Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > Joe Silverio Simulcast Center
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-12-2011, 07:41 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,310
Default 5/12: Churchill (P6/Hi-5 C/O's); Hollywood (P5/P6 C/O's)

Another Derby, another carryover bonanza left in its' wake. $515k P6 and $220k Hi-5 pots lay in wait Thursday on an approachable series of races at the Downs. Meanwhile, Hollywood has its' own pair of bonus pools with remainders of $107k in the P5 and $91k in the sextet. Thoughts below, with Marty McGee visiting ATR at 9:30a to preview the Kentucky jackpots.

Good day of racing Wednesday at Belmont with a great deal of success on the first half of the card as the $240+ early P4 and a $70 overlay P3 on races 2-4 helped build a nice cushion. Tough to find $60 winner of the 6th derailed the late P4. Hope you did well!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$515k P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #8 Donnaguska 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Dreymore 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gaelic Lass 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #11 Lookslikelove 12-1 6th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Muhaaseb 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Gypsy Wind 3-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Awesome Review 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #8 Devine Revelation 5-1 8th


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Patine 7-2 8th
Best Value: #3 Little Bit Tiny 12-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Anabaa's Fortune 9-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #5 She Can Fly 4-1 5th


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cherry Included 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Rollin Jai Jai 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Starkey 6-1 9th
Super Add: #9 China Melissa 8-1 7th


9th: CLM, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Parioli's Trick 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Free Brave 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Lookn Mighty Fast 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Tangled Sheets 4-1 WON ($13.20)


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

$220k Hi-5 Carryover..

Most Likely: #7 Tactical Man 4-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Miami Rockstar 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cowboy Sam 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Waylon's Ghost 20-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Blue Solitude 6-1 3rd


<$100 Super Hi-5 Play:

A: 7
B: 4-6
C: 3-4-6
D: 3-4-6-7-9
E: All

1x2x2x3x7 = $84


<$100 P6 Play:

5: 7-8-12
6: 4-9
7: 3-4
8: 3
9: 3-5
10: 4-7

3x2x2x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-7-11
8: 3-6
9: 1-3-5
10: 3-4-6-7-9

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

$107k .50 P5 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Roulette It Roll 5-2 -
Best Value: #3 Desperate Measures 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 Meter Me Gone 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Diamond Journey 12-1 4th


2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 All the Love 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #3 Moonstruck Maya 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Going for a Spin 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #5 Miss Mittagong 6-1 5th


3rd: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$91k $2 P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Gogi 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Vicki Victoria 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Dolphin Bay 7-2
Super Add: #9 Molly's All Heart 3-1


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Party Ruler 4-1 -
Next Best: #8 Free From My Ex 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 You Little Devil 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Nisus 5-2 WON ($12.20)


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Vikkilee 2-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Marrymeonemoretime 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Entabeni 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Sleep Tight 7-2 WON ($9.40)


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-5
2: 3-4
3: 2-4-5
4: 6-8
5: 2-3-8-9

3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Afleet Deal 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gallant Gent 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Star Nicholas 6-1 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Kate's Event 9-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Cigar Man 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Burj Dubai 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Uh Oh Bango 5-2 WON ($8.00)


8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gutshot Straight 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Gifted Student 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Cabo San Lucas 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Smokin Bomb 15-1 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 4-5
4: 6
5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 3

2x1x4x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 2-3

4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


Good luck!
Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-12-2011 at 07:57 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-12-2011, 12:13 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,310
Default

CD SCR/CHG'S
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-12-2011, 12:28 PM
justindew's Avatar
justindew justindew is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,640
Default

CD Pick 6

7,8
2,4,9
4,10,11,12
3,8
1,5
6,11

$384
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-12-2011, 02:35 PM
MaTH716's Avatar
MaTH716 MaTH716 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Jersey
Posts: 11,438
Default

For play-along purposes only (not home to play for real)
Hollywood pick 5
1,5
3,6
2,5,9
2,6,7,8
3,8,9
$72 bucks

Good Luck
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-12-2011, 04:49 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,310
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew View Post
CD Pick 6

7,8
2,4,9
4,10,11,12
3,8
1,5
6,11

$384
Nicely structured play JD. 2x2 for something or everything! G/L rest of way..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-12-2011, 05:19 PM
pointman's Avatar
pointman pointman is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 15,693
Default

I'm very surprised to see Free From My Ex open as the 3/5 favorite in the Hollywood 4th. I would love to see Party Ruler stay in the 8-1 range, but doubt that will happen.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-12-2011, 05:38 PM
justindew's Avatar
justindew justindew is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,640
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Nicely structured play JD. 2x2 for something or everything! G/L rest of way..
Eff.

Oh well.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-12-2011, 05:56 PM
Rootdog1's Avatar
Rootdog1 Rootdog1 is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: LexVegas
Posts: 2,481
Default

can anyone post the pk5 willpays to the
1
2
3
8
9

For some reason not coming up on drf
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-12-2011, 03:06 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,310
Default

Total CD P6 Pool; $2,105,465

$1.6 million -- 3x original pool-- bet in today
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-12-2011, 03:44 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,310
Default

HOL SCR/CHG'S
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 05-12-2011, 04:35 PM
pointman's Avatar
pointman pointman is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 15,693
Default

Hollywood pk6 stab:

$96
3- 5,9
4- 6
5- 8,9
6- 1,6,9,10
7- 2,3,4
8- 3

Good Luck!
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-12-2011, 04:48 PM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

That was a masterpiece by Cornelio in the BEL 8th.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:47 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.