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#1
04-01-2012, 08:49 AM
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4/1: Fair Grounds (7th-10th); Santa Anita ($256k C/O)
Hard not to be ragged after a seemingly endless day of racing that had a parade of emotional swings. Enjoyed the Dubai World Cup action with a pair of bulbous P3 thanks to $24 Duty Free winner Cityscape, but it was all tempered by the awful situation involving fatalities in both runnings of the 2 mile Gold Cup. DRF's Dave Grening made a great point after the second breakdown tweeting that had NYRA run an aborted race a second time with a resultant incident, in the current climate the state would shutter the tracks. Later, was making a nice run at the Aqueduct carryover and delightedly watched Dee Tee's My Pal of Pals run his best career race, but then was scuttled in the multis when Tim Hills' Catch a Thief upset the Plugged Nickle. At Gulfstream, Fort Larned's stunning effort in the Skip Away spoiled the early and middle P4 plays, but the day finished sweetly with the P5/P4 scores that netted $500 on the $144 investment.
Take Charge Indy rewarded his patient fans and Pat Byrne with a dogged Florida Derby win and Grace Hall left little doubt as to her quality with a demolition of the GP Oaks. Union Rags' coronation as Pope Barbaro II was put on hold after a disappointing third that can be atributed in no small measure to muddled jockeying. Julien Leparoux was race ridden by foes throughtout the event and had the big colt in the wrong places every step of the way. Leparoux fatuously said post-race that he supposes other riders 'put a target on the favorite's back'. Guess he missed that course in jockey school. The loss isn't the end of line for Union Rags who got untracked in the final 75 yards and was progressing, but the cloak of invincibility is gone. Hope everybody enjoyed the day and did well! Louisiana Derby Day in NoLa and a $256k double carryover at Santa Anita which will balloon past $1,500,000 with New York closed thanks to byzantine Palm Sunday/Easter Sunday laws. FAIR GROUNDS POST-SCRATCHES 7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) NOTE: #14 (AE) Tutti Buna Gente DOES get in.. Most Likely: #3 Forbidden Forest 7-2 3rd Best Value: #4 Up and Out of Site 12-1 10th Next Best: #14 Tutti Buona Gente 9-2 6th Exorics Use: #5 Grizzled Robert 6-1 11th Super Add: #2 Avenstoke 12-1 12th 8th: 87th New Orleans H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super) SCR #1 Nehro.. Race hinges somewhat on Pants on Fire and how agressive Napravnik chooses to be with him. Nates Mineshaft will obviously go and Mission Impazable -- in special UK Final Four silks -- will tuck behind. If Napravnik prompts, pace could seriously heat up with Redeemed another that can factor on pressure front. All that to say that Toby's Corner may be a prime beneficiary if the grappling on the front end gets particularly overt.. Most Likely: #2 Mission Impazable 5-2 2nd Best Value: #4 Toby's Corner 6-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Fast Alex 8-1 7th Exotics Use: #5 Redeemed 4-1 6th 9th: 20th Mervin Muniz H. (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Good, deep group that includes last year's winner in Smart Bid, a host of locals that have been on the FG turf stake stump all season and invaders from farand wide.. Most Likely: #4 Smart Bid 5-2 7th Next Best: #2 Slow Pace 12-1 5th Best Value: #5 Swift Warrior 12-1 6th Exotics Use: #11 Papaw Bodie 8-1 2nd 10th: 99th Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Bulky field and there shouldn't be anyone viewed as an overwhelming. Mark Valeski would be the most logical certainly and can provide the Joneses -- Brereton and Larry -- with a sophomore sweep after Believe You Can's Oaks win Saturday. Shared Property has had some excuses in the Risen Star and Lecomte and has the ideal opportunity to put it all together after getting the fair draw. Late Maiden-winnings additions to the fray (12-1) Windsurfer (Pletcher/WinStar) and (7-2) Cigar Street (Margolis/Ballis-Lewis) provide intrigue as 'now' types with the former offering a lot more value. Two locals that appear to be escaping mention are Risen Star show horse Z Dager (8-1) and poorly drawn Afford (15-1). Either can juice the exotics.. Most Likely: #1a (POE) Mark Valeski 2-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Shared Property 10-1 5th Next Best: #3 Windsurfer 12-1 6th Exotics Use: #6 Cigar Street 7-2 4th Super Add: #13 Afford 15-1 7th <$50 P4 Play: 7: 3-4-5-14 8: 2-4 9: 2-4 10: 1-3-6-7-10-13 4x2x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48 SANTA ANITA POST-SCRATCHES 4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) $256k C/O starts here.. Seems like there's a lot of speed here.. Most Likely: #8 SCR Next Best: #1 Koast 6-5 WON ($3.00) Exotics Use: #3 SCR Super Add: #6 Frenemy 8-1 2nd 5th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Trapper's Bounty 8-5 WON ($5.40) Next Best: #7 Line One 3-1 7th Best Value: #4 Mona Storm 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #3 You Can Dream 4-1 2nd 6th: Cal-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Shezabigbroad 5-2 3rd Best Value: #8 Speedway Monkey 6-1 5th Next Best: #7 Unusual Hottie 2-1 2nd Exotics Use: #3 Bodie Girl 4-1 WON ($11.20) 7th: CLM/N2L, 3/4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Odd race with conditions for 3yo's that gets Ello Guv a 9# break on most of the field as lone sophomore taking advantage. Hard to be enthused about any of the three ML faves, especially with #4 Uzziah (7-2) just 1 for 24 career. Will cast my lot with 8-1 outsiders Panther's Claw and Moonlight Beach grabbing hold of some karma angles and positive reviews of their sunrise semesters.. Best Value: #9 Moonlight Beach 8-1 5th Next Best: #8 Panther's Claw 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Jim's Decision 5-2 4th Super Add: #4 Uzziah 7-2 7th 8th: 1st Sidd Finch, 4+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Leave it Hammer to name a 4/1 feature after the greatest April Fool's prank in history. Well-matched set too. Dewey's Special dangerous all the way if Donato doesn't engage.. Most Likely: #5 Calimonco 5-2 WON ($7.20) Next Best: #2 Dewey's Special 8-5 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Haimish Hy 3-1 4th Super Add: #4 Donato 6-1 6th 9th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5) Scramble to close out tricky sequence with 4 of the firsters looking OK.. Most Likely: #10 Night Wind 9-2 5th Next Best: #11 Enduring Promise 5-2 2nd Best Value: #8 Pretty Darn Quick 3-1 WON ($8.60) Exotics Use: #3 Kilat 6-1 9th <$150 P5 P6 Play: 4: 1 5: 1-7 6: 6-8 7: 8-9 8: 2-5-6 9: 8-10-11 1x2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 6-8 7: 4-5-8-9 8: 2-5-6 9: 1-3-5-8-10-11 2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 04-01-2012 at 08:11 PM. 
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#2
04-01-2012, 11:59 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
04-01-2012, 04:59 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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