Rebel Thoughts

[jnunan4759]

I watch races and PP's and observe. Not all of what I see puts money in my pocket.

Thoughts on the Rebel.

Rebel Stakes Handicap Race 10 March 19th, 2016


12 – Suddenbreakingnews. Ordinarily this wide post would be an automatic bet-against, but this horse has run out of wide posts in good races and won before. He's not a great starter and often leaves much work to do, but his pedigree of Mineshaft over an Afleet Alex mare suggests he will get better with age and distance. Trip is always a consideration out here, but his history of running well wherever placed is encouraging. ML is 3-1 and would want that to go a bit higher for a strong bet.


2X – Gray Sky. Off the radar for many, this Lukas trainee has done decently against some of the best in his class. The jockey is a big upgrade with Geroux on. This horse could get in exotics at a serious price.


4 – Cupid. This one doesn't have much experience and is just a MSW winner off 3 races. One of those was a loss to Denman's Call, who is a very nice horse. Baffert's record in this race is freaky and he brings in Martin Garcia so he's going to get bet, possibly overbet. From everything I've heard, he likes this horse, but also realizes he's behind the curve for the TC races. I'm kind of thinking Baffert likes this horse and is giving him a chance vs. better competition. I think he could come in the exotics, but at a overbet price.


3 – Disreetness. This might be the best play. Last was 7 or 8 wide around both turns and he has some speed to run in mid-pack from this (better) post. Should be a solid contender here and may not hold up to 12/1 odds. Very playable anywhere in all bets.


6-Sliding Spring. Many people like this, but I don't. This horse just seems to hang to me and this up in competition will just make it worse. I'm just seeing the farther he goes, the worse he gets. Pass for me.


7- Spikes Shirl. This horse is very overmatched, but I wouldn't complain if you put him under in tri's and super's. Speed figures are slow for this group and his only stakes try was a big disaster. He has gotten better going longer and Speightstown is not an exclusively sprint sire. The mare is a Perfect Soul mare and brings distance to this one. Improving, but this is a big step. Real outsider and I'd demand a good price for any plays.


3 – Ralis. Loved this horse last year, not so much since October. Off since BC Juvenile and this is a late start to the Crown. Mario comes to ride, but he is the Reddam/O'Neill go-to guy. His works are dull. Usually O'Neill works them honest, but this one looks dull. I'm out on this one and this late start does not tell me O'Neill thinks this is a Crown candidate. Also, don't hear O'Neill saying much about this one. Pass.


1 – Creator. This Asmussen horse took 6 races to break his maiden in last and has shown some nice Figs while running 4 seconds of 6 races. Asmussen works always show little, but this one is a decent pick under in exotics, but I would want much more than 6-1 to draw me in. 6-1 for a MSW winner in a Graded Stakes race is too short for me.


1A – Madtap. The 2nd Tapit for Asmussen and it also has to go to another level. Usable, but need more than 6-1 to make me excited. Get this entry up into the 12-1 to 14-1 range and they can be usable in exotics.


2 – Z Royal. No shot. He might have a shot if he dropped this into a $10,000 claimer, but not sure.


9- Cutacorner. Always liked this horse. Can toss last and put him in exotics. Maybe a cut below a win candidate, but tries hard. 30-1 is a good price for exotics. Better than last, but maybe a cut below some of these, but above some others. Jack VB has always liked him and you know Jack is always going to get him right to run well. Good on gameness but may be short on quality. Usable.


10- Whitmore. This is a horse with impressive lines and will be bet. However, I think he might be distance-challenged as he goes against better. The breeding is all sprintish and both his wins were at 3/4ths.I was just thinking, if this was a big-time Derby horse, you couldn't pry Mike Smith off his back. However, today he stays home. Irad gets on and I think he'll do well, but at a too short price. I don't think this is your KY Derby winner.


8 – American Dubai. This is a very solid and honest horse. However, E Dubai horses are best at 6F to a mile. He's game, but as the quality goes up, it will be more difficult for him. This is a nice horse, not necessarily a Derby horse. He's a good bet in exotics under, because he is so honest and will probably float upwards of the 12-1 ML. He could be the pace and go quite a while. Probably get swallowed at the end, but will keep trying.


11- Cherry Wine. I don't see any shot here. 5 races to break MSW. 3 of 6 races on Turf. Has only beaten average horses. Last 2 look good, but I'm not sold.


PICKS 12-2-4-3 For possible win, but others under.

But, some good plays on exotics. I could easily see putting $100 into this race and playing some exactas, trifectas and supers. I think you have a chance to take some money out. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the horses are not as separated as the odds will be. I think you'll have 3-2 horses and 12-1 horses that are pretty close. Trainers, jockeys and owners can skew races. Remember, horses win races. No owner, trainer or jockey has ever won a race, the horse does.

[fantini33]

Nice write up. I cant get away from Ralis.....as much as I am trying. I am a sucker for horses that have back races and end up in quizzical spots based on current form. As the Boss likes to say..."Don't think they're shipping here on a lark."

Please talk me off....anyone.

[fantini33]

I mean that Hopeful was impressive. I seem to remember the chatter about him coming into that race....light on figs....only a maiden win on resume. I believe the only other time O'Neill shipped to Saratoga with a 2 year old was with I'll Have Another. Big sign of confidence that he would proceed similarly with Ralis. Then came the slop (Excuse) Then went wrong in the BC (Excuse)

Why here? Go to jock to boot. Have to think this one runs today. Any improvement from 2 to 3 and it may be go time.

Am I crazy?

[casp0555]

I dunno Ed..O'Neill says he decided to ship based on Ralis' last workout. I have a similar feeling in my gut about this horse. They gave him 2 months off and I have a sneaking suspicion that this one has been pointed at the Rebel since December. g'luck today

[fantini33]

I have to play him. If he loses I can live with it.....If he wins and I'm not on board that will be tough. I suspect we will be looking at a $40 horse come PT.

Best of luck today man!

[fantini33]

Check out the workouts for Ralis heading into the Hopeful.....less than blah.