5/3: Churchill Downs (145th Oaks Day) ~ 1st/4th off the turf..

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 145TH OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Off Sixes 7th
Most Likely: #8 Luck of the Draw 5th
Next Best: #7 Gigging WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Coworker 6th


2nd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Weird group with some seasonal debuts mixed in with a few inconsistent types..

Best Value: #5 Upset Brewing 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Awestruck 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Alter Moon 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #6 Magical 6-1 6th


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

No less than 5 turnbacks signed on and notably, only one runner involved here that owns a win at seven-eighths (Golden Curl)..

Most Likely: #9 Golden Curl 3-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Irish Mischief 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Weabie 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Lady Kate SCR


4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #
Best Value: #
Next Best: #
Exotics Use: #
Super Add: #


5th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Mother Mother a bad favorite here with Queen of Beas, Break Even, Del Mar May & Lyrical Lady all more appealing. Bell's the One too. As a 2yo sprinting filly, Del Mar May was bested by only Bellafina and Brill. Likely 5th choice and well within striking distance of these..

Best Value: #6 Del Mar May 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Break Even 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Queen of Beas 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Bell's the One 15-1 2nd


6th: Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Jackpot Single 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Newspaperofrecord 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Concrete Rose 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #2 Cambier Parc 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Winter Sunset 10-1 3rd


7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 McKinzie 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #5 Bourbon Resolution 15-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Tom's d'Etat 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Seeking the Soul 5-2 3rd


8th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

2-day $2 P6 starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Secret Spice 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Blue Prize 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Divine Miss Grey 7-2 8th
Super Add: #1 She's a Julie 7-2 WON ($12.00)


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Knights Key 10-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Solid Wager 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #15 Soul Streitz 2-1 12th
Super Add: #12 Fuel the Bern 20-1 5th


10th: T/S Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

World of Trouble essentially gets same softer turf condition that saw he and Stormy Liberal freak in Breeder's Cup..

Most Likely: #6 World of Trouble 1-1 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #5 Chaos Theory 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Bound for Nowhere SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Angaston 15-1 5th


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Champagne Anyone 6-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Lady Apple 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Bellafina 2-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Chocolate Kisses 20-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Out for a Spin 15-1 11th


P5 Grid:

7: 1 (A), - (B), 2-5-8 (C)
8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-12 (A), 1-2-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-4-10 (A), 1-12 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-12 (A), 2-8-15 (B), - (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-4-10 (A), 1-12 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 3-10 (A), 1-2-4 (B), 7-8-12 (C)
SAT 11: 12 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-8 (C)
SAT 12: 5-8-16 (A), 7-14 (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x5 = $25
All A's: 2x1x3 = $6


Oaks/Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 3-10 (A), 1-2-4 (B), 7-8-12 (C)
SAT 12: 5-8-16 (A), 7-14 (B), 1-6-17-20 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5 = $25
All A's: 2x3 = $6


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Goodbye Earl 15-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Free Cover 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 High Regard 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #10 Cloud Charmer 12-1 5th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Brutally tough nightcap with promising pedigreed firsters and a hatfull of OK players with experience..

Most Likely: #8 Vomba 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Club Car 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Indomitable Spirit 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Chocolate Swirl 20-1 6th


P5 Grid:

9: 5-7 (A), 12-15 (B), 2-8 (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), 7-8-12 (C)
12: 5-11 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
13: 8-12 (A), - (B), 2-3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x1x5x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20


P4 Grid:

10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), 7-8-12 (C)
12: 5-11 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
13: 8-9-12 (A), 2-3-4 (B), 6-11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x5x2x3 = 30 x .50 = $15


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Unreal. After going to sleep feeling the forecast appeared hopeful, I awake to thunderstorms. Looks like they'll continue, with some heavy stuff around 7a.

The good news is that it should be over by late morning and Derby Day prospects have improved with some rain possible only later in the day. (After 4p). Turf will likely be yielding/good today, but track could get fast by early in the afternoon.

This place has the most volatile and unpredictable weather of anywhere I travel regularly.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Unreal. After going to sleep feeling the forecast appeared hopeful, I awake to thunderstorms. Looks like they'll continue, with some heavy stuff around 7a.

The good news is that it should be over by late morning and Derby Day prospects have improved with some rain possible only later in the day. (After 4p). Turf will likely be yielding/good today, but track could get fast by early in the afternoon.

This place has the most volatile and unpredictable weather of anywhere I travel regularly.

Wet Early / Dry Late today Dry Early / Wet Late tomorrow

[Kasept]

1st & 4th OFF THE TURF

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S


Program Changes
2019 CHURCHILL DOWNS SPRING MEET

April 27 - June 29

Friday, May 3, 2019



TRACK: SLOPPY

TURF: GOOD (RACES 6 AND 10)/OFF (RACES 1 AND 4)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST: Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then scattered showers between 11am and noon. High near 79. Northeast wind around 7 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Updated: 9:30 a.m.

RACE 1 - OFF TURF (moved to one mile on main track)

SCRATCH #2 Crupi's Pizza Dom

SCRATCH #6 A Man Called Boady

SCRATCH #10 Firewater Jake

RACE 2

SCRATCH #1 Annathela

RACE 3

SCRATCH #3 Lady Kate

RACE 4 - OFF TURF (moved to 1 1/16 on main track)

SCRATCH #1 Blankenbaker

Jockey Change #2 Atthepearlygates - Joel Rosario

SCRATCH #5 World Tax War (IRE)

SCRATCH #8 Cowboys Dream

SCRATCH #9 Valdolobo (IRE)

SCRATCH #12 Life Mission

Jockey Change #13 Stock Chain - Declan Cannon

SCRATCH AE #14 Parade Field

SCRATCH AE #15 Value Engineering

SCRATCH AE #16 Phantom Currency

SCRATCH MTO #18 Silverzar

RACE 5
No Changes


RACE 6

No Changes

RACE 7

SCRATCH #3 Prime Attraction

SCRATCH #7 Hawaakom

SCRATCH #9 Multiplier

RACE 8

SCRATCH #8 Golden Award

RACE 9

SCRATCH #1a Funny Duck

SCRATCH #2 Rugbyman

Jockey Change #3 Cummings - Flavien Prat

RACE 10

SCRATCH #1 Bound for Nowhere

SCRATCH #2 Mr. Crow

Jockey Change #8 Undrafted - Irad Ortiz Jr.

RACE 11

SCRATCH AE #15 Dunbar Road

SCRATCH AE #16 Point of Honor

RACE 12

No Changes

RACE 13

SCRATCH #7 Leesburg Lady

Jockey Change #12 Club Car - Corey Lanerie

SCRATCH #13 Barracuda