Has any horse in history ever done less & was 12/1 to win the Derby two months out?

[Calzone Lord]

Flashback is monumentally overhyped.

[Calzone Lord]

Here is the extent of Flashback's career so far:

Start #1: He ran in an extremely fast paced 7f maiden race at Hollywood Park. Everyone collapsed late and he drew off as the last one standing.

Start #2: He faces just 3 other challengers. He is allowed a loose lead through fractions of 24.17 and 48.69 going 8.5f -- On the same card, Tritap and Handsome Mike hook up through fractions of 22.52 and 46.23 going 9 furlongs on dirt.

We are two months away, and he closed at odds of 12/1 to win the Derby.

He simply won a maiden race and beat a field of 3 others with an uncontested lead through slow early fractions. Has he run impressive figures? no. Has he had trips? no.

[Calzone Lord]

Orb at 12/1 is terrible value.

Truth be told, I'd rather have a bet on Flashback of the two, because at least you have a little more of a wildcard factor with Flashback.

[pweizer]

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

[santana]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Which of Bafferts horses should have been a lower price ?

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Goldencents is certainly more established. I may be a little interested in Salutos Amigos.

Oh, and of the Bafferts, I would take Super 99 over Flashback at double the price all day long.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

Who are you looking at in the field?

And given the hype and the Baffert factor, I would bet he goes off odds on.

Paul

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb at 12/1 is terrible value.

Truth be told, I'd rather have a bet on Flashback of the two, because at least you have a little more of a wildcard factor with Flashback.

I have Orb at 80-1. Hope he keeps improving.

[herkhorse]

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

He was totally spent from spending the week in Vegas with you and Rella. At least he rested up when cuddling with Rella.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

Nice call, the day after the race Shug was on with Steve and said Orb will run forever. Trainers are wrong all the time but Shug bearly tells you he like a horse after a G3 win, if he says the horse can run all day he means it. Orb may not be good enough to win G1 races but distance isnt going to be the issue..

[santana]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Flashback is monumentally overhyped.

While i certainly respect your opinion, i think he looks like a really good horse so far, and when it really counts he will show up.....and yes , he is my pick as of now to win the Derby........

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Flashback is monumentally overhyped.

Agreed. If he's really good, he sure hasn't shown it yet. Maybe he will, but I wish I could give a LOT of 12:1 to be proven wrong.