Sunday Playalong

[Port Conway Lane]

I'd like some opinions on the first race at Hollywood today.
Please save the sarcastic comments, I realize there are much better wagering opportunities.
I'm looking at extracting some value out of #3 Lyrical.
Without going in depth on my selections so I can get unbiased opinions I see 2,5/3/1,6,4 with the bottom three in a virtual tie.

[Port Conway Lane]

Hollywood Park 1 Superfecta 2,5/2,5/1,2,3,4,5,6/3 0.10 0.60
Hollywood Park 1 Trifecta 2,5/2,5/3 1.00 2.00
Hollywood Park 1 Win 3 2.00 2.00
Hollywood Park 1 Exacta 2,5/3 1.00 2.00
Hollywood Park 1 Superfecta 2,5/1,2,4,5,6/3/1,2,4,5,6 0.10 2.40
Hollywood Park 1 Superfecta 2,5/1,2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6/3 0.10 2.40

The best value I'll get for $11.40 investment is if the #3 can run 3rd or 4th and the 2 or 5 run 5th or 6th. I can't see anything but the 2 or 5 winning and if the #3 can avoid 5th or 6th I'll at least get my money back.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Hollywood Park 1 Superfecta 2,5/2,5/1,2,3,4,5,6/3 0.10 0.60
Hollywood Park 1 Trifecta 2,5/2,5/3 1.00 2.00
Hollywood Park 1 Win 3 2.00 2.00
Hollywood Park 1 Exacta 2,5/3 1.00 2.00
Hollywood Park 1 Superfecta 2,5/1,2,4,5,6/3/1,2,4,5,6 0.10 2.40
Hollywood Park 1 Superfecta 2,5/1,2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6/3 0.10 2.40

The best value I'll get for $11.40 investment is if the #3 can run 3rd or 4th and the 2 or 5 run 5th or 6th. I can't see anything but the 2 or 5 winning and if the #3 can avoid 5th or 6th I'll at least get my money back.

I'm not sure why you are keying on this horse, but in my opinion any type of key with the 2 & especially 5 (who seems like the standout) on top is not going to reap any type of huge payouts in a 6 horse field.

I just don't understand the connection and strategy around the horse, if you like him (have a tip) then either bet him to win or key him in a cheap pick 3 (something like 3/4/all for 6 buck) But I wouldn't worry about cheap supers with the idea of trying to get my 12 bucks back.

[dagolfer33]

I'll agree with Matt on this one, the value here will probably lie in a WP bet, or wrapping into pk3/4/5. With these short fields, there isnt much value playing tri/super bets.

[dagolfer33]

MP 1 tri 1,7/1,3,7/1,3,5,7 $8

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I'm not sure why you are keying on this horse, but in my opinion any type of key with the 2 & especially 5 (who seems like the standout) on top is not going to reap any type of huge payouts in a 6 horse field.

I just don't understand the connection and strategy around the horse, if you like him (have a tip) then either bet him to win or key him in a cheap pick 3 (something like 3/4/all for 6 buck) But I wouldn't worry about cheap supers with the idea of trying to get my 12 bucks back.

Fair enough. The race is bad and I'm keying around a horse with poor gate abilities and questionable trainer. In her first race this year she ran 3/4 of a length behind the heavy favorite in today's race in a turf sprint. The favorite had trouble and Lyrical passed tired horses to get close to her. She dwelt in her next start and ran around the hedge in her last,basically trailing the field.She is stretching out now in her first synthetic start against the worst horses she has faced and takes off the blinkers. i think the distance is going to be to her advantage if she doesn't stand in the gate.

I know what you mean about the limited value in the super and counting on either Flores runnning out is only hope. As it stands now the #2 is the best value going. I'll take your advice and play a 3/4/1,5 p-3.

[Alan07]

Jock on #7 stands up and eases horse costing 2nd and/or 3rd place monies on 2nd at MTH.

[Player_Player]

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Belmont 3rd Race ..


Win & Place .. #2 at 5-2

Win & Place .. #6 at 7-1