Can someone please explain this?

[my miss storm cat]

Okay let's pretend that I'm 5 years old or not all there or something.

I once asked someone what this means and they explained it but i didn't know what the hell they were saying so I'd like to try again.

Splitting the variant...

Anyone?

Remember... in very simple language.

Thanks.

[blackthroatedwind]

It happens when the speed of the track changes intraday, and thus a different variant is used for different parts of the card ( or different races ) when you calculate speed figures.

For example, a track speeds up after the 4th race, so one variant is used for the first 4 races, and another for races 5 and on.

[my miss storm cat]

Oh my God okay that makes sense but why is it called splitting?

I'm not trying to be cute here... I really don't get that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Oh my God okay that makes sense but why is it called splitting?

"Splitting the variant" is probably not the best term for what's being done.

It's the race day that is split into 2 parts. You have one variant for the first bunch of races and a 2nd variant for the remaining races. (before and after a deluge, for instance).

A track that's drying out might have multiple "splits".

--Dunbar

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

"Splitting the variant" is probably not the best term for what's being done.

It's the race day that is split into 2 parts. You have one variant for the first bunch of races and a 2nd variant for the remaining races. (before and after a deluge, for instance).

A track that's drying out might have multiple "splits".

--Dunbar

And of course that is the problem. I didn't mean it did not exist...of course it does...but where you make the split makes all the difference. It's really just nonsense for people who haven't seen the races for themselves. IMO.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

And of course that is the problem. I didn't mean it did not exist...of course it does...but where you make the split makes all the difference. It's really just nonsense for people who haven't seen the races for themselves. IMO.

You probably shouldn't have an opinion. IMO.

[chucklestheclown]

The best I will do.
http://www.quickplayhorseracingsoftw...nts_part_1.asp

[my miss storm cat]

Maybe I should just accept that this is something I'll never undestand (?).

It's too abstract.

I read the first paragraph and I'm wondering well how are they coming up with expected normal time anyway.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Maybe I should just accept that this is something I'll never undestand (?).

It's too abstract.

I read the first paragraph and I'm wondering well how are they coming up with expected normal time anyway.

Young lady...you are not supposed to understand it because it may not even exist. You are fine doing what you are doing. Trust Me.

But this is plain english:
Certain complications in the calculations of daily track variants are well-known and have been widely reported. On days when the track surface has been fast early and slow later, or vice versa, figure handicappers split the variant. Sprints might be Fast 3 for races one to five, but Slow 3 for races six to nine. Splitting the variants to reflect track conditions at different points in the racing day can be important and greatly advantageous.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

Young lady...you are not supposed to understand it because it may not even exist. You are fine doing what you are doing. Trust Me.

It may not exist?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

It may not exist?

Try putting that poster on ignore.

The concept is really very simple. The speed of the track can change during the day....just as it changes from day to day. There are obvious reasons for this.....rain during the day is the most blatant. A significant change in wind conditions is another. Also, perhaps a track is watered excessively and/or raked differently at some point in the middle of the card. This, too, could change the speed of the course.

However, why only helps explain how it happens. The simple fact is it does happen....and in order to make accurate speed figures this has to be taken into account. There can, and will, be disagreements over the specific usage of split variants but it is logical to understand that they exist.

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Maybe I should just accept that this is something I'll never undestand (?).

It's too abstract.

I read the first paragraph and I'm wondering well how are they coming up with expected normal time anyway.

The way they calculate an expected normal time is quite clever. They let a few of the most consistent horses set it. Cool thing is the horse can totally suck as long as it totally sucks in roughly the same fashion each time. You can use a bottom of the barrel maiden claimer or a stakes horse. Doesn't matter as long as they are reliable to run similar races pretty much every time. Let's say there are 80 horse running on a card. Variant makers will find a half dozen who,no matter where they finish, run basically the the same number each time. They will make a raw or Zero time for the races those horses run.They don't have to win. In fact it's better that they don't since horses that win usualy run quite a bit faster than previous races. Ok. so now you've calculated your raw time. Adjust it for ground lost and wind. All six horses now can be assigned a raw speed figure number. If all six ran about three lengths faster than their norm you have a plus 3 track. 6 lengths slower a minus 6 track. Once you know you now have a accurate variant you can make a very good number for everyone who ran that day. A good variant is far and away the most important part of making speed figure numbers. Here's an example why. Me and Coach Pants are gonna race 100 yards at the beach for DT bragging rights. We line up and "WE'RE OFF" We fly our 100 yards in 10 seconds flat. ( in our dreams) and finish in a dead heat. But! Upon further review. I ran on the hard packed sand right next to the water. While Pants ran on the loose cuppy sand right next to the boardwalk. Even though we finished right together in the photo and our time was the same Pants should get the bragging rights because he will have run a much better race getting a faster figure. Reverse our lanes and he wins by many. Hope that helps.

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The way they calculate an expected normal time is quite clever. They let a few of the most consistent horses set it. Cool thing is the horse can totally suck as long as it totally sucks in roughly the same fashion each time. You can use a bottom of the barrel maiden claimer or a stakes horse. Doesn't matter as long as they are reliable to run similar races pretty much every time. Let's say there are 80 horse running on a card. Variant makers will find a half dozen who,no matter where they finish, run basically the the same number each time. They will make a raw or Zero time for the races those horses run.They don't have to win. In fact it's better that they don't since horses that win usualy run quite a bit faster than previous races. Ok. so now you've calculated your raw time. Adjust it for ground lost and wind. All six horses now can be assigned a raw speed figure number. If all six ran about three lengths faster than their norm you have a plus 3 track. 6 lengths slower a minus 6 track. Once you know you now have a accurate variant you can make a very good number for everyone who ran that day. A good variant is far and away the most important part of making speed figure numbers. Here's an example why. Me and Coach Pants are gonna race 100 yards at the beach for DT bragging rights. We line up and "WE'RE OFF" We fly our 100 yards in 10 seconds flat. ( in our dreams) and finish in a dead heat. But! Upon further review. I ran on the hard packed sand right next to the water. While Pants ran on the loose cuppy sand right next to the boardwalk. Even though we finished right together in the photo and our time was the same Pants should get the bragging rights because he will have run a much better race getting a faster figure. Reverse our lanes and he wins by many. Hope that helps.

Did you call the race while running?

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

Did you call the race while running?

I wasn't straight or strong.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The way they calculate an expected normal time is quite clever. They let a few of the most consistent horses set it. Cool thing is the horse can totally suck as long as it totally sucks in roughly the same fashion each time. You can use a bottom of the barrel maiden claimer or a stakes horse. Doesn't matter as long as they are reliable to run similar races pretty much every time. Let's say there are 80 horse running on a card. Variant makers will find a half dozen who,no matter where they finish, run basically the the same number each time. They will make a raw or Zero time for the races those horses run.They don't have to win. In fact it's better that they don't since horses that win usualy run quite a bit faster than previous races. Ok. so now you've calculated your raw time. Adjust it for ground lost and wind. All six horses now can be assigned a raw speed figure number. If all six ran about three lengths faster than their norm you have a plus 3 track. 6 lengths slower a minus 6 track. Once you know you now have a accurate variant you can make a very good number for everyone who ran that day. A good variant is far and away the most important part of making speed figure numbers. Here's an example why. Me and Coach Pants are gonna race 100 yards at the beach for DT bragging rights. We line up and "WE'RE OFF" We fly our 100 yards in 10 seconds flat. ( in our dreams) and finish in a dead heat. But! Upon further review. I ran on the hard packed sand right next to the water. While Pants ran on the loose cuppy sand right next to the boardwalk. Even though we finished right together in the photo and our time was the same Pants should get the bragging rights because he will have run a much better race getting a faster figure. Reverse our lanes and he wins by many. Hope that helps.

Dunbar and well all of you guys...

I really appreciate your answers, your insight, your help and reading all of this together really does make sense. I apprexiate that none of you talked down to me!

Vic...

I specifically said that it might make sense if someone explained "what this means and why and here's an example" and so I really do need to thank you for doing just that. I'm not saying you talked down to me and the others didn't but you did what i asked for and made it easy to understand and your examples were really good (and pretty funny).

Thanks.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The way they calculate an expected normal time is quite clever. They let a few of the most consistent horses set it. Cool thing is the horse can totally suck as long as it totally sucks in roughly the same fashion each time. You can use a bottom of the barrel maiden claimer or a stakes horse. Doesn't matter as long as they are reliable to run similar races pretty much every time. Let's say there are 80 horse running on a card. Variant makers will find a half dozen who,no matter where they finish, run basically the the same number each time. They will make a raw or Zero time for the races those horses run.They don't have to win. In fact it's better that they don't since horses that win usualy run quite a bit faster than previous races. Ok. so now you've calculated your raw time. Adjust it for ground lost and wind. All six horses now can be assigned a raw speed figure number. If all six ran about three lengths faster than their norm you have a plus 3 track. 6 lengths slower a minus 6 track. Once you know you now have a accurate variant you can make a very good number for everyone who ran that day. A good variant is far and away the most important part of making speed figure numbers. Here's an example why. Me and Coach Pants are gonna race 100 yards at the beach for DT bragging rights. We line up and "WE'RE OFF" We fly our 100 yards in 10 seconds flat. ( in our dreams) and finish in a dead heat. But! Upon further review. I ran on the hard packed sand right next to the water. While Pants ran on the loose cuppy sand right next to the boardwalk. Even though we finished right together in the photo and our time was the same Pants should get the bragging rights because he will have run a much better race getting a faster figure. Reverse our lanes and he wins by many. Hope that helps.

(emphasis added)

This makes sense for Thoro-graph and similar speed figures which take trip factors into account. But what about Beyer Speed Figures?

The Beyer figs themselves are supposed to be independent of trip factors. I reread the 1st chapter of "Beyer On Speed" to see if trip factors for individual horses were used to create the variant, but I didn't see any mention of it.

Beyer describes two methods he uses to get figs: (1) Compare the winning times for today's races with the historical average winning times for that level race at that track, then average the differences (after adjusting for race length) for all races on that day on that surface, and (2) project the numbers from each horse in the race based on the horse's previous numbers, then average those differences for all races on the same surface.

--Dunbar

[ShadowRoll]

A little off topic, but is there something wrong with my connection or was chuckles sent to the gulag? I no longer see any of his posts. The last words of his I can see in this thread are "may not exist," which, if it's the latter situation, I find somewhat ironic.

[chucklestheclown]

Did you ever hear of google?
Anyways...http://www.turfpedia.com/methods/speed/variants.html

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

Did you ever hear of google?
Anyways...http://www.turfpedia.com/methods/speed/variants.html

Very funny.

This is why I'm asking here...

I can read 20,000 things and still not get it.

Sometimes all it takes is for one person to say this is what this means and why and here's an example and poof! It comes together.

I've read stuff and wouldn't ask here like a pathetic moron if i could understand it without help.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Very funny.

This is why I'm asking here...

I can read 20,000 things and still not get it.

Sometimes all it takes is for one person to say this is what this means and why and here's an example and poof! It comes together.

I've read stuff and wouldn't ask here like a pathetic moron if i could understand it without help.

I think it's been explained pretty well by BTW and VJ but if numbers might help jog your brain here's a quick example.

Podunk Downs, 10/5/10, fast track to start the card
Race 1: Kim's Consistent Colt runs 6F in 1:11 3/5 for an 83, whereas we expected an 85. (2 slower than "par")
Race 2: Sam's Slowpoke runs 1 mile in 1:40 1/5 for a 60, whereas we expected a 58. (2 faster than "par")
Race 3: Ronnie's Rabbit Racer runs 6F in 1:12 3/5 for a 70, whereas we expected a 71 (1 slower than "par")

A huge rainstorm hits the track. 1/2" of rain falls between the 3rd and 4th races and the track goes from fast to a sloppy mess.

Race 4: Molly's Mudlark runs 1 mile in 1:42 for a 42, when we expected a 60. (18 slower than "par")
Race 5: Gary's Gator runs 6F in 1:13 for a 64, when we expected an 80. (16 slower than "par")
Race 6: Jan's Jumper runs 6F in 1:14 for a 51, when we expected a 66. (15 slower than "par")

Now, if we assigned the average variant of the day (8) to all the horses, we are going to make the first 3 races look better than they really were and the last 3 worse than they really were. If we split the variant before and after the rainstorm we end up with a 0 before and a 16 after, it puts the numbers much more in line with what we expect and the reality of how the horses actually ran.