Derby Wars Deep Dive

[Easy Goer Otis]

After a disastrous attempt at the BCBC where I left out Green Mask at the bottom of my Mongolian Saturday trifecta by mistake, I decided to devote the month of November to playing Derby Wars to make my money back. After the smoke cleared, I wound up 3rd in wins (139) and 12th on the money list ($10,647). I rarely entered at contest for more than $29. Had one big $2,000 hit, but the rest of the prize money was earned $35 to $175 at a time.

It was fun, intense, and much more profitable than betting at the window. Here are some things I learned along the way:

1) From my perspective the game is 50% handicapping, 25% game theory, 15% visual (watching the horses in paddock and post), and 10% luck.

2) Find a time and place where you can be undisturbed for the entire game. Turn off your phone. You need to devote every moment to the contest to do well. And I find it very difficult to wager and play at the same time, so i don't.

3) Play multiple games at once. I usually am playing 3-5 at one time. Every type of game has its own flow. People swing for long shots in the winner take all games and they are more conservative in head-to-head games. Once you figure this out and you have done the necessary handicapping, you pretty much know the horses that will be played in each game. You just need to zig when everybody is zagging. Playing multiple tickets gives you a greater ability to do so and still recover if you miss.

4) Listen to the on-track commentators between races. Some are better than others, but most simo hosts take pride in their selections and know everybody at the track. In any regard, you will glean at least 2-3 bits of info that might give you and advantage over your competitors if they are not watching. Every advantage is critical. If you REALLY want to get a jump on things, most simo hosts post their picks on the track website, so you can know who they are going to spotlight before the card even kicks off.

5) After each race, immediately assess your situation in each game. Do I want to play chalky or swing? Separate the field into those two categories. Watch the tote board for any odds surprises, listen to the analysts, check the will pays on the multiples, watch the post parade. Identify your key horses. Then go back and put in your final selections. You need to move quickly after the post. NOTE: if you are trying to handicap each race in between, you are in trouble. That work should be done before the contest.

6) Most of the big guys on DW are using HTR, which is a state of the art handicapping tool. I find it very useful in these contests, because it helps me identify what their likely plays will be. Then I use other sites to find the non-obvious picks. Mainly TFUS and Betmix. Find the horses that no one is tipping. Those are the 8-1 ML horses that drift up to 20-1 and wind up being the difference in a game.

7) Head-to-Head games are simple and boring. There are guys that do very well just picking favorites. Waiting for the other guy to blink. I find this monotonous. However, it is nice to have a couple HtH games going as a saver in case the card chalks out.

8) In the big money games, you will need at least one cap horse ($32 win, $18 place). Winning scores are usually $10 per race. So $120 for a 12 race card. Playing multiple tickets within these games is a key tactic, so that you can swing big early and often.I find that 2 tickets are actually better than 3, because otherwise I wind up splitting too much. There are several opportunities during the week to qualify for these tourneys.

Not sure how much I will play this month. Probably not as much. I'm heading to New Orleans to check the Fairgrounds in a couple weeks and DW doesn't use that track, which is a pity. The more turf races the better. That's where the longshots live!

Cheers,

Otis

[LoneStarHorse]

Otis

Great insight, thank you very much... Like you I totally crapped out at the BCBC in fact I went 0 for the contest... Was never more humiliated in my life...

I haven't played on Derby Wars in a while, been buying into the Twin Spires contests...

Once again thank you for a very well written thread....


Good Racing to you

LoneStarHorse

[Easy Goer Otis]

Thanks Lone Star! DW was definitely the perfect salve for my BCBC wounds.

Keep cashing tickets!

O

[saratogadew]

Thanks EGO. I play on Horse Tourneys. Some very useful tips.

[tbevans]

This is really well done. What do you think your ROI was for the month? One sees some big numbers on the top of the money list, but of course can't quite tell how much was invested.

Agree completely about the need for a distraction free environment. That's a challenge at my house on the weekends!

TBE

[Easy Goer Otis]

Thanks dew and tbevans!

As far as ROI, I started off really well, then had a period where I payed too many cards, then honed back in. Seeded the account with $500 and it's now at around $3k.

As an example, today I played 12 games:

1) 25k qualifier lockdown PRX (Lost $33) Score $0.00
2) $300 game PRX1-7 - (Lost $21) Score $3.60
3) $100 game PRX 1-7 (Lost $9) Score $3.60
4) $600 game PRX 1-7 (Lost $24) Score $13.00
(side note - I had trouble figuring out winners in the slop at PRX until later in the card)

5) Double your Money PRX1-7 (Won $35, net $18) Score $26.60
6) Double your Money PRX4-9 (Won $35, net $18) Score $15.00
7) $500 game PRX 4-9 (Won $100, net $66) Score $71.60* and $12.60
8) $40 HtH PRX 4-9 Lockdown(Won $40, net $18) Score $26.00
9) $175 WTA -HAW Lockdown (Won $175, net $146) Score $34.00
10) $100 Game HAW3-8 (Lost $9) Score $5.60
11) $300 Game HAW3-8 (Won $100, net $79) Score $26.30
12) Double your Money HAW3-8 (Won $35, net $18) Score $20.70

*Note: the key horse here was a 7/2 ML that drifted to 10-1 and won. TFUS had him as top pick and he looked good in the post parade. But no one else took him. One overlooked horse like this can win you a contest. Never hesitate to pull the trigger if you sense one in the mix. In this game, I played two cards so I could more freely try some picks that were against the flow.

Summary for 12/2:
Entry fees = $254
Prize money = $515
Profit = $261

Cheers!

Otis