3/27-29 (CD): KY Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4

Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds

1. Albano, 50-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
3. Bobby’s Kitten, 30-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1
4. Cairo Prince, 6-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1
5. California Chrome, 5-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
6. Candy Boy, 12-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f)

7. Chitu, 10-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
8. Constitution, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
9. General a Rod, 30-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
10. Hoppertunity, 12-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1
12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f)

13. Midnight Hawk, 20-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f)
14. Ride On Curlin, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1
15. Ring Weekend, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
16. Samraat, 15-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
17. Social Inclusion, 20-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
18. Strong Mandate, 20-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1

19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f)
20. Uncle Sigh, 30-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f)
21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 50-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f)
22. We Miss Artie, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
24. Field (all others), 8-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5

(f) – denotes field entry

[cakes44]

Anything even resembling a decent price in there?

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Anything even resembling a decent price in there?

As always the final prices will differ considerably from the ML but to answer the question using the ML odds - Not many in my opinion.

There could be value in Bobby's Kitten. Other than that, if you think Tapiture, Strong Mandate or Ride On Curlin can win the Arkansas Derby they might offer some relative value.

Curious to see who people are most excited about with regard to who is left in "the field." I still think Commissioner and Tonalist are interesting.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by tywizard

As always the final prices will differ considerably from the ML but to answer the question using the ML odds - Not many in my opinion.

There could be value in Bobby's Kitten. Other than that, if you think Tapiture, Strong Mandate or Ride On Curlin can win the Arkansas Derby they might offer some relative value.

Curious to see who people are most excited about with regard to who is left in "the field." I still think Commissioner and Tonalist are interesting.

How much you looking to bet on BK?

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

How much you looking to bet on BK?

None. Just answering the question that was asked. If he runs in and wins the Bluegrass you won't be able to get anything close to 30-1 in May. At least not in the win pool.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Anything even resembling a decent price in there?

I'd bet Candy Boy at 12:1

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I'd bet Candy Boy at 12:1

Even if he won his next with a 107 BSF what is the lowest price he would be in the KD 5/1? Why not just a parlay...Prep-Derby

[pmayjr]

If you think Intense Holiday takes care of biz in the LA Derby, he won't be 20-1 in the KY Derby. Even if the future closes on him at 15-1, I think you get more value than you would betting him on Derby Day.

Also, Ring Weekend isn't that much of a fuke. 50-1? That's too good to at least not make a flyer on. 30-1 would even be ok for that

[freddymo]

I like Intense Holiday as well but hard to root for connections for me at least

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Even if he won his next with a 107 BSF what is the lowest price he would be in the KD 5/1? Why not just a parlay...Prep-Derby

I agree. He was the value in other pools, I have him 2x and said it back then. I think he will beat California Chrome in a week in a half, him and the Baffert who won at Oaklawn should put on a nice show.

[RockHardTen1985]

I still think Uncle Sigh could be value. If he wins the Wood he will be 15 or 20-1 and he will likely be over 50-1 when this pool closes. I have him at 73 and 42 though, so Ill sit chilly.

[declansharbor]

While I hope I am proved wrong, this crop as a whole does nothing to excite me.

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 ~ Final Odds

Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds

1. Albano, 45-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
3. Bobby’s Kitten, 35-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1
4. Cairo Prince, 9-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1
5. California Chrome, 9-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
6. Candy Boy, 13-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f)

7. Chitu, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
8. Constitution, 19-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
9. General a Rod, 24-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
10. Hoppertunity, 15-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1
12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f)

13. Midnight Hawk, 50-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f)
14. Ride On Curlin, 45-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1
15. Ring Weekend, 24-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
16. Samraat, 17-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
17. Social Inclusion, 11-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
18. Strong Mandate, 30-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1

19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f)
20. Uncle Sigh, 45-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f)
21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 35-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f)
22. We Miss Artie, 35-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
24. Field (all others), 5-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5

(f) – denotes field entry

[letswastemoney]

Poor bettors got 9/1 on Cairo Prince, when he's going to be 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Poor bettors got 9/1 on Cairo Prince, when he's going to be 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby.

He's going to be in the Derby?

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Kasept

He's going to be in the Derby?

It should be enough points to get in, if they intend to go. 24 points was good enough last year and the bubble horses tend to drop out the last week.

I haven't read anything that they don't intend to go.

[Kasept]

They are going to need a few things to break their way over the next 2 weeks. The Tonalists, Social Inclusions, Schoolofhardrocks, Gala Awards and Bayerns will be leapfrogging him right quick.