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#3
04-29-2022, 05:52 PM
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#4
05-03-2022, 01:02 PM
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I'm going to add a few more thoughts about some horses here. This is really to help me find clarity but feel free to weigh in.
Epicenter Maybe it's my naturally contrarian nature but I am questioning this horse. When I watched his most recent wins in real time, I was impressed. But I look back at the Louisiana Derby now and wonder how good the competition was. Granted, he handled both Smile Happy and Zandon in the Risen Star but both of those horses may have needed a race as they were both coming off of layoffs. The Louisiana Derby top rivals were Zozos (out of Munnings/Papa's Forest) who doesn't seem particularly well bred for distance and Pioneer of Medina, who feels like Pletcher's clear 3rd best horse of this group. Epicenter just feels like a horse that you don't want to use at short odds. Smile Happy / Zandon I'm going to include these two together because I don't think there is that much that separates them and my thought process for both of them is the same. I feel they are both ready to run huge races. Obviously that's no surprise with Zandon but I'd be shocked if Smile Happy ends up near 20/1. I think his Blue Grass performance was way better than he's been given credit for. Taiba / Messier I technically have both of these horses in one of my futures "Field" bets. They're both super talented. I strongly prefer Messier to Taiba and will probably toss Taiba from all of my wagers as there are just too many red flags for me. Messier is my top choice still. I don't see that changing. Simplification / White Abarrio / Charge it I may use all three of these horses in my exotic wagers. Maybe I'm a fool but the Florida Derby / Holy Bull winner is probably my least favorite of these three. I just feel like he got ideal setups in both of those races whereas Simplification had trouble at the start in the Holy Bull and learned in the Florida Derby that perhaps being on the lead isn't his best running style. Charge It, for what it's worth, looks to be a very talented horse and I'm banking on him putting things together and peaking at the right time. Mo Donegal He sort of goes hand-in-hand with the above three since he ran in the Holy Bull against two of them. There is some skepticism about the Wood Memorial runners but I really just think that Early Voting was a bit underrated for a while but I feel that race will hold together as time goes on. I don't really love the post position or Mo Donegal's running style but I'm going to use him underneath. And then I'll probably throw some other horses that intrigue me in -- Tawny Port, Crown Pride, maybe...gasp...Cyberknife. I should add, this is all in anticipation of making a trifecta bet, which is my preferred single race bet for the Derby. So it'll probably look something like: Messier, Zandon, Smile Happy keyed over Messier, Zandon, Smile Happy, Simplification, Charge It, Mo Donegal, Tawny Port, Cyberknife. Anyway, just my thoughts. If history is any indication, bet Epicenter and Taiba.
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#5
05-03-2022, 01:47 PM
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I can't wait to see the Cuban Sandwich bet.
I just started to dissect this. Classic causeway gate to wire!!!  . Epicenter is the horse to beat and no way I leave him out of tri. I see no faults in the horse. Charge It could be sitting on a nice one and is a quality win bet based on value. Messier is the other I think can win as those three should be sitting perfect off the front runners. Those three are my musts in tri box as I can't see none of them not in top three. I'm not sure what to think on Taiba but leaning towards a toss. Zandon and Mo Donegal both need to be closer than projected as there are quality horses that will be sitting better and will be hard to pass. I'm still looking for those derby tri fillers that come every year. Good luck.
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#6
05-03-2022, 02:17 PM
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But I also feel like he got an easy trip in the Risen Star with his main rivals not at their peak and then got another easy trip in the Louisiana Derby with his main rivals huge question marks as far as their overall abilities. His ability to rate was impressive and that race rightfully put him at the top of the Derby contender list...but I'm skeptical given the speed figures and my doubts about him getting another easy trip. Maybe I should be more skeptical of Zandon. I don't know. He could easily run into trouble and not finish well. Epicenter is probably more likely than Zandon to be able to work out a good trip for himself. There is still a lot of time. I may change my mind another 50 times before Saturday.
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#7
05-03-2022, 03:18 PM
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#8
05-04-2022, 10:38 AM
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In the race where he broke his maiden on 12/26, he stumbled slightly at the start, went 3 wide the whole race, made a move around the turn and held off a late surge from the runner up. No clue how good the 2nd place finisher is as he took a few months off and came back to finish 3rd in a 7f race at Keeneland in the slop and then 2nd in a 10f race at Churchill in the slop. BUT Cyberknife’s final time was .71 seconds slower than Epicenter in the Gun Runner that same day at Fair Grounds. Then if you look at his OC race on Risen Star day, he finished 8.5f in 1:42.53. That would have been good enough for 3rd place in the Mineshaft (on final time alone) and I think would have put him pretty close to Epicenter in the Risen Star. Granted, that’s not really a perfect way to look at it, but it does make me wonder if he’s been underrated for a while now. Those two races seem to stack up nicely against one of the Derby favorites. The Arkansas Derby he showed that he could continue to improve. He was close to a pretty fast pace and seemed to unnecessarily make an early move on the backstretch (it gave him position going into the stretch so maybe not unnecessary but probably not ideal) and was still able to stay clear in the stretch. He’s working very well. He’s not my top choice but he is definitely intriguing. Note his top races before the Arkansas Derby were with lasix so that’s one thing to keep in mind.
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