5/30: Churchill Downs (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Tabled 6-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Tiesto 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Buy Me Candy 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Strong Tide 30-1 5th


7th: Winning Colors (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Mia Mischief 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Princess Causeway 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Break Even 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Bell's the One 15-1 WON ($28.20)


8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Ashiham 8-5 4th
Best Value: #3 Mau Mau 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Aztec Empire 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 What a Country 10-1 WON ($36.80)


9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Hidden Facts 4-1 6th-DQ'd from 2nd
Best Value: #10 Whimsical Muse 10-1 WON ($52.00)
Next Best: #6 Bingwa 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Dixieincandyland 9-2 4th


10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fearless 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #10 Gun It 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Top Seed 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Twelfth Labour 20-1 8th


11th: Mint Julep (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Juliet Foxtrot 5-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Secret Message 8-1 WON ($53.40)
Best Value: #9 Varenka 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Beau Recall 4-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Nay Lady Nay 4-1 8th


P5 Grid:

7: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-9 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
9: 10-13 (A), 6 (B), 5-11 (C)
10: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
11: 1-2-7-9 (A), - (B), 3-6-11 (C)

All A's: 1x2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
C Backups: 24 (With 1-5: 1x2x2x3x4) + 16 (With 3-9: 1x2x2x2x4) + 18 (With 6: 1x2x2x3x3) = $58


P4 Grid:

8: 3-9 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
9: 10-13 (A), 6 (B), 5-11 (C)
10: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
11: 1-2-7-9 (A), - (B), 3-6-11 (C)

All A's: 2x2x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
C Backups: 24 (With 5-11: 2x2x3x4) + 16 (With 3-9: 2x2x2x4) + 18 (With 6: 2x2x3x3) = $58

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/10/7/7) Paid $4,756.10


Understanding the C Backup plays:

8: No C's
9: 5-11 (Play: AxCxAxA ~ 3-9/5-11/7-8-10/1-2-7-9) $24
10: 3-9 (Play: AxAxCxA ~ 3-9/10-13/3-9/1-2-7-9) $16
11: 3-6-11 (Play: AxAxAxC ~ 3-9/10-13/7-8-10/3-6-11) $18


Good luck!
Steve

[mm1019]

11th: Mint Julep (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Juliet Foxtrot 5-2
Next Best: #7 Secret Message 8-1
Best Value: #9 Varenka 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Beau Recall 4-1
Super/Hi-5: #6 Nay Lady Nay 4-1

If I can get anything close to 12-1 on Varenka in the Night cap I'll be Firing a Clip...

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by mm1019

If I can get anything close to 12-1 on Varenka in the Night cap I'll be Firing a Clip...

That’s the betting race of the day. Bombs away. I have 8 on my ticket and still don’t feel good. Looking at 11 at big odds. GL

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[Sethcarter]

Church hill
Race 1 pk3
7/all/1,4,5,6,10,12

20 win 7

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Church hill
Race 1 pk3
7/all/1,4,5,6,10,12

I’ll start a betting post

[jms62]

SWEET Pick 4 Steve

[atolunch]

BOOM BOOM BOOM goes the Dynamite!!!

What a day. Congrats and thanks as always!!

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

SWEET Pick 4 Steve

Shoulda paid 4 times what it paid. Great job .

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

SWEET Pick 4 Steve

THX Jim.. Got some to run today.

Originally Posted by atolunch

BOOM BOOM BOOM goes the Dynamite!!!

What a day. Congrats and thanks as always!!

Thanks Larry! Hope you did great..

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Shoulda paid 4 times what it paid. Great job .

THX Dan.. Hope you and many benefited.

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

Damn Nice! Excellent Steve

THX Unc! Fun afternoon.

Originally Posted by myke

Steve,

Thanks for your exceptional handicapping .

if you look up stupid in the dictionary you'll see a picture of me.....i only used the a's in race 8.....wonderful

Thanks Myke.. Sounds like you got something anyway. Thought Red Dog (What a Country) was key to the sequence. He races horses into shape so those efforts that looked ordinary were actually OK.

Originally Posted by Jackson

Great Handicapping, Steve.

THX Jax!

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

fantastic job rode ur coatails in both pk 4 an 5 thank you so much
you and mrs steve have hot dogs on me,,just give me day in advance as to when your going great handicapping

Tom.. Thank you. Thrilled to hear you came along!