunch]

Scratches
Race 3 #13 My Piano Man, #14 Infamous Spin, #15 Win It, #16 Sneaky Dreams
Race 4 #6 Mallory Square, #7 Kantstopdancin
Race 5 #8 Rinterval (IRE), #13 Multipass
Race 7 #1 Saturday Dance, #4 Weekend Wildcat, #6 Final Mesa, #8 The Freak
Race 10 #2 Alfarabi, #10 Make Music for Me
Race 12 #4 Slews Sassy, #5 Maria Darlin

[rpncaine]

Funding them now. Also just rechecked Twinspires and either I looked at it wrong or they corrected it, because the PK3 and PK4 are .50c now.

Good Luck

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Steve,

Thanks as always for the info and insights. Its been great keeping up with the whirlwind happenings there! Hope you have a very successful weekend.

Are you going to be posting any of the Oaks/Derby Doubles, and/or the Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3's?

Best of luck, enjoy the weekend, and here's hoping Mother Nature cooperates as well for the horses, connections and all those lucky enough to be making the trip this year!

Larry,

Thanks so much... Has been my pleasure as always to have have the opportunity to be here and share whatever I can generate in terms of opinion. Obviously the DRF team has been utterly generous with their time and contributions: Mike Welsch, Jay Privman, Marty McGee the two weeks, plus Steve Crist and Andy Beyer yesterday. It's been a great couple of weeks and I hope everyone profits from the info that was generated.

In terms of the multi-day bets, the situation is so strange, that I really don't want to recommend plays too seriously. Here's an idea for a $50 play I'll probably punch:

$5 Oaks-Derby Double: 11 with 2-6-10-11-20 ($25)
$1 Oaks-Derby Double: 1-2-5-7-12 with 2-6-10-11-20 ($25)

Best of luck!

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Steve,
Do you know if Cool Coal Man is running today in the Alysheba, or tomorrow in the CD handicap?

I'm really leaning towards Arson Squad in the Alysheba, as of now.

Good Luck today and all weekend.

L/C,

I think Cool Coal Man looks terrific in there, and he's been absolutely on the muscle these 2 weeks... Every gallop I saw was impressive.

Good luck!

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S


6TH

3 Six Gun Sheriff Early
8 Venkman Early


7TH

8 Themanintheglass Early
12 Vindicat Early
13 Run to Grand Ave. Early


8TH

1 (poe) Elusive Warning Early


9TH

2 Dixielore Early
11 Maggie's Prince Early
12 Stone Turtle Early

[atolunch]

Great job with that tri @ Belmont in the 8th.

Hopefully you played and some others tailed. I missed it. Solid day though, good luck tomorrow.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Great job with that tri @ Belmont in the 8th.

Hopefully you played and some others tailed. I missed it. Solid day though, good luck tomorrow.

Thanks Larry. Was a largely poor day with just isolated hits. I couldn't string together winners at all and the day was appropriately punctuated by the photo loss in the Oaks. Hope I didn't steer too many off the cliff. Will try to right the ship today...