7/30: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 7/30/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #4 SUGAR FIX 2ND #7 LITTLE RED FROG 3RD #6 TONAL VISION

#4 SUGAR FIX is far more accomplished on turf than any of her rivals in here and lures leading rider Jose Ortiz in her New York debut. Though she’s raced on lesser circuits she is meeting a very weak field for this level today and has the versatility to be involved from the outset. #7 LITTLE RED FROG hails from the red-hot Mike Maker barn and exits a competitive second going shorter. This barn excels with stretchouts, and there’s reason to believe this daughter of Munnings will be more effective going longer. #6 TONAL VISION is the morning line favorite and will offer no value at or around 3-1. She is kin to 3 turf winners, and progeny of Tonalist win their turf debuts at a 13% clip. Though the grass may prove greener, she is a bad bet today.


Race 2- 1st #9 SENRIMA 2ND #1 UNRELENTING FORCE 3RD #7 LORD CAMDEN

#9 SENRIMA takes the biggest class drop in racing for a barn that does well with maidens adding blinkers sprinting on the dirt ($22%, $2.19 ROI). This son of Include was overmatched last time out and wound up getting into serious traffic trouble around the turn. He now draws favorably and should be more involved early with the blinkers. #1 UNRELENTING FORCE is the horse to beat on paper given the race he ran against MSW foes last time out. He clearly improved off the claim by Ray Handal and has the speed to seize control of this race from the start. Inside speed did well on the main track yesterday. #7 LORD CAMDEN faced a weaker group of maiden sellers last time out and was hurt by some traffic at the top of the stretch. He finished with interest once clear and can be dangerous with a cleaner trip today for a barn overdue to get rolling.


Race 3- 1st #6 VIP NATION 2ND #7 ROSEBUD’S HOPE 3RD #2 FOXTAIL

#6 VIP NATION was hurt by a poor start last time out and wound up picking up the pieces late to round out the superfecta. She is quick enough to get command in this affair, or she can rate just off #7 ROSEBUD’S HOPE. Either way, this daughter of Paynter is spotted well class-wise and should be a square price. The aforementioned ‘Rosebud has been competitive against tougher and faced a legitimate graded stakes caliber foe last time out. The class drop is a tad disconcerting, especially from a barn that is just 3-32 at the Spa over the last 5 years ($0.64 ROI). Nonetheless, she is a win candidate in a race lacking a standout. #2 FOXTAIL goes 2nd off a layoff and has back form that would win this race handily. Whether you can trust Danny Gargan’s barn is a different issue, as he has struggled mightily since June. He is 32% with turf routers first off of claims over the last five years, though, which is a good thing ($2.64 ROI).

Race 4- 1st #5 ROUSEY 2ND #2 OUR LADY OF LORETO 3RD #4 KEFALIANI

There’s a reasonable chance of a pace battle and that works in the favor of #5 ROUSEY. That daughter of Violence changes surfaces after landing in a salty opening day turf sprint and should get a big pace to run at late in here. While the track profile has been tilted against closers, you’ll get a decent enough price here to try. #2 OUR LADY OF LORETO set an insanely fast pace last time out under the bug boy and came up wanting late. She has a plethora of early speed and is quick enough to get a comfortable lead here. Whether the rivals to her inside or outside want to run with her early will go a long way towards determining who will win this thing. #4 KEFALIANI hails from the barn of Charlton Baker, who is overdue to sneak a longshot winner across the wire. This gal has moved forward with each start and is another who’ll be in position to capitalize if there’s any pace help.

Race 5- 1ST #2 OPT 2ND #5 RINALDI 3RD #8 GRADED ON A CURVE

#2 OPT is as good a bet as you’ll find on this card. He was wide rallying into a slow pace last time out over a surface where the inside was a huge advantage. There’s enough pace in here to set up his late run and he stands to move forward second off a layoff. Save a the Aqueduct effort two back when poorly ridden, this son of Will Take Charge has never run poorly on turf and will be overlooked in the betting based on his connections. #5 RINALDI is the horse to beat given his pace edge on the other turfers, and the fact that he should be wound tighter second off the layoff. If the rival to his outside wants to show speed, this son of Posse can rate and pounce on him when ready. Trainer H. James Bond’s barn has heated up of late and does it’s best work in Saratoga. You have to wonder when things will turn around for Chad Brown, who has lost 20 straight at the Spa at the time of this writing. He has #8 GRADED ON A CURVE, a smashing winner last time off the bench who is now moving up in lass. He was beaten by the top pick last summer and will be a very short price relative to some horses in here who have done just as much running as he ever has.



Race 6- 1st #5 MORE MANGO 2ND #9 MALICEINTHEPALACE 3RD #7 CHECKSANDBALANCES

#5 MORE MANGO goes first off a claim by Mike Maker after battling from start to finish last time out against a tougher field of 40k sellers. This barn is 28% with maiden turf routers going first off of claims ($2.82 ROI) and this filly has the versatility to get involved early if the pace is tepid. #9 MALICEINTHEPALACE is a late runner who was stuck behind a slow pace against weaker at Delaware. That came after this daughter of Palace Malice was fractious pre-race and ran off. She has fared well in NY in the past and has clearly improved as a 3YO so there’s plenty to like. #7 CHECKSANDBALANCES had no real excuse last time out when she was just an average 5th as the 2-1 favorite. She should improve with that race behind her, and trainer Chad Brown is 39% with turf routers in maiden claimers making their 2nd career starts ($2.24 ROI).

Race 7- 1st #8 MISTER BOBBY 2ND #5 MY MAN FLINTSTONE 3RD #7 BIG BOY MO

#8 MISTER BOBBY towers over his rivals in this field as he drew favorably on the outside for a barn that has heated up of late. This son of Shanghai Bobby angled out and nearly ran down a loose pacesetter last time at Belmont and was making his first start off a 100+ day break that day. This is his time to break through. #5 MY MAN FLINTSTONEexits a good runner-up finish at Keeneland when he tracked a soft pace and moved well clear of the balance of the field. Trainer Kenny mcPeek is just 7% on the Saratoga main track with non-maidens over the last 5 years ($0.93 ROI) and this colt is a far less appealing wagering prospect than the top pick. #7 BIG BOY MO made a late move to snag the show dough behind Mister Bobby last time out. He has improved in each start as a 4YO and is sure to be overlooked in the wagering given the connections here.

Race 8- 1ST #3 SHORT POUR 2ND #8 BARREL OF DESTINY 3RD #1 PECATONICA

#3 SHORT POUR goes 2nd off a layoff and exits a good second place finish behind Fetching. This daughter of The Factor returns to the site of her most recent victory, which also came over this very course. Trainer Mark Hennig is 3 for his last 16 with turfers going 2nd off of 180+ day breaks ($3.21 ROI) and that adds to the appeal. #8 BARREL OF DESTINY likely won’t let the top pick too far away early and exits a game win against N1X foes downstate. This hard-knocking veteran is in a strong barn that has surged recently, as Mike Maker has 3 wins in the last 2 racing days. Look for her to be prominent throughout. #1 PECATONICA was a game winner last time out when she lunged at the line to catch the pacesetter. She improved second off the bench and is clearly a better horse at Saratoga. The presence of Joel Rosario is encouraging and she drew favorably to save ground and make one run.

Race 9- 1ST #4 AMUNDSON 2ND #6 FUNNY GUY 3RD #5 BANKIT

You won’t often find a horse with as big a pace advantage as #4 AMUNDSON has in this race. He can be as clear as jockey Jose Ortiz wants him to be as he moves back into state bred company following two solid open company tries at Belmont. Look for him to get control at once and take them as far as he can. #6 FUNNY GUY is the horse to beat given his class and the recent victory downstate. He doesn’t have to be at a huge disadvantage given that he’s shown some tactical speed in the past, and he has clearly improved for trainer John Terranova. If he can stay within striking distance of Amundson, he will win. #5 BANKIT is a one-run closer who made a big, wide move last time out when 3rd behind Funny Guy. The issue with this son of Central Banker is that he is a hanger who rarely wins, but his past exploits both against NY breds and open company make him formidable.

Race 10- 1st #2 EVERY MINUTE 2ND #3 BOOM BOOM KABOOM 3RD #10 FLUENT IN SARCASM

They’re giving up on #2 EVERY MINUTE early given that he did some running on debut after being purchased for 100k and is now in for 40k. He was away from the gate poorly then moved inside in upper stretch to pick off a few tired foes. That race has come back live, as the winner was 2nd at a price against winners in his next start, and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers went 1-2 in the Sunday opener. #3 BOOM BOOM KABOOM exits the same race as the top pick and is now in for a tag for the first time. He’s the most trustworthy entrant in here, and the addition of blinkers should help his chances. Whether he is capable of moving forward again is the real question. #10 FLUENT IN SARCASM is back at the right class level for a barn that is rolling of late. The outside post is ideal given he can stalk and pounce and we saw how the Mike Maker-trained Turbo Drive improved on Saturday when Irad Ortiz, Jr. hopped aboard.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 82-18-15-18 $124.70