Revisiting the Fountain of Youth day figures

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I read this quote in a Haskin column earlier in the week regarding Arch Traveler's alw win...

The track for that race, run as the third, was noticeably slower than later races, and only got faster as they watered it during the course of the afternoon.

In his weekly write-up - Mike Welch made no mention of any unusual maintenance and made no opinion of the track changing speeds like he sometimes will.

So, you have two big questions in play on this day - 1.) was the track really noticeably faster for the Hutcheson and FOY due to maintenance work? 2.) Are the given figures way too low for the routes? I'm just going to focus on question #1.

The first race of the day was a maiden claiming race for 3-year-olds at 7 furlongs - it looked par at best for the class level on paper - and it went in 1:23.95.

The winner of the race was a 2nd time starter who ran a 39 Beyer in it's debut after having a good bit of early trouble.

The 2nd place finisher was a 7th time starter who had been soundly beaten three prior times at the maiden claiming level. Ran a 56 last out.

A Phil Serpe NY bred longshot in for a 45K tag and off a 46 Beyer debut was 3rd beaten 5.25 lengths in that race.


The Grade 2 Hucheson stakes was also run at 7fs - but was much later on in the card - meaning some think it was run over a faster racetrack. The Hucheson winner Flashpoint went 1.92 seconds faster than the Maiden Claimer race.

If the track was consistant in speed - Flashpoint ran 23 points faster than the maiden claiming winner - and Travelin Man ran 7 points faster than the maiden claiming winner. Several stakes winning beaten horses in the Hucheson ran MUCH slower than the maiden claiming race.

Now - if the track really became much faster later in the day - Flashpoint's 23 point edge over the maiden claiming race has to be shaved way down. I guess that was some monster maiden claiming race - and the Serpe NY Bred layoff horse - who wasn't bet - and was in the for the discounted claiming tag - should be shipped to New York ASAP where he will rip right through his NY Bred MSW and ALW conditions.

Quite obviously - it's my opinion that there is no evidence at all that the track was becoming faster as the day progressed.

Even if you disregard the first race - there is still no such evidence from race #3 onward.

[randallscott35]

So you would put Soldat closer to 108...

And Flashpoint closer to 110?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

So you would put Soldat closer to 108...

And Flashpoint closer to 110?

Those are seperate matters that relate a lot more to question #2 - which I didn't address in this topic. Unless you're asking if I think the reverse happened - and the track actually got slower as the day went along? If that's what you're asking - I would say probably not likely. The track speed looked pretty darn consistent to me that day.

Whoever did the Beyers that day - they didn't cut any races loose and went with one variant. I simply strongly disagree with how slow they have the two route races... and I strongly disagree that the track was getting faster through the day (which is not contended by the Beyer figures)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

2.) Are the given figures way too low for the routes? I'm just going to focus on question #1.

I'll revist this question again - even though I already got into it last weekend.

Here are the Beyers horses recieved in the days two two-turn routes.

Race #3:

Arch Traveler - 76 (ran a 90 last out - the sheet figures had him even faster than that)

Nacho Business - 75 (ran a 80 last out - 2nd place to him that day returned to win at 13/1 odds next out with a 7 point improvment)

Washington Rules - 71 (ran a 88 in his last start at GP - which was two starts back)

Private Prize - 71 (ran a 76 in his only prior dirt start - which came at age 2. He's developed since)

Cool Blue Red Hot - 68 (ran a 96 in his debut and an 85 last time out)

Pornci Prince - 62 (ran four races in the 67-to-78 range at age 2 - was making 2nd start off of layoff and was pressing easy pace)


Fountain of Youth:

Soldat - 96 (ran a 103 last time out - was reportedly training lights out - and was bet hard seemingly everywhere)

Gourmet Dinner - 93 (ran a 94 last time out - I guess the rider change from Madrid to Dominguez and the flawless trip did no good)

To Honor And Serve - 85 (102, 97, and 95 in his last three races - and while the 102 came on an unpressured lead - it was a rock solid number and the early pace was by no means slow that day. His trip could have been a whole lot more perfect in the Remsen had he been allowed to set less than quick fractions)

Bowman's Causeway - 81 (ran an 85 last out. I guess the jockey switch from R. Curatolo to Julian Leperoux didn't help)

Sheckleford - 58 - (ran a 89 and 85 in only two prior dirt races)

Racing Aptitude - 44 - (A stakes winner on turf - he merely reverted to his bad dirt form)

Casper's Touch - 39 - (Ran a 85 on dirt last out)

El Grayling - Used in paced and Eased late - (last 3 numbers in the 75 to 85 range - was oddly ridden. Acted almost as Gourmet Dinner's rabbit)


When I finally did my pace numbers for these two races - I had a feeling CJ would chime in that I was too high with a 106-to-109 and 86-to-89projection ... but he has to remember that Beyer's aren't made using his methods.

Figure makers need to be consistent.

I was a catcher growing up - not all umpires had the same strike zone. Some of them had a strike zone that went from the shoelaces up to the knees. Some of them had a strike zone that went from the belt up to the letters. Some had a very wide one - some had a very tight one.

As a catcher - regardless of what kind of strike zone they had - you just want it to be consistent.

There was nothing consistent with the route Beyers that day - based on how they've made Beyer figures on similar types of days at Gulfstream.

You tend to get huge beaten length margins at Gulfstream. Quality Road and Big Drama wouldn't have got close to the 120 range with the same standards applied as the ones used on this day. They had VERY soundly beaten horses running back to their races.

In this instance ... you have two fields of 3-year-old males .. all pretty much going backwards together at the time of year when 3yo males often develop and improve faster than any other type of horse by age and sex.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'll revist this question again - even though I already got into it last weekend.

Here are the Beyers horses recieved in the days two two-turn routes.

Race #3:

Arch Traveler - 76 (ran a 90 last out - the sheet figures had him even faster than that)

Nacho Business - 75 (ran a 80 last out - 2nd place to him that day returned to win at 13/1 odds next out with a 7 point improvment)

Washington Rules - 71 (ran a 88 in his last start at GP - which was two starts back)

Private Prize - 71 (ran a 76 in his only prior dirt start - which came at age 2. He's developed since)

Cool Blue Red Hot - 68 (ran a 96 in his debut and an 85 last time out)

Pornci Prince - 62 (ran four races in the 67-to-78 range at age 2 - was making 2nd start off of layoff and was pressing easy pace)


Fountain of Youth:

Soldat - 96 (ran a 103 last time out - was reportedly training lights out - and was bet hard seemingly everywhere)

Gourmet Dinner - 93 (ran a 94 last time out - I guess the rider change from Madrid to Dominguez and the flawless trip did no good)

To Honor And Serve - 85 (102, 97, and 95 in his last three races - and while the 102 came on an unpressured lead - it was a rock solid number and the early pace was by no means slow that day. His trip could have been a whole lot more perfect in the Remsen had he been allowed to set less than quick fractions)

Bowman's Causeway - 81 (ran an 85 last out. I guess the jockey switch from R. Curatolo to Julian Leperoux didn't help)

Sheckleford - 58 - (ran a 89 and 85 in only two prior dirt races)

Racing Aptitude - 44 - (A stakes winner on turf - he merely reverted to his bad dirt form)

Casper's Touch - 39 - (Ran a 85 on dirt last out)

El Grayling - Used in paced and Eased late - (last 3 numbers in the 75 to 85 range - was oddly ridden. Acted almost as Gourmet Dinner's rabbit)


When I finally did my pace numbers for these two races - I had a feeling CJ would chime in that I was too high with a 106-to-109 and 86-to-89projection ... but he has to remember that Beyer's aren't made using his methods.

Figure makers need to be consistent.

I was a catcher growing up - not all umpires had the same strike zone. Some of them had a strike zone that went from the shoelaces up to the knees. Some of them had a strike zone that went from the belt up to the letters. Some had a very wide one - some had a very tight one.

As a catcher - regardless of what kind of strike zone they had - you just want it to be consistent.

There was nothing consistent with the route Beyers that day - based on how they've made Beyer figures on similar types of days at Gulfstream.

You tend to get huge beaten length margins at Gulfstream. Quality Road and Big Drama wouldn't have got close to the 120 range with the same standards applied as the ones used on this day. They had VERY soundly beaten horses running back to their races.

In this instance ... you have two fields of 3-year-old males .. all pretty much going backwards together at the time of year when 3yo males often develop and improve faster than any other type of horse by age and sex.

I always had you figured as more of a catcher than a pitcher.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

My oldest brother was the best pitcher in the entire city. His fastball only reached the low to mid 70's and he was a relative midget (5'10 170lbs) - but he could throw five different pitches and had great control with most of them.

If he had an arm - he'd have been a sure-fire MLB pitcher.

He won every game but one his junior year - and his team lost almost every single game that he didn't start.

He was 7 or 8 years older than me though. His catcher was a fat kid with no arm who couldn't catch his knuckleball. They had like one and a half other good players - and no one else who could pitch or wanted to catch. He got good shortstop and 2nd base play anyway.