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#1
08-27-2016, 05:50 AM
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8/27: Saratoga ~ Day 32 (147th Travers Day)
Travers Day 2016 shapes up as a Breeders' Cup style card with a P5 sequence featuring fields of 10-11-8-12-10 and a guaranteed stakes P4 with 13-12-7-13. Approach the slate's multis the way you do Breeders Cup, utilizing minimum denominations, strong opinion singles coupled with spreading tactics. Weather is going to be perfect. Main track and turf courses perfect as well. One good pop should make your Travers Day. Let's get lucky and have them travel safely and come home well..
SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Reckling 4-1: Yet another 2nd timer from Asmussen.. WON ($7.30) Next Best: #4 Your Secret's Safe 7-2: Klaravich/C. Brown Tapizar primed.. 4th Best Value: #9 Capitaine 20-1: Hennig colt has prepped brilliantly.. 5th Exotics Use: #5 Kid Perfect 20-1 9th 2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD) A group so tough to separate that it makes P5/P4 ticket-building particularly difficult.. Best Value: #3 Patterson Cross 15-1 WON ($13.40) Next Best: #1 Three Perfections 12-1 4th Exotics Use: #8 Sport 3-1 8th Super Add: #5 Admiral Blue 12-1 10th 3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Threefiveindia 4-1 WON ($6.60) Best Value: #1a Cerro 6-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Annual Report 9-2 6th Exotics Use: #6 Its All Relevant 6-1 4th 4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Last Waltz 3-1 6th Best Value: #8 Stella Rose 5-1 WON ($6.50) Next Best: #10 Mighty Souper 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #12 Summersault 20-1 8th 5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD) Best Value: #10 Mission Driven 8-1: Lack of pace a plus from outside.. 5th Next Best: #3 Manitoulin 6-1: Showing steady development.. 4th Exotics Use: #6 Deeply Undervalued 5-2 2nd Super Add: #5 Revved Up 3-1 WON ($16.80) P5 Grid: 1: 3-4 (A), 5-9 (B), 2-10 (C) 2: 1-3-8 (A), – (B), 5-6-10-11 (C) 3: 1-8 (A), 3-6 (B), 4-7 (C) 4: 3-8 (A), – (B), 5-9-10-12 (C) 5: 3-10 (A), – (B), 5-6-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x2x2 = 192 x .50 = $96 All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 $0.50 Pick-5 (3,7,12,13,14,15/3/8/2,4,8,9,13/5) Paid $1,362.25 (A-A-A-A-C/$260) P4 Grid: 2: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), 5-6-10-11 (C) 3: 1-8 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 2-7 (C) 4: 3-8 (A), - (B), 5-9-10-12 (C) 5: 3-6-10 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50) $0.50 Pick-4 (3/8/2,4,8,9,13/5) Paid $381.25 6th: Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD) No particularly strong opinion here. Dallas Stewart has been excellent handling Forever Unbridled and as 3rd choice she provides a nice value. Rosario can't leave her with too much to do though as these 9f affairs have been going to pace players on a regular basis.. Best Value: #3 Forever Unbridled 7-2 3rd Next Best: #2 Curalina 9-5 2nd Exotics Use: #1 I'm a Chatterbox 4-1 4th 7th: Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD) Don't have a great feel for this group and happy it's not in the big G1 P4.. Most Likely: #3 Paulassilverlining 4-1 5th Best Value: #7 Spelling Again 12-1 7th Next Best: #9 Carina Mia 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Wavell Avenue 3-1 6th Super Add: #2 By the Moon 6-1 2nd 8th: King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD) Always entertaining. I'll use Star Hill on plays for sanity insurance.. Most Likely: #13 Drefong 4-1 WON ($8.80) Best Value: #5 Bird Song 30-1 8th Next Best: #3 Summer Revolution 6-1 4th Exotics Use: #2 Fish Trappe Road 8-1 6th Super Add: #1 Economic Model 6-1 2nd 9th: Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD) Going to take view that near-miss types Ready for Rye or Marking get their big win today in somewhat shapeless running of this standard.. Best Value: #9 Ready for Rye 10-1 10th Next Best: #11 A.P. Indian 5-2 WON ($4.20) Exotics Use: #3 Limousine Liberal 15-1 7th Super Add: #8 Stallwalkin' Dude 8-1 3rd 10th: Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD) Flintshire overwhelmingly likely, but barnmate Money Multiplier poised for challenge in event of a miscue.. Most Likely: #6 Flintshire 1-5 WON ($2.40) Next Best: #2 Money Multiplier 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Grand Tito 8-1 4th Super Add: #3 Roman Approval 20-1 6th 11th: Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD) Trying to build a play in this jumbled sophomore assortment? How about mixing Baffert, Pletcher, Brown and Asmussen with the division leader? Think this is a rare event where you want every style of horse that succeeds should the race unfold into their wheelhouse. American Freedom in the first flight, Connect and Destin stalking, Exaggerator from midpack and Creator seeking a collapse. Pick and choose your preferred set and enjoy.. Most Likely: #2 American Freedom 6-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Destin 10-1 9th Next Best: #10 Connect 4-1 6th Exotics Use: #12 Creator 15-1 7th Super Add: #7 Exaggerator 3-1 11th P4 Grid: 8: 3-5-13 (A), 1-2-7 (B), 4-6-12 (C) 9: 9-11 (A), 3-8 (B), 1-2 (C) 10: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C) 11: 2-8-10 (A), 1-7-12 (B), 4-9-13-14 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x4x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x2x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50) $0.50 Pick-4 (9,13/5,11,12/6/1) Paid $103.75 12th: Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD) Great coda to the day to have Lady Eli return. Won't lose unless something strange happens.. Most Likely: #3 Lady Eli 1-1 2nd Best Value: #2 Excilly 20-1 6th Next Best: #8 Miss Temple City 2-1 5th Exotics Use: #5 Sentiero Italia 9-2 3rd 13th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT Most Likely: #11 Kerjillion 8-5 3rd Best Value: #1 Lotta Gold 20-1 5th Next Best: #7 I Win 8-1 11th Exotics Use: #6 The J Y 20-1 7th P4 Grid: 10: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1 (C) 11: 2-8-10-12 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), 3-5-13-14 (C) 12: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C) 13: 11 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-6-9-10-12 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x8x1x3 = $48 ($24 for .50) All A's: 2x4x1x1 = $8 ($40 for $5) Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 08-27-2016 at 07:40 PM. 
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#4
08-27-2016, 12:31 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
08-27-2016, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
08-27-2016, 10:20 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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