5/6: Churchill Downs ~ 148th Kentucky Oaks Day

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 148TH KENTUCKY OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N12X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

What a fun start to the weekend with a super competitive group of fillies and mares with several live price candidates..

Most Likely: #5 Park On the Nile 10-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Skratch Kat 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Imogene Malvina 9-2 WON ($18.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Idiomatic 4-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Inventing 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #10 Misread 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Olga Isabel 12-1 WON ($22.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Blamethechampagne 6-1 7th


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Red Hornet 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Grael Gate SCR
Best Value: #4 Myopic 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1e West Point entry 7-5 4th/5th


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Juju's Map 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Semble Juste 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Illiogami 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Family Time 12-1 5th


5th: Modesty (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bleecker Street 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #4 She Can't Sing 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Fluffy Socks 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Hendy Woods 5-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 2-3-4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-4-7/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple: 5x2x3x1x3 = 90 x .50 = $45


P4 Grid:

2: 10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-4-7/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x $2 = $36


6th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f ($2-2 day P6, .20 Derby City P6, P3, DD))

Most Likely: #2 Shedaresthedevil 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pauline's Pearl 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Battle Bling 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Jilted Bride 6-1 6th


$2 Fri/Sat P6 Grid:

FRI 6: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
FRI 11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 10: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 11: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 12: 7-13-15-16 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x2x1x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $192


7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (Oaks All Stake P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Olympiad 9-5 ($3.80)
Best Value: #2 Weyburn 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Happy Saver 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Fulsome 8-1 6th


P5 Grid:

3: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), 2-6-7 (B), - (C)
6: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x6x2x1 = $36
All A's: 3x1x3x2x1 = $18
Backup (2 in 7th): 3x1x3x2x1 = 18 x .50 = $9


P4 Grid:

4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), 2-6-7 (B), - (C)
6: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x1 = 12 x $3 = $36
All A's: 1x3x2x1 = 6 x $2 = $12
Backup (2 in 7th): 1x3x2x1 = $6

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/8/6/3,5) Paid $13.85 x 6 = $83.10


8th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Oaks All Stake P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dolce Zel 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Kneesnhips 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 McKulick 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Spicer 3-1 9th


9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Gerrymander 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Matareya 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Awake At Midnyte 15-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Ain't Easy 12-1 8th


10th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Deep, difficult group..

Most Likely: #8 Gear Jockey 5-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Pyron 6-1 13th
Exotics Use: #3 Caravel 5-1 6th
Super Add: #2 The Lir Jet 12-1 11th


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3, Oaks/Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Desert Dawn 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Kathleen O. 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Nest 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #11 Cocktail Moments 30-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Nostalgic 15-1 10th


P5 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-9 (C)
9: 6-8-9 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-11 (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 1x2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backups: $27 (2-9 in 8th) + $27 (1-2-11 in 10th) + $18 (2-11 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

8: 4-5 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-9 (C)
9: 6-8-9 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-11 (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backups: $27 (2-9 in 8th) + $27 (1-2-11 in 10th) + $18 (2-11 in 11th)


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

Oaks: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-11 (C)
Turf: 1-6 (A), 8-19.800 (B), - (C)
Derby: 7-13-15-16 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x6 = $72
All A's: 3x2x4 = $24


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

Oaks: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-11 (C)
Derby: 7-13-15-16 (A), 3-10, - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6 = 18 x $4 = $72
All A's: 3x4 = 12 x $2 = $24
Backup: 3x4 = 12 x $2 = $24


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Come for the Oaks and undercard stakes.. Stay for this eye-popping first level ALW stacked with impressive first out winners, seasonal debuters and stakes-experienced droppers..

Best Value: #4 Society 8-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #9 Wish You Well 9-5 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Ontheonesandtwos 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Angitude 6-1 11th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Best Value: #10 Merci Road 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Fabulous Fanny 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Milan's Girl 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Colorful Mischief 5-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

9: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 7-10 (A), - (B), 8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x3x2 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A's: 1x3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backup (8-12 in 13th): 1x3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-11 (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 4-9 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
13: 7-10 (A), 8-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (1-2-11 in 10th): 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve