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#1
12-31-2013, 08:03 AM
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12/31: Aqueduct ($94k 'Must Pay' C/O)
Bit of a maddening beat at Aqueduct Sunday when live to 2 horses for a P6 conso and 4 runners for sizeable P4's thanks to the multi ticket approach. Though AE-draw in Silver Day (7-1) got by 6-1 Money in Motion and 37-1 Classic R&B to quash the P4 opportunity, the fact was driven home that the more elaborate ticket structuring puts you in best position for scores. A win by Classic R&B specifically was worth $3,619. If unaware, DRF Ticketmaker makes it simple to build your multi plays: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker
The sequence was stood on its' ear early when implausible Go West Marie ($25) won the first leg and widespread single A.P. Cino failed in the second. A.P. Cino's loss is another example of how the multi ticket approach keeps you in the hunt longer and more often as Photon was on 20% of the plays and helped get the investment in position for at least a conso. Despite the P4/P6 misses, the day was bouyed along by Modern Child who was nicely piloted by Rajiv Maragh for a $38 tote bump. Only one horse was live for the P6 in the nightcap and the Chatterpaul winner wasn't it, so a must-pay P6 opportunity results on this New Year's Eve card. There's also a similar forced distribution at Laurel in their P5. Hope everyone has had a good 2013 and enjoyed the excellent year of racing to which we were treated. From a balance sheet perspective, I lost several thousand this year but take solace in the fact that the Del Mar P6 DQ out of $23k+ turns this recap into a gloatfest. As Damon Runyon said, 'all horseplayers die broke', but as long as you're north of the loam, you're live in the next race... Best of luck to everyone today and warm wishes for a 2014 filled with health, happiness, love and good fortune. Steve  AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD) $94k Must Pay P6 C/O starts here.. Not 100% convinced that favored Sun and Moon (2-1) is reliable and if it's not her or returning Sustainable (5-2), this race could get messy fast. Aqua Regia gets first Lasix after losing any chance at start of debut. Tizarocket showed more speed in last and subsequently fired 3 straight bullets on 5 day intervals.. Most Likely: #2 Sun and Moon 2-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Sustainable 5-2 WON ($6.90) Best Value: #7 Aqua Regia 15-1 3rd Exotics Use: #1 Tizarocket 6-1 4th 5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Unless a short rest regression saps Moments Notiz, he appears tough to beat (A). Consistent inner track performer Frazil, Linda Rice's other player Quick Money and Island Sunset SCR'D on the barn switch to Jacobson are contenders (B's). 10-1 Head Heart Hoof (Entered for 1/1/14) and 12-1 Exley merit a glance (C's).. Most Likely: #11 Moments Notiz 8-5 WON ($3.70) Next Best: #7 Quick Money 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #4 Frazil 7-2 2nd Super Add: #10 Head Heart Hoof 10-1 7th 6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Forged (half to MSW sprinter Comedero) and American Creed exit the 12/7 MDN heat that produced Groupthink & Uncle Sigh in a photo. Uncle Sigh then smoked in second start last week. Frost Jordan moves inside after wide-ish trip debut. Mark Twain has a terrific worktab for 5/2-0-1 at meet Leo O'Brien and was sold for nearly 3x the average price for a Noonmark yearling. All Over Me is out of $174k earner Leawood who was better on grass but an OK main track sprinter. Slippery Cannizzo won first out with River Dancer and Sol the Dancer earlier this year.. Most Likely: #1 Frost Jordan 3-1 WON ($3.90) Next Best: #3 Forged 7-2 10th Best Value: #8 Mark Twain 10-1 7th Exotics Use: #7 American Creed 4-1 5th 7th: NY-OC/N1X, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD) Sidearm, Geaux Mets SCR'D and Sandcat mixed it up to noses and necks 3 weeks ago and also crossed paths with impressive Samraat, (as did Eye Luv Lulu in his debut). Tricky element in this set is 5.5f distance, a configuration at which Double Gold, Sol the Freud and Sandcat all broke their maidens. Don't be put off by Eye Luv Lulu winning v. MCLM/$50k as that was open company and a good equivalent to NY-MSW's. Sing the Dream (20-1) may not be a win candidate, but could boost your tri or super. Very good race.. Best Value: #6 Eye Luv Lulu 7-2 WON ($16.00) Next Best: #3 Sol the Freud 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #7 Sandcat 4-1 8th Super Add: #8 Sing the Dream 20-1 5th 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD) Most Likely: #7 Fortify 2-1 5th Best Value: #5 Snake Pit 12-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Cease 6-1 WON ($11.00) Exotics Use: #3 Hackleton 30-1 7th 9th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y Most Likely: #5 Tycoon Cat 5-1 WON ($18.20) Next Best: #2 Petrocelli 3-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Star of New York 10-1 7th Exotics Use: #9 Here Comes Tommy 7-2 8th <$200 P6 Play: All A Entries 1 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6) A's with One B 2 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 3 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 4 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 - $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6) 5 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 - $8.00 A's with Two B's 6 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 7 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 - $8.00 8 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 - $8.00 9 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 5 with 5 - $8.00 10 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 2 - $8.00 11 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 2 - $8.00 A's with One C 12 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 13 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 4 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 14 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 7,8 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 15 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $16.00 16 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 3,9 with 5 - $16.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $11,354.00 (6OF6) 17 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 7 - $8.00 Total: $152.00 <$100 P4 Play: All A Entries 1 $2.00 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 A's with One B 2 $1.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $6.00 3 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $6.00 4 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 - $12.00 $1.50 Pick 4 (1/6/9/5) Paid $915.00 5 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 - $6.00 A's with Two B's 6 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $2.00 7 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 - $4.00 8 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 - $2.00 9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 5,9 with 5 - $4.00 10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 7 - $2.00 11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 7 - $4.00 A's with One C 12 $0.50 pick P4: 10 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $1.00 13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 1,4 with 7 with 5 - $2.00 14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 3,10 with 5 - $4.00 15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 2 - $2.00 Total: $65.00 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 01-01-2014 at 07:58 AM. 
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#2
12-31-2013, 11:10 AM
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AQU SCR/CHG'S
A few highly impactful SCR's for P6 players.. And it's rather notable that 3 of the vet SCR's on the day are Island Sunset (5th), Geaux Mets (7th) and Spa City Fever (8th).
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
12-31-2013, 12:59 PM
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Steve- I always enjoy reading your comments, when you have the time, prior to the race day. Even more so today. You tell it like it is. Win or lose. You're not about excuses. We still have one more day to get into the positve and thats what keeps the adrenaline flowing. Thanks for another fun and exciting racing season, and the chance to bust it open next year (if it doesn't happen today).
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#4
12-31-2013, 02:17 PM
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Thanks very much.. BOL today and all good things for you and yours in 2014!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
12-31-2013, 02:42 PM
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6th race adviso... Chatterpaul FTS Thrill Hill, shipped back up from FL for this, took early money and has maintained it. White Wabbit people that won the nightcap Sunday with Silver Day.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
12-31-2013, 02:55 PM
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That's the 2nd time Frost Jordan has looked hopeless in midstretch only to unleash a huge rally in the last 1/8. Just missed last time, this time it was enough to get him up.
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#7
12-31-2013, 02:16 PM
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$529,893 in new money added to the C/O $93,867 in the AQU P6 pool.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
12-31-2013, 05:27 PM
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Quote:
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