8/28 (SAR): Travers Day

[Kasept]

8th (3:30) Ballston Spa H. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J 118 L
2 Danzon Solis A 118 L
3 Phola Dominguez R A 120 L
4 Silver Reunion Maragh R 118 L
5 Strike the Bell Prado E S 118 L
6 Scolara Desormeaux K J 118 L
7 Dynaslew Coa E M 118 L
8 Cherokee Queen Leparoux J R 118 L
9 Maram Lezcano J 118 L
10 Mekong Melody (IRE) Velazquez J R 120



9th (4:05) Victory Ride S. (G3)

6 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Kid Kate Prado E S 120 L
2 My Jen Leparoux J R 120 L
3 Rapport Garcia M 116 L
4 Sister Dawn Maragh R 116 L
5 Worstcasescenario Garcia Alan 120 L
6 Simply Spiteful Lezcano J 118 L
7 Beyondallboundarys Borel C H 120 L
8 Touching Beauty Castellano J J 123 L
9 Katy Now Velazquez J R 118 L



10th (4:38) Ballerina H. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Rightly So Velasquez C 117 L
2 Warbling Castellano J J 119 L
3 Jessica Is Back Trujillo E 122 L
4 Informed Decision Leparoux J R 119 L
5 Qualia Maragh R 115 L
6 Pretty Prolific Prado E S 117 Blk-Off L
7 Devil by Design Desormeaux K J 115 L
8 First Passage Bridgmohan J V 117 L



11th (5:10) King's Bishop S. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Latigo Shore Dominguez R A 117 L
2 Hurricane Ike Borel C H 119 L
3 D' Funnybone Prado E S 123 L
4 Discreetly Mine Velazquez J R 123 L
5 Bulldogger Garcia M 117 L
6 Bank Merger Garcia Alan 117 L
7 In Jack's Memory Mena M 117 L



12th (5:45) 141st Travers S. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Miner's Reserve Cohen D 126 L
2 Trappe Shot Garcia Alan 126 L
3 Admiral Alex Desormeaux K J 126 L
4 First Dude Dominguez R A 126 Blk-On L
5 A Little Warm Velazquez J R 126 L
6 Ice Box Leparoux J R 126 L
7 Afleet Express Castellano J J 126 L
8 Fly Down Lezcano J 126 L
9 Friend Or Foe Maragh R 126 L
10 Afleet Again Velasquez C 126 L
11 Super Saver Borel C H 126 L

[fpsoxfan]

Could shape up to be a very interesting race. I really can't see anything being less than 3-1.

[dalakhani]

A decent price on the derby exacta perhaps?

[Dahoss]

Should be a great betting race. I thought I had read last week Miners Reserve was not running. With him in the race there does appear to be a decent amount of speed. I wouldn't leave Ice Box off of any tickets.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Should be a great betting race. I thought I had read last week Miners Reserve was not running. With him in the race there does appear to be a decent amount of speed. I wouldn't leave Ice Box off of any tickets.

I wonder if Trickmeister's not running figured into a decision to perhaps run Miners Reserve.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wonder if Trickmeister's not running figured into a decision to perhaps run Miners Reserve.

Makes sense. I'm just surprised Admiral Alex didn't scare more people off.

[tjfla]

1 Miner's Reserve 12/1
2 Trappe Shot 4/1
3 Admiral Alex 12/1
4 First Dude 8/1
5 A Little Warm 7/2
6 Ice Box 10/1
7 Afleet Express 7/1
8 Fly Down 8/1
9 Friend or Foe 15/1
10 Afleet Again 30/1
11 Super Saver 6/1

[randallscott35]

The Admiral/all/all

[clyde]

I wonder if Trickmeister's not running figured into a decision to perhaps run Miners Reserve.



We expect better from you.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by tjfla

1 Miner's Reserve 12/1
2 Trappe Shot 4/1
3 Admiral Alex 12/1
4 First Dude 8/1
5 A Little Warm 7/2
6 Ice Box 10/1
7 Afleet Express 7/1
8 Fly Down 8/1
9 Friend or Foe 15/1
10 Afleet Again 30/1
11 Super Saver 6/1

If these odds are even close to what we will get, I will be thrilled. I have no interest in the three horses with the lowest odds.

Paul

[Travis Stone]

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

[randallscott35]

The whole card is absolutely terrific. Excited.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

Would not be a surprise. Most of them would not surprise me. Distance might help?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Pace projections for the Travers based solely on prior pace figures:

After 6 furlongs (4fs left to go at this point)

Leader: Miner's Reserve (1.25 lengths)

2nd place: A Little Warm (1.25 behind leader)

3rd place: Friend or Foe (3 behind leader)

4th place: Super Saver (4 behind leader)

5th place: First Dude (5 behind leader)

6th place: Trappe Shot (5.5 behind leader)

7th place: Afleet Express (5.75 behind leader)

8th place: Afleet Again (8 behind leader)

9th place: Fly Down (9.5 behind leader)

10th place: Ice Box (10.5 behind leader)

11th place: Admiral Alex (15.5 behind leader)


Obvioulsy - Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm have wildly superior early speed to the rest of this field. Because they avoided a duel last time, and each lollygagged relative to their strong speed .. they stayed on to finish 1-2 at 9fs.

First Dude has all 1's on his form in his last three races and gets blinkers - but he's been setting slowpoke paces on unpressured leads in his last 3. Even though Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm are much faster .. those two will be under strong restraint and there's no way FD will be 5 back early like his numbers say.

There's also no way Admiral Alex will be 15+ back after six furlongs - he will have to work MUCH harder to stay in a competitive spot this time.. that should impact his performance negatively and he'll be lucky to run back to that 87 he ran last time.

The distance and pace should perfectly suit Fly Down. He's my pick.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

I'm done with First Dude.

Since I'm not sold on A Little Warm going a mile and a quarter, I'm going with Afleet Express.


Two highly regarded 2yo's go in allowance races earlier in the card, and probably take money- and I don't like either of them in these spots. Could be good opportunities.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm done with First Dude.

Since I'm not sold on A Little Warm going a mile and a quarter, I'm going with Afleet Express.


Two highly regarded 2yo's go in allowance races earlier in the card, and probably take money- and I don't like either of them in these spots. Could be good opportunities.

Ka-pow

[GPK]

I see Film Makers first runner is making his debut in the 3rd.

[tjfla]

With Miner's Reserve in the 1 hole,First Dude should be out front pretty easy. Doubt he wins but gotta think this sets up just like the Belmont where he hits the board.

I also am liking Fly Down in this spot(just like the Belmont),there will be more speed up front then the Jim Dandy however I could see Afleet Express come flying up as well at the end

Should be a great betting race no matter what

[CSC]

Super Saver has a bad post but if Borel can get him to slide over into a good spot and track the likely speed, he wins.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

We expect this from you.