7/7: Belmont (6th-11th); Arlington (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 101st Dwyer (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

New York soph standard draws 15% of the Derby field among 7 runners with Noble Indy & Firenze Fire getting back to what they like to do best. Mendelssohn merits respect, but who says a one turn mile is his thing? And isn't this a step towards bigger goals? Rugbyman looks to take next logical step. Seven Trumpets last was very good. Fixedincome Larry need only improve a couple more lengths to get a slice of the super or even the tri. Fun, intriguing version of this race which started as the Brooklyn Derby and now honors the Dwyer Brothers who fashioned one of the great 19th century stables with horses like Hindoo, Tremont, Kingston and Hanover..

Best Value: #4 Noble Indy 7-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Mendelssohn 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Rugbyman 2-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Fixedincome Larry 20-1 6th


7th: 11th Belmont Sprint (G2), 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Six pack field is separated by 2 lengths or so on paper making this a tricky proposition. There isn't open-mouthed, run off speed signed on offering one of the front-end types (Lulu, Shaft, Lewisfield) a chance to shake loose. Limousine Liberal looks for the same effort he turned in at Churchill 2 back..

Best Value: #5 Lewisfield 15-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Limousine Liberal 9-5 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Favorable Outcome 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Eye Luv Lulu 8-1 3rd


8th: 40th Belmont Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Nice mix of gals assembled from across the US and UK. Tractable Toinette and pace dominant Significant Form are 2 I'm looking for to get through the multis. Capla Temptress, Thewayiam, Fatale Bere & Mighty Scarlett offer exotics price boost potential..

Most Likely: #5 Toinette 5-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Significant Form 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Thewayiam 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Fatale Bere 20-1 6th


9th: 132nd Suburban (G2), 4+, 10f (P3, DD)

10 days ago, there was a question of whether this race would be embarrassingly weak. Instead, it's crazily competitive and compelling. Diversify will pace set with Dr. Dorr chasing and it feels like those in the stalker/closer mode will have every opportunity to corral them..

Best Value: #8 Hoppertunity 9-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Tapwrit 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 War Story 5-1 10th
Super Add: #7 Take Your Guns 8-1 7th


10th: 69th Belmont Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f-IT (DD)

Euros involved here make the boys event a more difficult read. Certainly Analyze It remains the horse to beat despite odd stretch miscue in the Pennine Ridge when Catholic Boy rallied to beat him. As I mentioned during the Stats Race Lens webinar, I wish had a better feel for this..

Most Likely: #3 Analyze It 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Hunting Horn 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Catholic Boy 4-1 WON ($12.20)
Super Add: #5 Maraud 12-1 6th


P5 Grid:

6: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-2-5-7 (C)
7: 1-5-6 (A), 2-3-4 (B), - (C)
8: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-8-9-10 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)
10: 3 (A), 4 (B), 5-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 1-5-6 (A), 2-3-4 (B), - (C)
8: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-8-9-10 (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 2-5-7 (B), (C)
10: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), 5-6-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


11th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-T

Best Value: #4 Ghost Giant 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Dream Passage 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #12 Dove Shoot 4-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Wild William 10-1 3rd



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 104th American Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f-T ()

Secretariat prep has very little pace. Ezmosh is just OK and not a horse I want at 5-2, but he does figure to be controlling speed. Captivating Moon is 8-5 and won't get much of a set up. Rooting for highly capable Michelle Lovell who has turned $30k claim Dubby Dubbie into a real racehorse..

Best Value: #4 Dubby Dubbie 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Tap Daddy 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Captivating Moon 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ezmosh 5-2 7th


6th: 62nd Modesty H. (G3), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Beverly D prep finds strong fave Daddy's Lil Darling heavily weighted and outposted. Might not matter..

Most Likely: #13 Daddy's Lil Darling 9-5 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #4 Celestial Insight 5-1 7th
Best Value: #11 Sully's Dream 12-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Exotics Use: #6 Hallie Belle 8-1 3rd


7th: 13th Hatoof, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Go Noni Go 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Madame Milan 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Cool Beans 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Rahway 20-1 10th


8th: 87th Stars and Stripes (G3), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Arklow 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Harlan Strong 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Canessar 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Nessy 9-2 5th


9th: 83rd Arlington H. (G3), 3+, 9.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #7 Western Elegance 30-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Synchrony 6-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Compass Zone 8-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Divisidero 2-1 WON ($7.00)


10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Cloche 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Avery A. 10-1 12th
Next Best: #10 Blessed Union 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Gwendalyn Sue 7-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Valy's Vengeance 10-1 6th


P5 Grid:

6: 13 (A), 4-11 (B), 6-9 (C)
7: 1-2-11 (A), - (B), 3-4-8 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 9 (B), 5 (C)
9: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), 8-11 (C)
10: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x3x2 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-11 (A), - (B), 3-4-8 (C)
8: 4-7 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)
9: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), 8-11 (C)
10: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[pb72vett]

Hi Steve I did not know if you or Gus were posting picks Great.Maybe if Baffert keeps Justify out of Travers i can come up this year.

[moses]

Thanks Steve. I also really like Lewisfield at 15-1. And Maraud at 12-1. The Belmont Derby is definitely a tough one. I’m not sure I’ll have a heavy bet there.

For the American Derby, I think Ezmosh takes it but I can understand wanting to bet against.

Some good races today. Good luck to everyone.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pb72vett

Hi Steve I did not know if you or Gus were posting picks Great.Maybe if Baffert keeps Justify out of Travers i can come up this year.

Peter..

You can show appreciation for Gus' work with his big day analysis products available at BRIS: https://www.brisnet.com/product/sele...-picks-reports

Justify started to show signs of fatigue catching up with him this past 7-10 days with some weight loss. With the insane heat in Los Angeles as well, Baffert has backed off him. Haskell nearly impossible to make and Travers questionable. If he moves forward again, I think it's more likely they go back to the original plan of the Awesome Again and BC Classic.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

AP SCR/CHG'S