Current Derby Odds from Betfair (Top 8 Choices)

[justindew]

Dialed In 3.2/1
Uncle Mo 5/1
Dance City 9/1
Nehro 11.5/1
Archarcharch 13.5/1
JP's Gusto 14/1
Toby's Corner 14/1
Mucho Macho Man 14.5/1

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Dialed In 3.2/1
Uncle Mo 5/1
Dance City 9/1
Nehro 11.5/1
Archarcharch 13.5/1
JP's Gusto 14/1
Toby's Corner 14/1
Mucho Macho Man 14.5/1

9/1 third choice on a horse who needs another $100K in earnings to even sniff the starting gate?

[jms62]

When are people going to throw in the towel on JP's Gusto

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

9/1 third choice on a horse who needs another $100K in earnings to even sniff the starting gate?

I'm not a betfair expert but I think the first post is misleading, there is $21 offered (out of 104k) and he is 7.5/1

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

I'm not a betfair expert but I think the first post is misleading, there is $21 offered (out of 104k) and he is 7.5/1

Ok, I know next to nothing about betfair, but basically then it's not like they're pounding this horse down to 7/1 for a race that 1.) He won't get into 2.) He'd be 40/1 in that day?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Dialed In 3.2/1
Uncle Mo 5/1
Dance City 9/1
Nehro 11.5/1
Archarcharch 13.5/1
JP's Gusto 14/1
Toby's Corner 14/1
Mucho Macho Man 14.5/1

This is very incorrect. The real estimated odds for these 8 based on Betfair:

Dialed In 4.6/1
Uncle Mo 7.9/1
Toby's Corner 15/1
Nehro 16/1
Archarcharch 18/1
Mucho Macho Man 22/1
Dance City 45/1
JP's Gusto (no market)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is very incorrect. The real estimated odds for these 8 based on Betfair:

Dialed In 4.6/1
Uncle Mo 7.9/1
Toby's Corner 15/1
Nehro 16/1
Archarcharch 18/1
Mucho Macho Man 22/1
Dance City 45/1
JP's Gusto (no market)

I thought you are suppose to look at the "back" part, not the Lay?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There is absolutely no liquidity in that market at Betfair right now - and there is nothing going down on the lay side of serious note other than $32 against Toby's Corner at 17.5-to-1 odds.

In terms of what you can get right now if you're looking to back a horse ...

Dialed In: 3.2-to-1 for $817
Uncle Mo: 5.2-to-1 for $237
and so on.

It's stupid to fool around in a market like that - in order to get real value there typically has to be liquidity - which causes everything to tighten.

[justindew]

Yeah, it's definitely not a stable wagering pool at the moment. The odds have changed on a number of the choices since I posted this a few hours ago. Dance City is up to 13-1 now.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'll make him 14/1

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I thought you are suppose to look at the "back" part, not the Lay?

No...

You should look at the "mid" price. If there's relatively equal money on both sides of the market, like in the case of Nehro, the trading price will end up very close to the middle of the tightest bid/offer (in this case 12.5/19, so 16.) In the situation where there's a lot of money on the offer ("back") side, like in the case of Dialed In ($817 at 4.2 to back versus only $14 at 5.8 to lay and $14 at 6.0 to lay) it's a certainty that the price will trend higher- here, very very likely to be at 5.8+; the reverse is true if there's a lot of money on the bid ("lay") side.

In this specific market, the "back" side is simply where the market makers are seeding the market. It is far lower than what really will trade.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

No...

You should look at the "mid" price. If there's relatively equal money on both sides of the market, like in the case of Nehro, the trading price will end up very close to the middle of the tightest bid/offer (in this case 12.5/19, so 16.) In the situation where there's a lot of money on the offer ("back") side, like in the case of Dialed In ($817 at 4.2 to back versus only $14 at 5.8 to lay and $14 at 6.0 to lay) it's a certainty that the price will trend higher- here, very very likely to be at 5.8+; the reverse is true if there's a lot of money on the bid ("lay") side.

In this specific market, the "back" side is simply where the market makers are seeding the market. It is far lower than what really will trade.

Exactly. Which is why 13/1 on Dance City isn't realistic. Regardless, if you want a bet ON Dance City to be accepted now, you will only get 13/1.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Exactly. Which is why 13/1 on Dance City isn't realistic. Regardless, if you want a bet ON Dance City to be accepted now, you will only get 13/1.

Correct, which is why I didn't agree with your initial list. It paints an incorrect picture- one with a roughly 40-50% takeout. The Betfair #'s can be VERY helpful though and definitely worth looking at.