6/25: Belmont Park (5th-10th); Prairie Meadows (7th-10th)

[Kasept]

Fun Friday night as Churchill got back to racing and Prairie Meadows kicked off their annual 2 day stakes festival. At the Downs, the P6 carry pushed into Saturday thanks to the impossible to find Sahm Like It Hot in the cheap 7th. As the longest shot on the board ($27.70), the Brian Williamson Illinois-bred emerged late under bug boy Roman to bust up all kinds of multi-race plays. Elsewhere on the card, Wine Police and Buckleup Buttercup both made quality seasonal debuts. Hit the late CD P4 ($62.15) losing $10 in the process, but getting some overlays into trifecta in the 6th ($31.40) and 9th ($64.20) helped offset the P6 investment. May or may not chase the $46,700 P6 pot available in Louisville today.

At Prairie Meadows, the most notable effort came from marvelous 9yo Ducky Drake as he upset Ventana (3-4) and Atta Boy Roy (3-2) in the Sprint Handicap at a crazy 13.50-1. As discussed this week, I've been trying a longshot play structure utilizing overlays as keys in the place and show position, and the approach helped result in a quality saver on the winner. I placed Ducky Drake both second and third in tris with the two favorites, and at more than double his morning line, bet him to win as well. The $29.00 tote was a nice reward considering the frustration of leaving Chris Hartman's 20x winner off the P4 play. The 'longshot reverse key' concept was offered up on ATR as an approach on Breeders' Cup cards by BC tote honcho Ken Kirchner, who is a serious hanicapper/horseplayer. I will have him back on the show to elaborate further, but searching for a new wrinkle in my own play, I've had a handful of quality hits with this concept over the last 6-8 weeks.

Hope everyone did OK and are ready for another big raceday!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Put Me First 3-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Dreamingof Lillian 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Kaffiend 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lila Louann 5-2 3rd


6th: New York (G2), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Nothing clever to say here. Best you can do here to make money is try to get La Cloche or Trix in the City into the tri/super..

Most Likely: #7 Hibaayeb 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Zagora 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Giants Play 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #4 La Cloche 10-1 6th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Bullet Baby 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Letshootpool 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Mean Reversion 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Valuable Lady 5-1 7th


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As discussed Friday on ATR with Nick Tammaro, Midnight Billy is a horse that is priced right and finally may have the right post and pace to score out. Unfortunately, he loses the scheduled services of Curatolo who will be sidelined 2 months with a clavicle fracture suffered Wednesday..

Best Value: #1 Midnight Billy 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Sky Blue Pink 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Mr. Enrico 20-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Power Dreams 2-1 5th


9th: 55th Mother Goose (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Whatever this historic and important soph filly event lost with the demuring of Plum Pretty and Royal Delta, has been made up in intrigue with a fascinating cast of evolving or emerging missies. Hard to fault KMc's work this meet, and at anything close to 6-1, Alseera makes sense sitting either an outside stalking trip or as the one to catch if Garcia takes command..

Best Value: #7 Alseera 6-1 DNF
Next Best: #4 Joyful Victory 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Salty Strike 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Buster's Ready 7-2 WON ($9.40)


10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

Very curious race, and I'm going to reach for a few quirky players to go with the deserving favorite who draws outside..

Best Value: #3 Dixie Rocks 12-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Bazinga 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Holy Spice 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Notell 10-1 4th


<$100 P6 Play:

5: 6
6: 1-6-7
7: 7-8
8: 1-3
9: 4-7
10: 3-11

1x3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 7-8
8: 1-3
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 2-3-6-9-10-11

2x2x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48



PRAIRIE MEADOWS


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: Iowa Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3)

Daisy Devine is OK as the favorite here, but she's hardly awe-inspiring..

Most Likely: #5 Daisy Devine 6-5 5th
Best Value: #4 All About Allie 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Hearts On Fire 5-1 2nd


8th: Iowa Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Astrology 9-5 6th
Next Best: #8 Caleb's Posse 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Sherriff Cogburn 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Prayer for Relief 7-2 WON ($13.60)


9th: Cornhusker H. (G3), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Wonderfully interesting version of this Midwest standard. Hard to draw a line through very many for at least a share..

Best Value: #6 Victory Pete 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Stachys 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Awesome Gem 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Headache 8-1 WON ($11.00)


10th: MDN CLM, 3-5yo, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 South Tulsa County 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Kollege 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Cabo Borracho 4-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Denali Surprise 15-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4-5
8: 5
9: 1-4-6-10
10: 1-4-8

5x1x4x3 = $60 ($30 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Curatolo injury replacement jocks

1st: 6 Can't Refuse J. Espinoza 121 Lbs
2nd: 2 Seek to Destroy I. Ortiz *112 Lbs
3rd: 6 Sneaky Girl J. Lezcano 121 Lbs
4th: 4 Bill Senior A. Lezcano 121 Lbs
5th: 6 Put Me First E. Castro 121 Lbs
7th: 6 Max's Hotdog M. Studart 121 Lbs
8th: 1 Midnight Billy I. Ortiz *116.5 Lbs
10th: 2 Aptphilly J. Velazquez 119 Lbs

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

BELMONT CARRYOVER SUNDAY: $68K (or so)

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As discussed this week, I've been trying a longshot play structure utilizing overlays as keys in the place and show position, and the approach helped result in a quality saver on the winner. I placed Ducky Drake both second and third in tris with the two favorites, and at more than double his morning line, bet him to win as well. The $29.00 tote was a nice reward considering the frustration of leaving Chris Hartman's 20x winner off the P4 play. The 'longshot reverse key' concept was offered up on ATR as an approach on Breeders' Cup cards by BC tote honcho Ken Kirchner, who is a serious hanicapper/horseplayer. I will have him back on the show to elaborate further, but searching for a new wrinkle in my own play, I've had a handful of quality hits with this concept over the last 6-8 weeks.

Steve--I respect both you and Ken and would love to understand this betting approach better. It seems to me that in the example above, keying on your live longshot only underneath cost you a much bigger score. I do get that often these value types will not win. But, if you like a horse at a big price, why not go for it by using him on top in exotics as well?

Paul

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Steve--I respect both you and Ken and would love to understand this betting approach better. It seems to me that in the example above, keying on your live longshot only underneath cost you a much bigger score. I do get that often these value types will not win. But, if you like a horse at a big price, why not go for it by using him on top in exotics as well?

Paul

Because I didn't think he was likely to win. To me he was worth a saver win bet at the price should he win, but it was still far more likely to me that he run 2nd or 3rd with the favorites.

And as it happens, I wouldn't have had the place horse in any case had I tried to key him on top.