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#1
06-30-2013, 07:58 AM
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6/30: Belmont Park ($74k C/O)
Upsets in Saturday's Belmont stakes tripped enormous mutuels in the late multis as well as a $74k carryover into Sunday's state bred-laden sequence. Starformer, 5-1 in the morning but ignored at nearly 16-1 at post time, returned to her norm and swiped the New York under Edgar Prado. Paul Pompa's Baby J won the Victory Ride as the longest shot on the board and it represented trainer Pat Reynolds first graded stakes win in 4+ years. I thought Starformer was worth using in the multis figuring her Sheepshead Bay was simply too bad to worry about, but left Baby J off the play as she seemed pretty implausible under most scenarios. However, the 3 favored Pletcher and Dutrow fillies didn't run at all and with Prime Devill ($5.10) and Saints Alive ($19.80) in the late pair, the P4 returned $3,444 for half a buck. Hope everyone did OK. Three NY bred stakes as part of the super-competitive sextet Sunday...
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD) 5-2 fave Native One SCR'd from yesterday's Victory Ride for this. That may not have been such a great idea as she faces tougher today. Obviously can win, but needs new best and that still might not be enough. Cover in multis but try to beat.. Most Likely: #9 Momentary Magic 3-1 3rd Best Value: #3 McCarren Park 20-1 7th Next Best: #6 Seasoned Warrior 4-1 4th Exotics Use: #7 Native One 5-2 5th 5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD) $74k C/O starts here.. Tricky start to sequence. Speed, and potential controlling speed, seems likely to come from Stonely the Lonely. Turnback threat obvious from favored Quiet Power and I think Junior Officer has plenty of appeal stalking from outside.. Most Likely: #1 Quiet Power 8-5 2nd Best Value: #6 Junior Officer 8-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Stonely the Lonely 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #5 Groomedforvictory 5-2 WON ($7.10) 6th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD) Even with top choices from strong outfits (8-5 Tulita; 2-1 Brianna Nicole), there are difficult reads aplenty in Leg B of sequence. Six are making surface switches or turf bows, while Vinhdiation Spot SCR and Ishkabibble are in new hands. Only 1-8-9 seem impossible to me.. Most Likely: #5 Brianna Nicole 2-1 8th Next Best: #4 Tulita 8-5 WON ($4.20) Best Value: #2 High Inflation 20-1 4th Exotics Use: #10 J Rose Gal 15-1 3rd 7th: 7th NYSS-Cupecoy's Joy, 3yo-F, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD) Terrific group with any number of options including big pricey ones like 8-1 Frosty Bay, 15-1 Stellerite and 30-1 Zekes Surprise. Budget-strainer for P6/P4 plays.. Most Likely: #3 Image of Noon 6-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Zekes Surprise 30-1 6th Next Best: #1 Wellspring Legacy 5-2 8th Exotics Use: #8 Frosty Bay 8-1 WON ($18.80) 8th: Shy Groom-NY, 3+, 7f (P3, DD) Saratoga Snacks finally back for 4yo debut and working well, but this is a tough return assignment for Gary and Coach Parcells Tale of the Cat colt. Rosario takes over for Ramon and many will want to lean heavily here for P6 single, but host of veteran win types likes Mine Over Matter, Be Bullish and Fiddlers Afleet make it a risky prop. Over and above the elders, B Shanny has done little wrong and Willy Beamin figures to get it back together at some point too.. Most Likely: #5 Saratoga Snacks 8-5 WON ($3.70) Best Value: #1 Mine Over Matter 5-1 2nd Next Best: #7 B Shanny 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #4 Fiddlers Afleet 6-1 4th 9th: 8th NYSS-Spectacular Bid, 3+, 7f-T (DD) No relief in sight with another good group in this set.. Best Value: #8 Belief System 8-1 11th Next Best: #5 West Hills Giant 5-2 WON ($7.30) Exotics Use: #1e Winter Park ownership entry 10-1 7th/8th Super Add: #4 Orino 20-1 6th 10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT Most Likely: #8 Atlantic's Smile 3-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Uman Candy 6-1 5th Best Value: #5 All Mine Tonight 10-1 WON ($15.80) Exotics Use: #9 Done Smoking 6-1 4th <$150 P6 Play: 5: 1-2-6 6: 4-5 7: 1-3-5-8 8: 5 9: 8 10: 5-7-8 3x2x4x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$50 P4 Play: 7: 1-3-5-8-9 8: 1-5 9: 1-5-8 10: 5-7-8 5x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45 $0.50 Pick 4 (8/5,6/5/5) Paid $318.25 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-30-2013 at 07:15 PM. 
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#2
06-30-2013, 11:02 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-30-2013 at 02:12 PM.
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#3
06-30-2013, 05:46 PM
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Nice pick 4 Steve . Good profit on nice small play
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#5
06-30-2013, 07:18 PM
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Knicks/Larry..
Thanks guys. Fun afternoon and weekend. Hope everybody did well! Looking forward to returning to the air Wednesday and the big Holiday week of action.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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