3/23: Fair Grounds (STK P4); Aqueduct/Oaklawn (X-C P5)

Kasept · #1 03-23-2019, 05:42 AM

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

10th: New Orleans H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Well matched group that makes the P4 worth playing..

Most Likely: #10 Copper Bullet 4-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Core Beliefs 6-1 WON ($20.20)
Next Best: #6 Silver Dust 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Lone Sailor 9-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (11-6) $69.90
$1 Trifecta (11-6-2) $270.10

11th: Muniz Memorial (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

SCR Final Copy and First Premio as well as Bandua and Silver Dust (who both run in the New Orleans H.)..

Most Likely: #7 Bricks and Mortar WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #2 Divisidero 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Synchrony 3rd
Super Add: #8 Inspector Lynley 5th

12th: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Serengeti Empress a tigress when getting the lead, but there is the possibility she has to deal with pressure(s) today..

Most Likely: #2 Serengeti Empress 6-5 7th
Best Value: #6 Eres Tu 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Liora 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Slewgoodtobetrue 8-1 6th

13th: Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f

If War of Will were one dimensional, a need-the-lead speed or one run closer, you could make a case for being against him at a short price. But he has shown tactical ability that gives Gaffalione options for any scenario. Draws well and simply put, others have to improve significantly to beat him..

Most Likely: #6 War of Will 6-5 9th
Best Value: #11 Hog Creek Hustle 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Country House 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Roiland 12-1 6th

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6-8-9-10-11 (A), 3-4 (B), 5 (C)
11: 7 (A), 2-3 (B), 8 (C)
12: 2-6 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
13: 6 (A), - (B), 8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x3x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
Option of singling 7 in 11th: 6x1x4x1 = $24
All A's: 6x1x2x1 = 12 x $2 = $24

CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

OP 7th: Nodouble-AR, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Hoonani Road 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #3 Glacken's Ghost 6-1 8th
Best Value: #5 J. E.'s Handmedown 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Racer 6-1 7th

AQU 8th: Cicada, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Miss Imperial 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Gaucamole 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Stonesintheroad 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Forgotten Hero 8-1 6th

OP 8th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Soul P Say 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Top of the Page 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Futile 12-1 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #9 Curmit 15-1 6th

AQU 9th: NY-MCLM/$20k, F&M-4+, 6f

Most Likely: #10 Icy Maneuvers 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Peggy Sue 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Here Comes Helen 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Ramblin Ma'am 7-2 WON ($7.80)

OP 9th: Gazebo, 3yo, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Gray Attempt 8-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Hidden Ruler 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Nitrous 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Oncewewerebrothers 5-2 5th

P5 Grid:

7: 3-9 (A), 5-6 (B), 4-7 (C)
8: 8 (A), - (B), 2-3-6 (C)
9: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 8-10-11 (C)
10: 5-10 (A), 2-11 (B), 3-7 (C)
11: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve

moses · #2 03-23-2019, 07:51 AM

Thanks Steve and good luck.

From a betting perspective, it makes sense to single WOW...but I just can’t move off Country House and feel like he’s sitting on a big race. So I’ll double my bet by including him and hopefully it pays off.