8/8: Saratoga (Day 15-Vanderbilt; $253k C/O)

Kasept · #1 08-08-2010, 04:36 AM

Nearly 37,000 thronged the Old Spa on an exquisite Adirondack afternoon Saturday, and only those that were hoping for a definitive Whitney Handicap performance by Quality Road left disappointed. Indeed, it was Al Stall, Garrett Gomez and Team Claiborne who sipped champagne after the Whitney, as Ned Evans' heralded homebred came up empty at 2-5 with not a single visible or viable excuse. The race appeared totally in the control of John Velazquez and the Todd Pletcher trainee while mundane fractions of :24.2, :48.0 and 1:11.4 were posting. But when the real running started off the turn, Quality Road had no 4th gear on which to rely. Instead of motoring away from opponents as he did in the Donn Handicap, Quality Road kept grinding away at the same even pace which simply didn't prove enough against the steady advance of the Arch four year old. The win was particularly notable for the likable Stall, who has been criticized in the past for travails on the Derby stomp or falling short in spots like this. It proved a popular victory, and with one start before the Breeders' Cup Classic on his home track, Blame looks to have placed himself squarely in the Horse of the Year debate. The top pair earned a Beyer figure of 111 for their exciting exploit.

The Test was the other G1 on the card, and it also may set up a horse for a Championship run. Eric Guillot's Champagne d'Oro annexed her second premium stake of the year to go with her Acorn shocker on Belmont Day, and this was another effort which was simply stunning. On the pace and in an immediate battle with Pica Slew from the bell, Champagne d'Oro doffed the Florida invader through fractions of :22.2 and :44.2. But just as in the Acorn, Champagne d'Oro powered through the stretch while closers vainly tried to reach her, effectively running opponents off their feet again. The win was the first G1 victory of Miguel Mena's career, and Guillot expects to try elders in the Ballerina before returning to Churchill for the BC Filly & Mare Sprint. Wins in those events might indeed be enough to earn Medaglia d'Oro miss some hardware in January.

It was an interesting and curiously successful day of wagering Saturday too, with the P4's proving unhittable, but several nice prices and P3's carrying the bankroll. The early action proved particularly fruitful, as Best Value play Pagan Ruler ($18.40) in the 2nd helped boost a $373.00 opening P3 between $14.20 Brother Bird and $8.80 Hear the Footsteps. Angel Penna interrupted the skein and the early P4 ticket in the 4th with Craven Cadin, but that helped trip the best score of the day. Having been knocked out of the early quad, I started a P3 which I may not have played had I been alive into the anchor leg. Overlaid Best Value top choice Montana Knight ($21.60) was a big boost on the win tote, and the Hushion-West Point winner started the lucrative P3 run combining with Chad Brown's latest success (3rd choice Tiz Blessed, $6.90) and Bill Mott's 4,000th winner (2nd choice Mystic ($12.60). The P3 brought back another $325.50, and though I didn't record any more quality hits thereafter, the day was still better than average. Hope you did well! P6 carryover went a second day and starts at $253k with today's 5th...

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched starter to kick off card; Favorites like 5-2 Double Eagle may win, but they aren't where you land in scrambles like these trying to make money..

Most Likely: #2 Peahi 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Yankee Fortune 10-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #9 Versailles Road 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Mizzen's Wake 20-1 8th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Some nicely pedigreed state breds including Roddy Valente and Bruce Levine's half to 5X SW Bustin Stones..

Bustin Rocks has SCR'd..

Most Likely: #3 Read the Contract 5-1 7th-Eased
Best Value: #6 Cooper River 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Hysterical Cat 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #7 Crea's Law 5-1 2nd

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Rock America 8-5 5th
Next Best: #8 Enchanted Circle 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 R J Hope 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Mill Bay 8-1 7th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Several interesting babies signed on here including Juddmonte miss Classy Touch, a Maria's Mon out of the wonderful Frankel favorite Flute; Ned Evans' homebred Summer Laugh (Pletcher) who is out of outstanding racemare Summer Colony; Asmussen-Heiligbrodt second time starter Time Counts who is a half to the fast at 2 Rated Feisty and Hennig second out Nicky's Way who counts Vision and Verse as a sibling..

Most Likely: #7 Summer Laugh 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #8 Time Counts 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Sovereign Crisis 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Hey Valentina 12-1 7th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$253 P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #10 I Am Prince Rahy 10-1: Sharp breezing at OBS.. 7th
Next Best: #2 R Boy Bill 7-2: Showed speed in well bet debut.. WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #3 SCR
Super Add: #4 Perregaux 6-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-6
3: 2-8
4: 5-6-7-8
5: 2-3-10

3x2x4x3 = $72

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Expect SCR of #3 Tutti Va Bene..

Most Likely: #1 Holy Moment 5-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Kaleigh Rose 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Queen of Protocol 12-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Judicial Leader 12-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendous race with 7-8 of the 11 identifiable as winners, and 5-2 favorite Silk Route not appreciably any better than the next 4-5 choices!

Most Likely: #6 Senada 5-1: Respect Tagg with improving miss.. 4th
Best Value: #3 Vee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Silk Route 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Elle Special 20-1 7th

8th: 19th Honorable Miss (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

OK short group of 5, but it's hard to figure why this event lacked participants..

Most Likely: #4 Secret Gypsy 4-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #2 Warbling 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 One Smokin Lady 12-1 5th

9th: 26th Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Whatever the G2 above lacks, this sprint makes up for with a fascinating cast of outstanding sprinters. Summit of Speed grads Big Drama and Mambo Meister match up big fig producers Majesticperfection and Bribon, as well as Dubai returnee Gayego. And note that Sid Attard brings OK Kennedy Road winner Smokey Fire south for potential jump up first dirt start. Wow. Should be terrific..

Most Likely: #5 Majestic Perfection 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #7 Smokey Fire 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Big Drama 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Mambo Meister 12-1 6th

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #9 Strategic Sue 6-1: Gets huge rider upgrade.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Moonwalk Beauty 3-1: C. Martin deadly off brief freshenings.. WON
Exotics Use: #3 Nice and Naughty 5-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Heck 4-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-10
6: 1-5-8
7: 3-4-6
8: 4
9: 5-7
10: 8-9

2x3x3x1x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-6-7-8
8: 2-4
9: 5-7
10: 3-8-9

6x2x2x3 = $72 $1 P4 Paid $137.00

Good luck!
Steve

RockHardTen1985 · #2 08-08-2010, 10:00 AM

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Some nicely pedigreed state breds including Roddy Valente and Bruce Levine's half to 5X SW Bustin Stones..

Most Likely: #2 Bustin Rocks 3-1
Best Value: #6 Cooper River 6-1
Next Best: #3 Read the Contract 5-1
Super Add: #1 Crea's Law 5-1

Steve, Crea's Law is the #7, the #1 is Todds other horse, the firster that JV jumps on. I think this race is all 1-3,3-1.

hockey2315 · #3 08-08-2010, 10:03 AM

Cohen won on the "other" Pletcher baby at 9-1 the other day. . . and the second timers have been dominant. I'll use that one and the Kimmel. If I were to use a third I'd use the Violette.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 08-08-2010, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Cohen won on the "other" Pletcher baby at 9-1 the other day. . . and the second timers have been dominant. I'll use that one and the Kimmel. If I were to use a third I'd use the Violette.

That race the other day was run over an incredible bias, the second place finisher, the half to Winslow Homer will be much better long term. Kimmel is a disaster, but good luck. Ill take Rick.

NTamm1215 · #5 08-08-2010, 10:46 AM

Between how strongly Asmussen has done with 2nd time starting 2YOs at Saratoga and how much the firsters' pedigrees indicate they're going to need time, I think Time Counts is going to be very tough in the 4th.

I'll let Gales tell us if Miss Smarty Pants is ready to go since he seems to be in with that barn but Devotion Unbridled lost her debut. Her first foal to race was 0-3 at the age of 2. The extent of Benzel's accomplishments with 2YO firsters over the last five years is a win by Tiz True in a turf route in November 2008. This is a horse who's 3-1 on the morning line!

As far as Classy Touch, Flute lost her debut and none of her five foals to race have won at first asking.

Summer Colony's first foal to race needed three starts to break her maiden. Summer Colony herself needed 7 races to break her maiden.

That leaves you with Sovereign Crisis, who worked well at the sale prompting that gigantic purchase price. Her dam was unraced but her prior two foals to race both lost their debuts and Sir Silver Fox, her first foal, needed six races to break his maiden.

Of course, the board is going to say a lot about this race but the public completely whiffed in the 6th yesterday as the entry was heavily played from the start. Once they found Chad Brown's horse he was bet down to co-favoritism and kept the tremendous run going he's on with firsters.

Fun race.

NT

RockHardTen1985 · #6 08-08-2010, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Between how strongly Asmussen has done with 2nd time starting 2YOs at Saratoga and how much the firsters' pedigrees indicate they're going to need time, I think Time Counts is going to be very tough in the 4th.

I'll let Gales tell us if Miss Smarty Pants is ready to go since he seems to be in with that barn but Devotion Unbridled lost her debut. Her first foal to race was 0-3 at the age of 2. The extent of Benzel's accomplishments with 2YO firsters over the last five years is a win by Tiz True in a turf route in November 2008. This is a horse who's 3-1 on the morning line!

As far as Classy Touch, Flute lost her debut and none of her five foals to race have won at first asking.

Summer Colony's first foal to race needed three starts to break her maiden. Summer Colony herself needed 7 races to break her maiden.

That leaves you with Sovereign Crisis, who worked well at the sale prompting that gigantic purchase price. Her dam was unraced but her prior two foals to race both lost their debuts and Sir Silver Fox, her first foal, needed six races to break his maiden.

Of course, the board is going to say a lot about this race but the public completely whiffed in the 6th yesterday as the entry was heavily played from the start. Once they found Chad Brown's horse he was bet down to co-favoritism and kept the tremendous run going he's on with firsters.

Fun race.

NT

Do you know who owns the Chad Brown?

hockey2315 · #7 08-08-2010, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Between how strongly Asmussen has done with 2nd time starting 2YOs at Saratoga and how much the firsters' pedigrees indicate they're going to need time, I think Time Counts is going to be very tough in the 4th.

I'll let Gales tell us if Miss Smarty Pants is ready to go since he seems to be in with that barn but Devotion Unbridled lost her debut. Her first foal to race was 0-3 at the age of 2. The extent of Benzel's accomplishments with 2YO firsters over the last five years is a win by Tiz True in a turf route in November 2008. This is a horse who's 3-1 on the morning line!

As far as Classy Touch, Flute lost her debut and none of her five foals to race have won at first asking.

Summer Colony's first foal to race needed three starts to break her maiden. Summer Colony herself needed 7 races to break her maiden.

That leaves you with Sovereign Crisis, who worked well at the sale prompting that gigantic purchase price. Her dam was unraced but her prior two foals to race both lost their debuts and Sir Silver Fox, her first foal, needed six races to break his maiden.

Of course, the board is going to say a lot about this race but the public completely whiffed in the 6th yesterday as the entry was heavily played from the start. Once they found Chad Brown's horse he was bet down to co-favoritism and kept the tremendous run going he's on with firsters.

Fun race.

NT

The 8 wouldn't shock me at all, but I'm going to use the two longshot who have run before and then protect with the 8 in exactas. Nicky's Way has pedigree appeal getting more ground considering her sib was a router, and the first few strides of her debut piqued my interest. She shot out of the gate, but then quickly dropped out of it. I'm almost positive this was a reaction to the muddy track-she was completely spinning her wheels. There's clearly more ability here-and more early speed-than meets the eye and Hennig already brought home a bomb second timer last week.

The 6 exits the same race as Nicky's Way and I think she also had trouble gripping the track. She stayed in it a little longer, earning a 92 early pace fig, and the added blinkers make me think she has to be gunned early. She chased a horse in her debut that might be ok, and owns the highest BSF of the three that have run before, for whatever that's worth.

hockey2315 · #8 08-08-2010, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

That race the other day was run over an incredible bias, the second place finisher, the half to Winslow Homer will be much better long term. Kimmel is a disaster, but good luck. Ill take Rick.

Kimmel has some pretty nice stats w/ debuting 2yo's at Saratoga no matter how you slice them.

The rest of your post shows a huge misunderstanding of how to play baby races. The "bias" thing is irrelevant whether or not it's accurate. You want horses with a lot of speed-which the Forestry ridden by Cohen had-because these races are almost always won by speed horses or stalkers, especially at the shorter distances. What they will do in the future is meaningless and the best types to play against are the ones who are bred to be good in the future and good going longer. The first thing I do when I handicap one of these races is go through and pick out all the pedigrees that can't win going short, and they're almost always horses owned by Darley, Shadwell, the Phipps', etc... and trained by weaker first out trainers. But they still get bet by people who see their potential or price tag rather than their ability to get five furlongs first time out. There's a reason why guys like Wesley Ward and Violette (Klaravich/Lawrence) dominate baby races-because they're only concerned with the short term, rather than the future. I think it's a terrible strategy when you look at how many Violette maiden winners with decent price tags are never heard from again, unless he and Ward are selling them all to Sheikh Mo. I doubt that, though. He's clueless, but not that clueless.

Dahoss · #9 08-08-2010, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Kimmel has some pretty nice stats w/ debuting 2yo's at Saratoga no matter how you slice them.

The rest of your post shows a huge misunderstanding of how to play baby races. The "bias" thing is irrelevant whether or not it's accurate. You want horses with a lot of speed-which the Forestry ridden by Cohen had-because these races are almost always won by speed horses or stalkers, especially at the shorter distances. What they will do in the future is meaningless and the best types to play against are the ones who are bred to be good in the future and good going longer. The first thing I do when I handicap one of these races is go through and pick out all the pedigrees that can't win going short, and they're almost always horses owned by Darley, Shadwell, the Phipps', etc... and trained by weaker first out trainers. But they still get bet by people who see their potential or price tag rather than their ability to get five furlongs first time out. There's a reason why guys like Wesley Ward and Violette (Klaravich/Lawrence) dominate baby races-because they're only concerned with the short term, rather than the future. I think it's a terrible strategy when you look at how many Violette maiden winners with decent price tags are never heard from again, unless he and Ward are selling them all to Sheikh Mo. I doubt that, though. He's clueless, but not that clueless.

Well said.