9/17: Belmont Park (7th-10th); Churchill Downs (7th-11th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nicely matched NYB turfers with honest pace seemingly assured..

Most Likely: #3 Mr Harlan 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Prophet's Cat 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Lead by Example 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 The J Y 15-1 WON ($19.40)


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Terrific set of hard-htting state breds with more than half turning back from routes. Jet Black gets back to one turn at oval where he rolled through Spring..

Most Likely: #2 Jet Black 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 West Hills Giant 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Beyond the Green 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Get Jets 5-2 5th


9th: 22nd Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (DD)

Don't see how you easily eliminate any of these 7. You can rate the Lake Placid (Diamond Fields, Elysea's World) ahead of the Boiling Springs (Galileo's Song, Tin Type Gal), though Tin Type ran sneaky well from impossible post in the G1 DMR Oaks. On Leave and Al Jazi are fresh faces and Noble Beauty is hard to toss on connections (Brown, Castellano) alone. Pace points to On Leave potentially cruising up front. Diamond Fields and Al Jazi likely chase..

Most Likely: #5 On Leave 5-2 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #6 Elysea''s World 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Tin Type Gal 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Diamond Fields 4-1 2nd


10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #5 Leaveematthegate 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Light the Vow 10-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Bushmill Giant 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Paddy's Crown 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

7: 1-3 (A), 4-8 (B), 6-7 (C)
8: 2-8 (A), 9-10 (B), 6 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 2-4 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), - (B), 4-6-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Dream Seeker 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Curlino 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Done Deal 9-2 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #9 Handy Candy 15-1 9th


8th: 35th Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lookin At Lee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Not This Time 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #2 Honor Thy Father 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Blame Will 4-1 7th


9th: 8th Open Mind, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Spelling Again 2-1 5th
Next Best: #9 I'm a Looker 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Fioretti 8-1 WON ($30.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Kathballu 5-1 7th


10th: 48th Pocahontas (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ever So Clever 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Bling On the Music 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Jet Away Sue 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Dream Dancing 5-2 4th


11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Farrell 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Lovely Bernadette 9-2 WON ($12.20)
Best Value: #6 Champagne Problems 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 No More Babies 15-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Racey Reecey 5-1 7th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), 12 (B), 2-3-9-10-11 (C)
8: 1-8 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 1-8 (A), 2-4 (B), 9-10 (C)
11: 3 (A), 4-6 (B), 7-10-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)


P4 Grid:

8: 1-8 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 1-8 (A), 2-4 (B), 9-10 (C)
11: 3-4-6 (A), 7-10 (B), 12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

CD SCR/CHG'S