Polytrack and Handicapping

[SniperSB23]

Which camp do you stand in?

Camp A) Recognize it as the future of the game and are capping it as often as possible to try and figure out all the associated betting angles.

Camp B) Despise it and absolutely refuse to cap it until there are no major dirt tracks left to play.


I find myself stuck in Camp B. I know I should be taking advantage of the lack of knowledge out there about the surface and using it to my advantage but I just can't find the motivation to get started. Maybe as bigger races start to be run on polytrack I'll get that motivation I need.

[Danzig]

just buy another notebook...take lots of notes. treat it like you treated 'capping when you first started. it's a third surface. some will like, some won't.

and don't bet poly winners at oaklawn, none, not one, won this year in ark after succeeding on polycrap. of course eventually the law of averages would dictate that will change. good luck!!

[Mike_79]

Can I pick C and be in between?

I only play two circuits with them being New York and California. In the winter I mix in Gulfstream as well. I haven't had the need to pay attention to the particulars involved with Polytrack, Cushion track, etc. as of yet. That will all change with the upcoming Hollywood fall meet.

From a handicapping perspective, I'm actually looking forward to it. Pay attention, see what's going on with it, and most importantly no bets until I have some familiarity with how it is out in Cali. If I find an edge, I plan on exploiting it, even if it's a short term one. If I can't find one, then I'll just stick to the turf races out there. I may find it unbettable or I may not. Just going to keep an open mind about it and see how it plays out in Cali.

One thing that may generate some monster plays with the whole Polytrack/Cushion track situation is when horses come off it and run back on the dirt. Sort of in a sense like a turf to dirt type angle. I'll use last year's Gulfstream meet as an example.

Last year two near identical situations presented themselves in mid level maiden claiming races there. Both horses had shown a string of bad races at Turfway Park on Polytrack. Previous to that, each had run at Churchill Downs at a similar maiden claiming level. One horse had run a decent race while the other had shown two "good enough" races for the condition. Both went off at much higher odds relative to the dirt ability they displayed previous to their Polytrack races.

The end result was a tough luck 2nd beaten a neck at 8/1 with Rafael Bejarano aboard and the other was a runaway winner in the 9/1 range (jockey and exact odds escape me right now). Obviously the one I bet was the tough luck 2nd and not the winner. Doesn't it seem to work that way too many times?

Obviously this sample is way too small to show anything significant. It may lead to some solid plays at the Santa Anita winter meet though. If some horses simply do not care for the Cushion Track at Hollywood and go "off form" for a couple of races, it may lead to opportunity when they get back on the dirt at Santa Anita.

From a health perspective for the horses, I'm nowhere near qualified to give an opinion on that. In the long run I just want to see safe racetracks with limited breakdowns. If I never have to witness another breakdown in this game again, it will be a beautiful thing. I'll leave that up to the experts to decide how best to go about it. Until then I'll just continue to help the tracks out by feeding the handle. Good luck.

[Cannon Shell]

If Hollywood's poly plays like Turfway deal with it like its the opposite of the old Keeneland. Meaning that being wide and well off the pace is much better than being on the lead on the rail.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Hollywood's poly plays like Turfway deal with it like its the opposite of the old Keeneland. Meaning that being wide and well off the pace is much better than being on the lead on the rail.

Except tonight when speed is doing very well for a change

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

and don't bet poly winners at oaklawn, none, not one, won this year in ark after succeeding on polycrap.

Most winter Turfway horses wont win anywhere else either because they are BAD horses or they wouldn't be running at Turfway in the winter.