5/4: Churchill Downs (Kentucky Oaks Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 138 KENTUCKY OAKS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, Super)

You start handicapping a big weekend card and it's a modest-looking group of MDN fillies until you come to Margolis sending $475k Ghostzapper daughter out of the great Azeri to her 2nd start (#6 Wine Princess)..

Most Likely: #1 Holiday's Jewel 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Finallyarealady 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Wine Princess 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #3 Ticket to Broadway 8-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

I'll give Monarchic one more chance getting Castellano after enduring super premium headaches in last under Leparoux..

Most Likely: #4 Monarchic 7-2 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #7 Madris 8-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Lord Tarzan 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Flexiplus 12-1 10th


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Jones filly doesn't look like she'll be caught..

Best Value: #4 YOUNG AND LOVELY 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Delightful Magic 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Queen Teuta 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Malibu Holiday 4-1 5th


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group that may require wide spread in both P4's..

Best Value: #7 Illegally Blonde 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Funny Proposition 6-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Ire 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Uptown Bertie 4-1 2nd


5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Dancinginherdreams 10-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #1 Bouquet Booth 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Sassy's Dream 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Vera Belle 8-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-7-10
3: 4-7
4: 1-3-4-6-7
5: 1-3-4-6-10

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


6th: La Troienne (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Suppose singling Plum Pretty the way to go in the P4/P6, but a couple small backups or P3's with Juanita and Afleeting Lady may be worthwhile just in case the fave misfires..

Most Likely: #4 Plum Pretty 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Juanita 8-1 WON ($35.40)
Next Best: #1 Afleeting Lady 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 St. John's River 5-1 2nd


7th: Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Under the radar event features three speedy gals in Contested, Small Kitchen and Good Deed. Small Kitchen turns back which could be the perfect formula and if things collapse, Xunlei can pick them up late..

Most Likely: #7 Contested 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #2 Small Kitchen 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Good Deed 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Xunlei 6-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-6-7
5: 1-3-4-6-10
6: 4
7: 2-3-7

5x5x1x3 = $75 ($37.50 for .50)


8th: Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hard to get too adventurous against Stephanie's Kitten, but you can certainly play around with numbers underneath..

Most Likely: #3 Stephanie's Kitten 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #8 Late SCR
Next Best: #10 Treasured Up 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Run a Risk 6-1 9th


9th: Alysheba, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Absolutely terrific assembly of handicap talent. Nates Mineshaft will not sneak off on this group..

Most Likely: #4 Mucho Macho Man 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Fort Larned 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Successful Dan 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Nates Mineshaft 5-1 6th


10th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

All the Derby talk about how good the 3yo crop may be and here's 14 turfers to consider in that discussion. The field's two graded stakes winners are rendered vulnerable marooned far outside setting up an incredible wagering opportunity..

Best Value: #10 Travel Advisory 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Gung Ho 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Scatman 20-1 10th
Super Add: #8 Finnegans Wake 20-1 4th


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Truly an ideal distaff side prequel to Saturday's feature as an outstanding set of fillies strive for the lilies. As much as pace has been discussed for Derby, this event features as many or more front end oriented runners, so anyone that can sit comfortably or close stoutly should get their chance. Favored pair inside (On Fire Baby/Grace Hall) are formidable but not invincible and as strong as Broadway's Alibi has been it's tough not respect her as she tries to stretch out 220 more yards. Jemima's Pearl couldn't have been more impressive matching strides with Bodemeister the other morning and feels like the right price to use prominently v. Summer Applause who has been AWOL a little during morning training hours..

Most Likely: #2 Grace Hall 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Jemima's Pearl 10-1 10th
Next Best: #1 On Fire Baby 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Broadway's Alibi 4-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #10 And Why Not 15-1 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4
7: 2-3-7
8: 3
9: 2-3-4
10: 2-10
11: 1-2-6-8

1x3x1x3x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3
9: 2-3-4
10: 2-5-7-8-10-11-13-14
11: 1-2-6-8-10-11

1x3x8x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$50 Oaks-Derby Double:

Oaks: 1-2-6-8
Derby: 3-4-5-10-15-18

4x6 = 24 x $2 = $48


<$100 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Oaks: 1-2-6-8
Woodford: 2-5-6-10
Derby: 3-4-5-10-15-18

4x4x6 = $96


12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Card starts with a notable pedigree in daughter of Azeri and ends with one via debuting Bellazzeria, a Henny Hughes bay out of nice MSW Boots n' Jackie making her a half to the memorable Supah Blitz (!) as well as through Bernie Flint's FTS Divine Dispatch, a Touch Gold daughter that is a full sister of Composure and Ready Set..

Most Likely: #6 Vuitton 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 That's Me 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Divine Dispatch 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Totally Tucker 5-1 WON ($11.40)


Good luck!
Steve

[declansharbor]

Thank you Steve for the hard work and dedication. I hope you knock it out of the park this weekend!

[tywizard]

Steve - Plan to play the O/W/D Pk3? I can wait for your final derby analysis, but could use some help narrowing the Woodford. Thanks!

[Rootdog1]

love me some Scatman in the 10th....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

love me some Scatman in the 10th....

R/D,

Finished up with purpose on the lawn the other morning.. As always, BOL!

[hockey2315]

Really like Travel Advisory tomorrow. . .

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by Kasept

R/D,

Finished up with purpose on the lawn the other morning.. As always, BOL!

Steve - Yes, lots of chatter about this one's work on the turf. Gonna be in front, just wonder if he can hold on.

Good luck this weekend. As always, all your efforts are appreciated.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Steve - Plan to play the O/W/D Pk3? I can wait for your final derby analysis, but could use some help narrowing the Woodford. Thanks!

Ty,

Will play the P3. Turallure should be tighter. Doubles Partner to be respected. Slim Shadey is worthwhile on a backup ticket. Brilliant Speed ran best career race this lawn. Data Link is a question mark at the 9f trip. If you're looking to be narrow here, heavy up on the first two.

Good luck!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Thank you Steve for the hard work and dedication. I hope you knock it out of the park this weekend!

Thanks very much Mike.. BOL! Should be a great weekend..

Good luck today, Steve. Should be a sizzling day at the downs!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Good luck today, Steve. Should be a sizzling day at the downs!

THX Coach.. Get yourself some!