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#1
01-07-2011, 07:46 AM
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1/7: Gulfstream (5th-9th); Fair Grounds (7th-10th)
For all the glassy-eyed carrying on over Gulfstream's 'horseplayer friendly' innovations, how is it that no one seems concerned with bettors being patently screwed by the entry snafu in Thursday's 5th? At the start of the multi-race carryover sequence, it was discovered only in the paddock that the Michael Dubb ownership entrymate (#1a) Sr. Henry had no intention of running. Whether Rick Dutrow hadn't notified the racing office or the racing office hadn't notified the public, it was an egregious error that defrauded anyone who bet the entry, in which Sr. Henry was the more potent partner. Bill Mott's Carson Hall (#1) went off as the 2-1 favorite, and never lifted a hoof finishing 9th of 10.
With him went money bet on the supposed entry in straight and exotic pools, the P6, P5, three P3's and two DD's. This is the same pattern of disregard that Gulfstream has exhibited in recent years when taking races off the turf after P4 sequences have started. Bettors in New York are spoiled when it comes to this kind of situation, because racing law there requires a remaining portion of an entry to run for purse money only should their other half not make the gate, and players get protected. Even though there isn't a requirement by law in Florida for a pre-race entrymate scratch, the stewards certainly have the discretion to declare the remaining runner a 'purse only' runner, and the failure to do so was far more telling about Gulfstream's concern for the horseplayer than a 15% takeout wager. In the meantime, it was a challenging day with some solid hits to start and finish the day, despite missing the desired marks on the P5 and P4's. Best Value focus Exhanging Kisses (8-1) dead-heated with Grand Cash in that 5th race, and though I'd have prefered Danny Miller's Exchange Rate gelding win outright, the triples came back at nearly $200 for $1. Had the range on two of the other nice-priced winners in the skien, but $17 Honeymoon Girl in the 7th and $16 Tagg first Dagney Darling in the 9th were elusive. The first P5 carryover sequence paid a solid $22k, but the sequence was awfully difficult to receive that reward for a successful negotiation, considering all 5 winners paid between $12.60-$17.40. The dead heat to start the play diminished the return by 50% as the parlay with either 5th race winner as a solo was about $42k. At Santa Anita, had the right single in Baffert's Serene Sophia in the second leg of the P4, but Barry Abrams got a great ride by Corey Nakatani on Phi Beta Heat who upset the sequence starter at 20-1. The day ended on an up note though as the first leg knockout led to a P3 play that scored at $111 with $11.80 Sporting Art and crazy overlay Really Elegant ($20.40) following Serene Sophia. All in all, afun day of racing for a Thursday, and I hope you did well. Additional action sequences available today at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds, and a good feature ($75k Kalookan Queen) at Santa Anita! GULFSTREAM POST-SCRATCHES 5th: MDN CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Hybrid 4-1 2nd Best Value: #9 Ink 6-1 WON ($6.40) Next Best: #12 Giarixa 6-1 3rd Super Add: #4 Boat 12-1 4th $1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $12.70 $1 Trifecta (9-5-12) Paid $47.40 $1 Superfecta (9-5-12-4) Paid $201.70 6th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Zermatt 4-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Flask 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #8 In Perpetuity 3-1 WON ($8.40) Super Add: #6 Sweet N Sour Nina 10-1 2nd 7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #10 Mending Hearts 5-1 WON ($9.20) Next Best: #1 (POE) Startling Beauty 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #4 R Gypsy Gold 4-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Ipswich Bay 10-1 8th $1 Exacta (10-4) Paid $51.30 $1 Pick 3 (9/8/10) Paid $99.70 8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m (DD, Super) One of 'those' early Gulfstream stand ALW's for sophs that regularly produce runners that feed into Florida Derby sequence.. Most Likely: #1 Black N Beauty 5-2 WON ($7.00) Best Value: #9 Shadow Warrior 5-1 3rd Next Best: #10 El Grayling 4-1 4th Super Add: #4 Printing Press 6-1 2nd $2 Exacta (1-4) Paid $17.40 $2 Trifecta (1-4-9) Paid $50.20 $1 Superfecta (1-4-9-10) Paid $141.00 $1 Double (10/1) Paid $19.20 $1 Pick 3 (8/10/1) Paid $140.10 9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super) Best Value: #1 Cozy Cabin 6-1 WON ($10.40) Next Best: #4 Rena 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Dandy's Essence 12-1 4th Super Add: #6 Roar of the Kitty 20-1 9th $1 Double (1/1) Paid $24.20 $1 Pick 3 (10/1/1) Paid $124.90 <$100 P5 Play: 5: 4-5-9-12 6: 1-5 7: 1-4-10 8: 1-9 9: 1-3-4 4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 5 (6,7,9,15,16/8/10/1/1) Paid $14.00 (4OF5) X 2 = $28.00 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-5-8 7: 1-3-4-10 8: 1-4-9-10 9: 1-3-4 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $.50 Pick 4 (8/10/1/1) Paid $354.30 FAIR GROUNDS POST-SCRATCHES 7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #6 Patience Drive 3-1 WON ($9.40) Next Best: #7 Caminadora 4-1 7th Exotics Use: #1 Cosmic Queen 6-1 5th 8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, Super) Most Likely: #5 Exhilarating 4-1 7th Best Value: #3 Merom 5-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Wildcat Aly 7-2 WON ($6.60) Super Add: #4 Sorority Rush 6-1 6th 9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Hey Carmen 5-2 WON ($3.00) Next Best: #9 Oil Empress 6-1 2nd 10th: CLM/N2Y, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #11 Phantom Strike 7-2 WON ($6.40) Best Value: #12 Curly 10-1 - Next Best: #7 Badger Barry 3-1 - Exotics Use: #2 Macabe's Gold 8-1 3rd Hi-5 Play: #10 Win Grammy Boy 5-1 2nd <$50 P4 Play: 7: 1-6-7 8: 3-4-5-7 9: 7-9 10: 2-7-11-12 3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 $.50 Pick 4 (6/7/7/11) Paid $62.75 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 01-07-2011 at 06:28 PM. 
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#3
01-07-2011, 11:08 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 01-07-2011 at 11:47 AM.
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#4
01-07-2011, 03:57 PM
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Why in the world was the Robsham-Pletcher 15-1? I had to bet her at that price. That was bizarre.
Exacta $102... 
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
01-07-2011, 10:14 PM
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Nice Job today Steve, you were all over it.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#7
01-08-2011, 06:16 AM
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Matt/asia,
Thanks very much.. Things broke nicely yesterday! Would have been great to nab that extra $900 in the P5. Will try to keep it going this afternoon. It's a nice confidence builder to feel like you got a handle on a meet early on.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 01-08-2011 at 07:40 AM.
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