The Cops are coming after me...

...because that was absolutely stealing to get 5-2 on Scat Daddy. How could the public bet a maiden winner by Albert the Great to 8-5 favoritism over him? Somedays its just that easy....

Lukas' horse had no excuse after walking on an easy lead...I'm sure they'll still run him in the Breeders' Cup knowing that outfit, but he'll only set the pace to the far turn....he's a sprinter...Nobiz is nice and has a future...he just got beat by the best 2-year-old in the country yesterday...

BTW, Scat Daddy got a 93 Beyer Speed Figure for that performance, which was still not close to his best run IMO....never really laid it down in the stretch and was still showing immense greeness...I believe he'll even run better around two-turns in Louisville....

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Hope you had that exacta. I wish that I would have bet yesterday because I would have definitely had it. Scat Daddy was the class of the field and I couldn't believe that price on him. I'm on his bandwagon for the Juvy, but look for Nobiz Like Shobiz to improve off of that start. Two incredibly game and talented animals. I look for both of them to run big in the Juvy.

[randallscott35]

I don't know about stealing Joel. With a better trip for No Biz you are a loser. Hardly a dominating performance.

[2Hot4TV]

It was stealing. No other way to discribe it.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I don't know about stealing Joel. With a better trip for No Biz you are a loser. Hardly a dominating performance.

Scat Daddy didn't even run his best and he still powered by Nobiz withy little effort....Scat is still very green and they're not close to the bottom of him yet IMO...I agree the other horse is talented (especially for his pedigree) and has a bright future, but the best horse won yesterday...

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Scat Daddy didn't even run his best and he still powered by Nobiz withy little effort....Scat is still very green and they're not close to the bottom of him yet IMO...I agree the other horse is talented (especially for his pedigree) and has a bright future, but the best horse won yesterday...

Green and havent reached the bottom yet. Isnt that a term used to relate to all the top 2yr olds. If you think about it he is running against other 2yr olds. Comparing 2yr olds by saying they are just learning to race is kinda like describing a 2yr old, most any 2yr old.

Yes, 5/2 was a nice gift yesterday on him. Not sure how he will perform the Juve but he will be a nice horse. The two year old males are loaded this year. In fact, I would venture to say that we havent even seen the Derby winner race yet.

Originally Posted by jpops757

Green and havent reached the bottom yet. Isnt that a term used to relate to all the top 2yr olds. If you think about it he is running against other 2yr olds. Comparing 2yr olds by saying they are just learning to race is kinda like describing a 2yr old, most any 2yr old.

There is a difference....i.e.: Watch Asmussen's and Werner's babies....they are so successful because they are more experienced and ready than other juveniles....there is a HUGE difference in what you are talking about and what I'm talking about....of course most will improve on the natural developemnet and physical maturity, but some are far faster than others mentally learning the game.....Scat Daddy has both the physical and mental upside to really improve into a much better horse....

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

...because that was absolutely stealing to get 5-2 on Scat Daddy. How could the public bet a maiden winner by Albert the Great to 8-5 favoritism over him? Somedays its just that easy....

Lukas' horse had no excuse after walking on an easy lead...I'm sure they'll still run him in the Breeders' Cup knowing that outfit, but he'll only set the pace to the far turn....he's a sprinter...Nobiz is nice and has a future...he just got beat by the best 2-year-old in the country yesterday...

BTW, Scat Daddy got a 93 Beyer Speed Figure for that performance, which was still not close to his best run IMO....never really laid it down in the stretch and was still showing immense greeness...I believe he'll even run better around two-turns in Louisville....

Couldn't agree more, Scat Daddy was my single in the national pick 4, which I ended up cashing, so I have no complaints for the day. No Biz is a good animal, but a 2 yr old maiden winner from Albert does not inspire much confidence from me...ESPECIALLY at 8-5. I actually liken it to the Belmont in 2003 when Empire Maker was a straight 2-1. Easiest money I ever made right there...

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Couldn't agree more, Scat Daddy was my single in the national pick 4, which I ended up cashing, so I have no complaints for the day. No Biz is a good animal, but a 2 yr old maiden winner from Albert does not inspire much confidence from me...ESPECIALLY at 8-5. I actually liken it to the Belmont in 2003 when Empire Maker was a straight 2-1. Easiest money I ever made right there...

Yeah, I remmeber that...funny stuff because I thought the same thing at the time just like a thought yesterday.....sometimes you just know the public is on the wrong horses and it can't make you smile and wider

Hell, for a minute I thought we migt get 3-1 on him (although I knew the late money would push him down)...that would have been the overlay of the year for me...

[tanner12oz]

5-2 was very generous.......what do you project his BCJ odds to be?? ill go 6-5

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

5-2 was very generous.......what do you project his BCJ odds to be?? ill go 6-5

If Scat Daddy goes off at 6-5.....I'll make a mint on Circular Quay.

Originally Posted by miraja2

If Scat Daddy goes off at 6-5.....I'll make a mint on Circular Quay.

Circular Quay will take more money because he is a graded stakes winner at CD and he won the head-to-head against 'Scat'....Scat Daddy will be the second choice at around 3-1 if I had to guess on the information I currently have....depends on the number of entrants really....

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Yeah, I remmeber that...funny stuff because I thought the same thing at the time just like a thought yesterday.....sometimes you just know the public is on the wrong horses and it can't make you smile and wider

Hell, for a minute I thought we migt get 3-1 on him (although I knew the late money would push him down)...that would have been the overlay of the year for me...

Sometimes, especially in NY, there is just such a tidal wave of sentiment for certain horses, and No Biz was the talk of all the wiseguys yesterday and the last few weeks. Not to knock him or Tagg, but I am not a buyer on this horse yet. Especially at a low price. Also reminds me of all the times Funny Cide or Evening Attire get hammered down in NY and the true runners have a bloated price...like taking candy from a baby, hence why I love this game.

I remember with about a minute or two to post on the 03 Belmont I was just doing jumping jacks calling in my bet for Empire Maker...

[ateamstupid]

Does someone mind telling me what exactly was so green about Scat Daddy? From what I saw, Nobiz was the green one, looking at the grandstand for the final 1/8th of a mile. If you watch Cornelio, he's doing everything he can to get Nobiz to straighten out.. He threw the right rein at him and was pretty much leaning off the horse to the right side, while Scat Daddy seemed to be running in much more of a line.

I agree that Nobiz was an underlay, but if the odds are reversed at CD, I'd be inclined to take him over Scat Daddy, although I'm not wild about either for the BCJ win off the 3-week turnaround..

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Does someone mind telling me what exactly was so green about Scat Daddy? From what I saw, Nobiz was the green one, looking at the grandstand for the final 1/8th of a mile. If you watch Cornelio, he's doing everything he can to get Nobiz to straighten out.. He threw the right rein at him and was pretty much leaning off the horse to the right side, while Scat Daddy seemed to be running in much more of a line.

I agree that Nobiz was an underlay, but if the odds are reversed at CD, I'd be inclined to take him over Scat Daddy, although I'm not wild about either for the BCJ win off the 3-week turnaround..

Scat Daddy was all over the place when he amde the lead...he basically pulled himself up....go back and watch the replay...when he goes by NLS he ****s his head and starts goofing off....his ears started flicking around and he was jumping in and out between 2 or 3 paths....he was hardly running straight when he made the lead.....he was NOTICABLY green to me the last sixteenth of a mile....

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Sometimes, especially in NY, there is just such a tidal wave of sentiment for certain horses, and No Biz was the talk of all the wiseguys yesterday and the last few weeks. Not to knock him or Tagg, but I am not a buyer on this horse yet. Especially at a low price. Also reminds me of all the times Funny Cide or Evening Attire get hammered down in NY and the true runners have a bloated price...like taking candy from a baby, hence why I love this game.

I remember with about a minute or two to post on the 03 Belmont I was just doing jumping jacks calling in my bet for Empire Maker...

You're exactly right....I capitalized on all three of those false favorites too....good stuff....

[jpops757]

One thing I have learmed In my short 65 years, is dont get too excited about picking a 5/2 winner and dont get down on you capping with a 20/1 "only hits the board". I was in the very dumb catagory. My choice was Im a Numbers Man. I felt if this horse was within 3-4 lengths comming out of the turn he would blow by them.What a mistake it was interpreting his last win with a growing margin as a great finish and not able to see that it was the compitition a folding. With my experience I will not beat myself up but picking a 5/2 winner will not make me a wizard.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by jpops757

One thing I have learmed In my short 65 years, is dont get too excited about picking a 5/2 winner and dont get down on you capping with a 20/1 "only hits the board". I was in the very dumb catagory. My choice was Im a Numbers Man. I felt if this horse was within 3-4 lengths comming out of the turn he would blow by them.What a mistake it was interpreting his last win with a growing margin as a great finish and not able to see that it was the compitition a folding. With my experience I will not beat myself up but picking a 5/2 winner will not make me a wizard.

He did better than my pick...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I think being able to isolate any horse (as the winner of a race) is the important thing.

1)Hardest thing to do, is to overcome the infatuation with getting a big price on the win end.This is especially true in these stakes races that Pletcher is entered in.It is also especially true on the West Coast with many of the spots Mullins(and many times O'neil) has his horses in.You're at a huge disadvantage when you try to beat these people on the win end.You need to just admit that some people's horses aren't gunna get tired (no matter the trip, or your cap strategies.) Hard to beat horses when you run up alongside them,and they then proceed to run to the wire as if the race just started.You can't compete with the level of energy that some trainers are able to fill their horses with(as a wagerer, it really is not incredibly important to know how they get that energy into a horse,but it is important to avoid a fight you can't win.)

2)The 2nd hardest thing to do is to stop betting short or moderately -priced horses to win.I think this is the #1 thing people do wrong when they gamble on horses(bet heavy to win on horses of moderate or low price.)In a game where the combatants often get bad trips,bleed(or palate displaced )or disqualified,the last thing you want to do is wager a lot of money that one particular horse will accomplish something you want done. The natural human tendency is to bet a lot of money that one horse can do what you want it to do.To a lesser degree,I did this for quite a few years.I saw friends betting $300-$500 to win/place on one of the top 3 or 4 favorites in a race.Win betting is attractive to people because it does give you the best chance to cash a ticket(avoid losing.)The thing people are often in denial about is that you must not lose,or you will be very far in the hole(because it takes a large amount to make a large amount.)Because it takes so much cash to make money win betting( on low or moderately priced horses,)what do people do when they lose by win betting low priced horses? They need to then start making that money back.They have less money to now do that with.They don't look at races objectively(they start trying to hunt down price horses.)These horses I spoke of above(trained by the Pletchers,and Mullins of the world) often have to have something go very wrong for them to fail to win.So,your probably going to have win bets on horses that are running for 2nd or 3rd money.So,I actually think win betting is the crack cocaine of the horse wagering options.A lot of short burst pleasure that involves a high degree of risk of getting deep in the hole.What seems by most to be the most conservative bet in racing,is actually the bet that gets many people in deep financial holes.Again,the reason for that, is you're usually going to be betting quite a bit of money(if you want to make a decent amount,)and if you fail a few times,you'll be behind very quickly. Of course,the other alternative is to bet a smaller amount on price horses.The problem with this is that these supertrainers often have their foot on your neck,and you have no shot at bringing in a price(but regardless you wildly fish.)So,my suggestion is to avoid betting one horse to do something.Bet on atleast 2 things to happen.This requires less money,and allows you to be more objective in deciding who is going to win a race.Don't get caught up in "having to make money" on a 5/2 shot.Use it in the 1 hole of some less cash-demanding wager.I say all this.. if you don't have 1st hand information from a barn.Obviously that would make win betting on low priced horses a little better option.I would still avoid win betting low priced horses with large sums of money (because of the disqualifications,bleeding,displaced palates,bad trips etc.)