6/11: Belmont Park ~ 154th Belmont Stakes Day

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK ~ 154TH BELMONT STAKES DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Win for Gold 2-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Tap'n de Bank 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 My Last Mission 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Unique Unions 3-1 3rd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Three Jokers 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Uncle Moonlight 10-1 WON ($21.40)
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 2-1 3rd/8th
Exotics Use: #8 Higher Quality 9-2 7th


3rd: Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Matareya 6-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #5 Echo Zulu Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Dream Lith 15-1 3rd


4th: Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Regal Glory 6-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #3 Speak of the Devil 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Leggs Galore 15-1 4th


5th: Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 First Constitution 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Lone Rock 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Warrant 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Fearless 3-1 WON ($9.30)


P5 Grid:

1: 3-6-7 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
2: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
3: 4 (A), - (B), 5/SCR (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x1x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-8 in 2nd); 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5 in 3rd)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
3: 4 (A), 5/SCR (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 2-3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backup: 2x1x2x2 = $8 ($4 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (2/4,5/2/7) $113.50 ($56.87 for .50)


6th: Woody Stephens (G1), 3yo, 7f ($1 P6, P3, DD)

Jack Christopher the overwhelmingly likely winner here, but the other 5 are excellent 3yo's that are going to win a number of stakes going forward. We know what Pappacap and Chasing Time can do now that they've turned back, so today the one to watch is Morello coming back to one turn. Pletcher pair Wit and Provocateur are rock solid sprint players already. In other words,there's more going on here than the $3.00 favorite beating tomato cans..

Most Likely: #1 Jack Christopher 1-2 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #4 Morello 9-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Pappacap 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Wit 7-2 4th


7th: Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

The AVERAGE record of this quintet is 16/8-3-2 for $1.7MM each..

Most Likely: #1 Letruska 6-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Clairiere 3-1 WON ($11.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Search Results 9-2 3rd


P4 Grid:

4: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-5 (A), 2-3-7 (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x1x2 = 10 x $5 = $50
All A's: 1x2x1x2 = 4 x $5 = $20
Backup (A-A-A-C): 2 / 1-5 / 1 / 2-3-5 (1x2x1x3 = 6 x $3 = $18)

$5.00 Pick 4 (2/7/1/4) Paid $335.00


Intercontinental/Phipps DBL:

FRI 11: 1-4-10-13 (A), 5-9 (B), 7-12 (C)
SAT 7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2 = 12 x $4 = $48
All A's: 4x2 = 8 x $2 = $16
Backup: 7-12 w/ 1-4 (2x2 = 4 x $2 = $8); 1-4-10-13 w/ 3-5 (4x2 = 8 x $2 = $16)

$2 DBL (7/4) Paid $65.50


8th: Jaipur (G1), 4+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Casa Creed 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #1 Change of Control 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Scuttlebuzz 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #12 Gear Jockey 6-1 11th


True North/Jaipur DBL:

FRI 9: 3 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
SAT 8: 1-4-5-8-12 (A), - (B), 7-11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5 = 5 x $8 = $40
Backup: 2x5 = 10 x $2 = $20; 1x3 = 3 x $4 = $12

$1 DBL (3/4) $8.60 x 8 = $68.80


9th: Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Flightline 3-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #4 Happy Saver 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Speaker's Corner 8-5 3rd


10th: Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Santin 7-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Channel Maker 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Adhamo 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Gufo 3-1 3rd


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

4: 2 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
8: 1-4-8 (A), 5-12-13 (B), - (C)
10: 9-10 (A), 4 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x3 = 18 x $3 = $54
All A's: 1x3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18
Backups: 1x3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18 (3 in 4th); 1x3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18 (2-7 in 10th)

$3 Pick 3 (2/4/7) $625.50


11th: 154th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

This is a fun Belmont despite the over-arcing criticisms of the Classic Season, highlighted by a Derby winner in Rich Strike that is much easier to like than people want to admit and a filly in Nest that makes more sense trying this spot the closer you look. Add in the 1-3 Wood Memorial finishers (Mo Donegal/Skippylongstocking) that were split by the Preakness winner, the hard-trying Creative Minister & Barber Road and Casse's Sir Winston lookalike Golden Glider and you've got an intriguing 154th Test of the Champion. Bred best for the trip, at an attractive 8-1 and getting 5# from the boys, I'll key off the filly. But I find myself rooting for Rich Strike..

Best Value: #3 Nest 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 We the People 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Rich Strike 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Creative Minister 6-1 5th


Gold Cup/Belmont DBL:

FRI 8: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-5-6 (C)
SAT 11: 1-3-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x4 = 8 x $6 = $48
Backup: 3x3 = 9 x $2 = $18


$0.20 2-day P6:

FRI 9: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
FRI 10: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 8: 1-4-5-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 10: 9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 11: 1-3-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x1x5x2x4 = 360 x .20 = $72


P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-3-5 (C)
8: 1-4-8 (A), 5-12 (B), - (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 9-10 (A), 2-4-6-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x6x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (C-A-A-A-A): 3x3x1x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-8 (A), 5-12 (B), - (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-4-9-10 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x6x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C): 3x1x4x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


12th: MCLM/$75k, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Al's Rocket 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #7 Floki's Flight 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 North Carolina 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Cheeky Tico 15-1 7th


13th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-Inner

Best Value: #7 Happy Hill Lil 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Palace Gossip 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Solib 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Fontanafredda 5-1 8th


P5 Grid:

9: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-4-6-7-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
12: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 7-12 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x5x1x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x6x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 5 (1/7/6/3,5,8,11/12,13,14,15,16) Paid $447.00


P4 Grid:

10: 2-4-9-10 (A), - (B), 1-3-5-6-7-8 (C)
11: 1-3-4 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
12: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 7-12 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 4x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (C-A-A-A): 6x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[walocke1@msn.com]

Should race 10 bet summaries be a 2 rather than 3?

Thanks Steve

14-16 year following

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[atolunch]

Steve,

Deepest condolences to you and your family, you're all in our thoughts and prayers.

Thanks as always for your tireless efforts and time with your handicapping and insights.

In the all turf P3, you list the #1 as your second choice, but do not use him when you go 6 deep in that wager. Is that correct?

Best of luck today!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by walocke1

Should race 10 bet summaries be a 2 rather than 3?

Yes.. Gufo, not Tokyo Gold. THX!

Originally Posted by atolunch

Deepest condolences to you and your family, you're all in our thoughts and prayers. Thanks as always for your tireless efforts and time with your handicapping and insights.

In the all turf P3, you list the #1 as your second choice, but do not use him when you go 6 deep in that wager. Is that correct? Best of luck today!!

Thanks Larry. He had a fabulous life and I've been fortunate to have him close by this long.

Turf P3 Leg B ~ 8: 1-4-8 (A), 5-12-13 (B)

G/L!

[essayamx]

Condolences Steve. It is a testament to your character and fortitude that you produced these opinions during this time of loss. Good work as usual.