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Old 08-04-2022, 06:29 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Default 8/4: Saratoga (Day 16; Alydar)

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lady Quinn 4-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Acqua Bella 2-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Sicilian Grandma 5-1 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Girl Afraid 5-2 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very interesting pedigreed affair with daughter of Biofuel (Pallotta Sisters), half to Vision Perfect (Gustiamo), daughter of fast Squeeze (Illicit) and more..

Most Likely: #5 Cowichan 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Private Credit 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Illicit 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Personal Pursuit SCR


3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Plenty of pace here and why is Boston Post Road going to necessarily withstand it?

Most Likely: #2 W W Fitzy 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Played Hard 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 Flashndynamite 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Boston Post Road 9-5 2nd


4th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Voice of Spring 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Alpine Queen 5-2 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Raffinity 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 My Sweet Wife 7-2 3rd


5th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mistical Curlin 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Sensible Jim 3-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Lefty's War 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 One More Baby 3-1 WON ($7.80)


P5 Grid:

1: 1-3 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
2: 2-5 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
3: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-6 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
5: 2 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $12 (9 in 2nd) + $4 (6 in 3rd) + $12 (3 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

2: 2-5 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
3: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-6 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
5: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: $4 (6 in 3rd)


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

With addition of blinkers and the rail, Rosario could put Who Me on the point and not look back..

Best Value: #1 Who Me 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Lachaise 7-2 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #9 Twirling Charlie 12-1 10th
Super Add: #8 New York Panther 5-2 6th


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Bye Bye 3-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Always Late 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Spicy Marg 7-2 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Mail Order 7-2 4th


8th: Alydar-R, 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mystic Night 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Masqueparade 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Art Collector 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #2 Bal Harbour 6-1 5th


9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-Inner (DD)

Terrific heat with seemingly 7 of the 9 interests possible for laurels. At 8-1, I made Buy Land and See the Depaula Play of the Day, but beyond the faves, Bye Bye Melvin (15-1), Emaraaty (6-1) and Big Everest (6-1) all worth considering in the pay slots..

Best Value: #6 Buy Land and See 8-1 6th ~ Depaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #5 Floriform 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Atone 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Bye Bye Melvin 15-1 4th


10th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #6 O'Gotten Girl 8-1 -
Next Best: #4 Freedomofthepress 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Miss Domina 5-2 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #2 Mandy Green 5-1 -


P5 Grid:

6: 1-7 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
7: 1-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $36 (5-6 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), 2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 2x1x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup: $18 (5-6 in 8th)


Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 08-04-2022 at 06:33 PM.
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  #2  
Old 08-04-2022, 10:51 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 08-04-2022, 10:44 PM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
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Terrible 5/2 morning line on the last winner .
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Old 08-05-2022, 05:29 AM
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jms62 jms62 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Terrible 5/2 morning line on the last winner .
I would be interested in hearing the logic behind that statement. The winning horse was the 2nd choice on ML? Seems that the bettors are the ones that got it wrong in this instance.
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Old 08-05-2022, 06:09 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Was surprised she floated to that number.. David was too and acknowledged being off in a tweet, but after the SCR of the 10, that R Reposada took money (for some reason) and Miss Domina got lost on the board. Doesn't happen a lot here.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 08-05-2022, 09:50 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
I would be interested in hearing the logic behind that statement. The winning horse was the 2nd choice on ML? Seems that the bettors are the ones that got it wrong in this instance.
When was the last time a 5/2 morning line hoss opened at 15-1 and was double digits for a while after that ?
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  #7  
Old 08-05-2022, 10:06 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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The guy is the best ML maker in the game by FAR. Like, it's not even close. He got one kind of wrong (the horse did win) and Dan has an issue with it.

Hilarious.

Freedomofthepress took way more money than he thought.

At the end of the day....who cares other than a guy who is 0 for the meet?
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