6/7: Belmont Park (Belmont Stakes Day)

[Kasept]

The best of the game is going to be showcased at Belmont Park today with a backdrop of an attempt at the rarest of feats in all of sport. Since Baltimore, we have spent a good portion of 45 hours on ATR discussing the prospects of California Chrome winning again in New York and there is no obvious reason as of today to think that he cannot. In advance of the 6:52p feature and thanks to a brilliant job by the NYRA racing office, we are to be treated to a non-stop festival of handicapping puzzles providing 7+ hours of wagering opportunities. Like a Breeders' Cup Saturday card, it will likely take just one or two hits to make the day a winning one, so fire away and don't panic if you don't score immediately. The big hit is there for you individually -- maybe in the 13th -- and for all of us in the 11th with a win by the favorite. Hope everyone enjoyed ATR coverage from Belmont as much as I enjoyed bringing it to you. Best of luck to participants on track and off. Safe trips to all..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Live prices appear to abound to start day with Away Game (12-1), Spartiatis (10-1) and Wabbajack (8-1) jumping out, but top three faves have real merit. Bernardo (3-1) 7/2-1-2 at BEL, gets Jose Ortiz back and return to race two back plenty good enough. Jimmy Connors (4-1) adds blinks to already certain leadership and can wire. $1,000,000 Tapit son Forever Thing (7-2) is first time as a 4yo and has likely progressed considerably since last summer..

Most Likely: #7 Forever Thing 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Away Game 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Spartiatis 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Jimmy Connors 4-1 8th


2nd: 4th Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Legend's last 2 efforts have been outstanding and though he faces a quality cast, looks like a breakout star in the making getting classic conservative Bond development handling. Life in Shambles bested Tonalist in tandem drill a week ago..

Most Likely: #7 LEGEND 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Life in Shambles 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Pass the Coffee 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Misconnect 4-1 4th


3rd: 126th Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

A dress rehearsal for the Belmont 6 hours later and interesting to note that 7 of the riders of the 8 here have calls in the feature. The Drosselmeyer prep players look like the right ones and Eriugena provides value entering on a roll with a pedigree that screams the trip..

Most Likely: #3 Micromanage 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Ground Transport 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Eriugena 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Ever Rider 5-1 4th


4th: 31st Jaipur (G3), 4+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Fun cast with the amazing Ben's Cat on hand to make his turf debut in New York and 6 of the 11 looking possible on top. With Marriedtothemusic choosing to run Friday in the True North, pace duties fall to Marchman and Ben's Cat and the pair may take some catching. Positive Side adds Lasix after bleeding in the CD stake and gets heads up lawn pilot Nakatani..

Most Likely: #9 Positive Side 8-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Ben's Cat 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Upgrade 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Marchman 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Anyriderill Do 20-1 6th


5th: 30th Woody Stephen -- formerly Riva Ridge (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Havana never had a chance to distinguish himself on the Triple Crown stomp this winter and spring, but this spot appears prime for Champagne winner to kickstart his sophomore season. Top Fortitiude has been a favorite of mine from day one and I love that Kory Owens was compelled to show up for this. Social Inclusion may overwhelm this set cutting back from Preakness, but it feels equally likely that he gets nothing. Tough call..

Most Likely: #3 Havana 6-1 11th
Best Value: #12 Top Fortitude 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Social Inclusion 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Kobe's Back 15-1 4th


$100 P5 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
6 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

7 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $12.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
12 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 11,12 - $16.00

A's with One C

17 $0.50 pick P5: 2,4 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
18 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 3,5,8 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $6.00
19 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 4,8 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
20 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 6,10 - $4.00

Total: $101.00


<$65 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $12.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 9 with 11,12 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 11,12 - $16.00

A's with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5,8 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,8 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 6,11 with 3 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 7,10 - $4.00

Total: $65.00


6th: 84th Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

You can get creative and try to create some alternate scenarios, but on her best, My Miss Sophia remains second of her sex to Untapable. As Andy Serling points out, she may be best on the lead in two turn routes, but she broke her maiden on a one turn layout and doesn't have to be part of the hot pace. After her, any among House Rules, Fiftyshadesofgold, Sweet Reason, Unbridled Forever and returning Artemis Agrotera are plausible..

Most Likely: #8 My Miss Sophia 6-5 7th
Best Value: #7 Unbridled Forever 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Artemis Agrotera 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Sweet Reason 10-1 WON ($20.80)


7th: 46th Ogden Phipps -- formerly Hempstead H. (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

The billing for this started nearly three months ago and needs no further embellishment with a set of 4yo fillies that are collectively 12/12 going the 8.5f trip. Princess of Sylmar looks to get her set up here but I don't think she can get to Beholder. The Breeders' Cup Distaff in June..

Most Likely: #5 Beholder 7-5 4th
Next Best: #6 Princess of Sylmar 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Close Hatches 5-2 WON ($7.80)


8th: 21st Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Top pair line up from the 9 & 10 holes with Discreet Marq needing to find early forward position and Better Lucky not wanting to get shuffled too far back..

Most Likely: #10 Better Lucky 3-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Discreet Marq 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Somali Lemonade 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Stephanie's Kitten 4-1 5th


9th: 121st Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Spectacular edition of this historic event and cannot blame anyone for taking their price shots. Of the prime contenders, Palace Malice (8-5), Normandy Invasion (5-1) and Shakin It Up (6-1) are the most logical. Perfectly drawn Shakin It Up is the key if that price is holding. Looking to the numbers, consistent Moreno (10-1) and turnback Romansh (15-1) have real chances. Vyjack will be every bit of his ML 30-1 tab and could charge the exotics 2nd/layoff..

Most Likely: #13 Shakin It Up 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Palace Malice 8-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #5 Moreno 10-1 12th
Exotics Use: #9 Normandy Invasion 5-1 10th
Super Add: #12 Romansh 15-1 3rd


10th: 113th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Entire group may be separated by less than 3 lengths on paper, which makes you want to take a chance and find a price. Rookie Sensation (12-1) has been much improved as a 4yo, though his record obscures it. Was able to close ground on hard-baked Santa Anita lawn and that bodes well for his prospects on a real turf course. Shipped to NY by Shirreffs immediately after near miss in Last Tycoon and :59.4 drill 5/19 tells you what you need to know. Surprise package in slightly soft running of this century-plus standard..

Best Value: #3 ROOKIE SENSATION 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Real Solution 5-1 WON ($13.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Imagining 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Grandeur 5-1 4th


10th: 146th Belmont S. (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

The Belmont Stakes has unique constructs on an annual basis that are further amplified under Triple Crown attempt conditions. The urge to anoint a Triple Crown winner is based on performances that seem germane, the Derby and Preakness, but in reality, are not. The 11th and 12th furlongs of the Belmont -- a quarter of a mile further than the Derby -- makes handicapping this 'test of the Champion' completely different. To distill the equation in another way, how would you approach the merits of these 11 horses if all were exiting 6f races but were now going 1 mile? Or pretend every horse in the Derby had never been beyond a mile and were now going a mile and a quarter. Two extra furlongs is 4+ football fields AFTER the group has already run the Derby distance. With that planted in your mind, recall all the implausible horses over the years that have invaded the pay slots of this event. They do so because the speed figures and general maxims of our handicapping on a daily basis do not apply as readily for these uncharted waters. With that established, feel free to include the likes of Commissioner (20-1), Medal Count (20-1), Matuszak (30-1) and even Matterhorn (30-1) with the major players that you feel you know.

We have all come to know the Triple Crown candidate best of course and there's nothing in his approach to the race that suggests he cannot -- or will not -- succeed today. Victor Espinoza will have every opportunity to choose his position early with none of the horses around him interested in being forwardly placed from the bell. Depending on what Samraat, General a Rod and Tonalist do, California Chrome and Espinoza can stalk or dictate. He can win on the front end if the pace is moderate and he can get first run on whomever is left in front after the first 6f to a mile. Either way, he will have to brace for challenges later from credentialed Wicked Strong and Ride On Curlin and/or Commissioner and the other one-paced grinders. If up to the task, we will be treated to a performance and Triple Crown winner that will stand up to the requisite scrutiny of the achievement's heavy mantle. Despite all the obvious faults of the stance from a wagering perspective, I'm voting for..

Most Likely: #2 California Chrome 3-5 4th-DH
Next Best: #9 Wicked Strong 6-1 4th-DH
Best Value: #8 Commissioner 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Ride On Curlin 12-1 11th
Super Add: #4 Commanding Curve 15-1 9th


<$65 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $8.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 3,8 with 2 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 2 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 9 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 9 with 3,8 with 2 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 2 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 9 - $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 1,4 with 2 - $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 3,8 with 9 - $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 9 - $4.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 5,12 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 4,5,8,11 - $16.00

Total: $64.00


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Shining Copper 8-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Developer 20-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Ghurair 9-5 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #4 North Star Boy 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Artic North 10-1 8th


13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #11 Celebrator 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Pazolini 3-1 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #12 Quick Money 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Protocol 6-1 7th
Super Add: #15 Associate 15-1 9th


<$65 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 8 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 7,8 with 10,12,15 - $6.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,5,6,7 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11 with 11 with 8,1 - $18.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 2,4 with 8,11 - $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 1,5 - $2.00

Total: $65.00

Good luck!
Steve

[tomm5647]

Steve: I know how hard you worked this week and I enjoyed all the coverage and the insights. Thank you very much and have a great day. I must wonder what the motivation is to type Commanding Curve when I'm sure that you meant California Chrome. A Freudian slip?
Tom

[senator L]

Enjoy your work immensely.

[Kasept]

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening 1m

Fast and Firm at BEL. Here are scratches: Race 3- #7; Race 4-#3,7. Race 8-#3. Race 9--#6. Race 12- 1A, 1X, 3, 13,14. Race 13 - 2,6, 16

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[asudevil]

Great work all week.....goes appreciated.

Let's all enjoy this day as we've been given a treat from the NYRA racing office and the weather gods.