Derby-Oaks Weekend Beyers

[hockey2315]

Prepare to be sick. . .

SATURDAY

CD-Kentucky Derby (G1): Super Saver 104 (T. Pletcher/C. Borel)
CD-Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S (G1): General Quarters 100 (T. McCarthy/R. Bejarano)
CD-Humana Distaff S (G1): Mona de Momma 100 (J. Sadler/J. Rosario)
CD-Churchill Downs S (G2): Atta Boy Roy 102 (V. Lund/C. Borel)
CD-Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S (G2): Phola 99 (T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez)
CD-Eight Belles S (G3): Buckleupbuttercup 96 (E. Kenneally/J. Leparoux)

FRIDAY

CD-Kentucky Oaks(G1): Blind Luck 94 (J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano)
CD-La Troienne S (G2): Unrivaled Belle 103 (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
CD-American Turf S (G2): Doubles Partner 97 (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez)
CD-Alysheba S (G3): Arson Squad 101 (R. Dutrow/P. Lopez)
CD-Churchill Downs Turf Sprint S (G3): Silver Timber 99 (C. Brown/J. Leparoux)
CD-Kentucky Juvenile S (G3): Lou Brissie 74 (N. Howard/J. Velazquez)

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Oaks Day

Unrivaled Belle - 103
Lou Brissie - 74
Silver Timber - 99
Arson Squad - 101
Doubles Partner - 97
Blind Luck - 94

If this isn't too obvious, does that mean Rachel pulled in 103 as well? I assumed so. I have a certain level of knowledge about various speed figures calculations, and then I call it a day. Clearly the level is somewhere along the lines of 'Wow 103>102 huh? Dunno how they got that but I sure do know math.' If two horses come down the stretch differently, but hit the wire together, does that automatically give them the same number because it doesn't really indicate nuances of that final furlong. Or does that not matter with Beyers?

Gonna have to give in and apply myself to learning more about that stuff I guess. All I know right now is dosage is soooo 1995. I end up doing it the hard way and looking at the smaller parts these guys probably throw into their system to get the number in the first place.

[hockey2315]

What has he been right about? His whole thing is that figures are worthless, right? Which of these horses deserved a higher fig? They highlight a general mediocrity in the sport right now, not a problem with the figures themselves.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What has he been right about? His whole thing is that figures are worthless, right? Which of these horses deserved a higher fig? They highlight a general mediocrity in the sport right now, not a problem with the figures themselves.

Hard to believe that someone with your background actually buys into the figures thing, as presently constituted. Unless, of course, you're the Christopher Klavius of the present tbred handicapping paradigm. (Actually, Serling probably has a lock on that role.)

[hockey2315]

I don't buy into the conspiracy theory that Beyers are doctored for some unknown and sinister purpose. It's more likely ineptitude than anything else. I like Beyers and use Beyers because to be a contrarian I want to look at the same data as everyone else and see something different.

[hockey2315]

I'm pretty sure the Beyer guys would have NO problem giving the Derby winner a lower figure if that's what he actually deserved.

[brianwspencer]

I wanna see what Drugs has to say.

I'm no speed figure expert, but that seems awwwwwwwwfully generous.

And I'd have used about 345 more "w"s, but didn't want to take up space to get my point across.

[Gauchos0522]

After looking into the card again it still seems high to me. Would like to hear some of the better opinions on figuremaking about it. Looks like they split it after the CD handicap which I think they had the track about 8 points fast for the Humana and CD sprint. Curious to hear some explination.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wanna see what Drugs has to say.

I'm no speed figure expert, but that seems awwwwwwwwfully generous.

And I'd have used about 345 more "w"s, but didn't want to take up space to get my point across.

He's still probably trying to wrap his head around how Rachel could lose The La Troienne, so don't expect to see him for awhile.

[MISTERGEE]

It looks like the 2 previous 7 furlong races were rated as a minus 6 and a minus 8 on the variant, whereas the derby was a plus 7 beyer variant

[tector]

I saw the other thread about the final time (2:04.45). In that thread this fact gave rise to the expectation that the BSF should be "low" (sub-100). Apparently that idea has bled over here.

Leading up to today's race ESPN Classic was showing various "classic" Derbies. I happened to watch the episode about 1989 (which was only the second Derby I was able to bet). You remember 1989...Sunday Silence over Easy Goer? You know...two of the horses enshrined in that place across the street from Saratoga?

The final time was 2:05.

Now, I have no idea if this 104 figure from today is reasonable. So far most of what I have read here, however, is complete, useless jerking off. This is just one instance where Drugs is sorely missed, since I could at least count on a sane (yes, sane) analysis of such a thing from him. But in lieu of that, let me make a couple of epistemological points.

Speed figures are created by a mix of art and science--and that mixture varies by how many variables change during the course of the data to be analyzed (i.e. the final times from the race card being "figured"). When Beyer declared speed figures to be "the way, the truth and the light" many years ago (early 70s), he basically had in mind analyzing times from fast dirt surfaces. Data derived from such races have the largest "science" component--you generally don't have to do much tinkering to the analysis.

But, alas, people want figures for races not run under such ideal conditions. So you have to derive figures for race cards where the dirt track undergoes substantial changes during the course of the card, most frequently due to weather--like today. And people want figures for turf races, which (i) usually offer smaller data sets and (ii) tend to be run substantially differently than dirt races. And now we have syn races, which (to varying degrees, depending on the specific artificial surface) also are not run like typical dirt-fast races.

My point is this: when you get way from fast dirt races, you are adding more variables which require comparatively more interpretative "art" and thus less "science". It can't be helped--tweaked, maybe, but essentially there has to be a wider range of discretion employed. It is as simple as that.

If you want absolute (and false) certainty, go to church, not a race track. Read the Bible, not the DRF. But it is childish to assume that people are deliberately "cooking" the figs for some nefarious reason--why would Beyer do this? He's already advanced the arguments that this a mediocre group of horses, and (many, many times) that American breeders have outsmarted themselves over the past 40 years or so, creating a breed that lacks the requisite stamina to compete at "classic" distances. I think he'd like figures that confirm his hypothesis, not over-inflated ones. Moreover, figures are not astrophysics--relatively average folks can make there own and expose obviously artificially inflated figs, at least if it happens on a regular basis. In modern terminology, figs are the product of an "open source" process that anyone can duplicate. Given that, there is only so much BS you can pull off every so often and still get away with it.


So if somebody--taking into account the obviously variable conditions affecting CD today--makes a good empirical case for fig inflation, I'll be happy to consider it. But I haven't seen anything like that here.

Personally, I pretty much toss all figs from race cards like today's at CD--the data set is just subject to too many variables. But that is not the same as questioning the good faith of those who try to make such figs. People do the best they can, and you can use it or not. I am much more likely to give more weight to my own visual impressions (also highly imprecise) and put a big asterisk next to the whole frigging mess.

Next race.

[tector]

PS:

There was 2 hours and 38 minutes from the time the previous "dirt" race (the 9th) went off to the the time the Derby went off. Forget the variation in weather, with the the rain, the sun coming out, etc. How much frigging track maintenance was there in 2 and a half hours?

Again, I have no idea--which is why I generally say "toss the data". But since you all want figs, somebody has to try to do it regardless. So, at least, try to save the floating of conspiracy theories to where an actual, realistic motive makes sense.

[largo1]

Originally Posted by tector

I saw the other thread about the final time (2:04.45). In that thread this fact gave rise to the expectation that the BSF should be "low" (sub-100). Apparently that idea has bled over here.

Leading up to today's race ESPN Classic was showing various "classic" Derbies. I happened to watch the episode about 1989 (which was only the second Derby I was able to bet). You remember 1989...Sunday Silence over Easy Goer? You know...two of the horses enshrined in that place across the street from Saratoga?

The final time was 2:05.

Now, I have no idea if this 104 figure from today is reasonable. So far most of what I have read here, however, is complete, useless jerking off. This is just one instance where Drugs is sorely missed, since I could at least count on a sane (yes, sane) analysis of such a thing from him. But in lieu of that, let me make a couple of epistemological points.

Speed figures are created by a mix of art and science--and that mixture varies by how many variables change during the course of the data to be analyzed (i.e. the final times from the race card being "figured"). When Beyer declared speed figures to be "the way, the truth and the light" many years ago (early 70s), he basically had in mind analyzing times from fast dirt surfaces. Data derived from such races have the largest "science" component--you generally don't have to do much tinkering to the analysis.

But, alas, people want figures for races not run under such ideal conditions. So you have to derive figures for race cards where the dirt track undergoes substantial changes during the course of the card, most frequently due to weather--like today. And people want figures for turf races, which (i) usually offer smaller data sets and (ii) tend to be run substantially differently than dirt races. And now we have syn races, which (to varying degrees, depending on the specific artificial surface) also are not run like typical dirt-fast races.

My point is this: when you get way from fast dirt races, you are adding more variables which require comparatively more interpretative "art" and thus less "science". It can't be helped--tweaked, maybe, but essentially there has to be a wider range of discretion employed. It is as simple as that.

If you want absolute (and false) certainty, go to church, not a race track. Read the Bible, not the DRF. But it is childish to assume that people are deliberately "cooking" the figs for some nefarious reason--why would Beyer do this? He's already advanced the arguments that this a mediocre group of horses, and (many, many times) that American breeders have outsmarted themselves over the past 40 years or so, creating a breed that lacks the requisite stamina to compete at "classic" distances. I think he'd like figures that confirm his hypothesis, not over-inflated ones. Moreover, figures are not astrophysics--relatively average folks can make there own and expose obviously artificially inflated figs, at least if it happens on a regular basis. In modern terminology, figs are the product of an "open source" process that anyone can duplicate. Given that, there is only so much BS you can pull off every so often and still get away with it.


So if somebody--taking into account the obviously variable conditions affecting CD today--makes a good empirical case for fig inflation, I'll be happy to consider it. But I haven't seen anything like that here.

Personally, I pretty much toss all figs from race cards like today's at CD--the data set is just subject to too many variables. But that is not the same as questioning the good faith of those who try to make such figs. People do the best they can, and you can use it or not. I am much more likely to give more weight to my own visual impressions (also highly imprecise) and put a big asterisk next to the whole frigging mess.

Next race.

LOVE it!! Thanks.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm pretty sure the Beyer guys would have NO problem giving the Derby winner a lower figure if that's what he actually deserved.

Honestly... these figs are focking terrible. A JOKE. There is NO WAY the Derby was the fastest race on the card. The CDH was 16 points faster on raw time, how the F can they make it two points SLOWER?!? I was at CD and YOU CANNOT make the argument that there was enough rain to change the surface, it hardly rained between the 9th and 11th.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm pretty sure the Beyer guys would have NO problem giving the Derby winner a lower figure if that's what he actually deserved.

I would have thought so too, but it is not to be. If this is really a "final time" only number, it is pretty bad.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I would have thought so too, but it is not to be. If this is really a "final time" only number, it is pretty bad.

Another problem with final time numbers is they don't take into account any biases a horse may be running against. Atta Boy Roy was the only horse to wire a field all day on a visably tiring and closer's friendly track, he received a 101 for his effort but it may as well been higher than the number he received, which was still 3 lower than the pedrestrian derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by CSC

Another problem with final time numbers is they don't take into account any biases a horse may be running against. Atta Boy Roy was the only horse to wire a field all day on a visably tiring and closer's friendly track, he received a 101 for his effort but it may as well been higher than the number he received, which was still 3 lower than the pedrestrian derby.

That isn't even remotely a " problem " with figures. Biases, should they actually exist ( ya know, unlike yesterday at Churchill ), aren't quantifiable.

Accurate final time speed figures do exactly what they purport to do. It is only misinformed people ( many of them, seemingly, internet posters ) that don't understand them and somehow blame them for things they simply are not.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Beyer IMO has turned into a joke, I wish I could hide beyers on my drf account, maybe I can, Im going to have to look into it. The Cali horses mostly deserve higher figs and they prove it FTD, Super Saver 104? Come on at least 3 different people said 95-98 max range, is everyone wrong? The track was not all that slow, the time was pathetic. I am convinced he will not let a Derby winner not be triple digits.

So where are your figures or numbers or whatever you use(Dartboard numbers)? Please tell us what your magical system is that makes you so successful to prove them wrong.

[ibet2win]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Beyer IMO has turned into a joke, I wish I could hide beyers on my drf account, maybe I can, Im going to have to look into it. The Cali horses mostly deserve higher figs and they prove it FTD, Super Saver 104? Come on at least 3 different people said 95-98 max range, is everyone wrong? The track was not all that slow, the time was pathetic. I am convinced he will not let a Derby winner not be triple digits.

The Beyer speed figures are useless in my opinion. After all, time only matters when you are in jail. Andy Beyer has made a mint selling them i guess and good for him, this is America and we love to buy useless things we don't need lol. The only thing more useless i have seen is that Moss Pace Figure crap. I normally just pretend those are ink smudges on my paper.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ibet2win

The Beyer speed figures are useless in my opinion. After all, time only matters when you are in jail. Andy Beyer has made a mint selling them i guess and good for him, this is America and we love to buy useless things we don't need lol. The only thing more useless i have seen is that Moss Pace Figure crap. I normally just pretend those are ink smudges on my paper.

So what do you use?