7/13: Saratoga ~ Day 3 (Diana, Sanford; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW-$, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Amore Sofia 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Dare to Breeze 4-5 WON ($3.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Mischief Maxey 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Gerlin's Empire 6-1 2nd


2nd: Kelso (G3), 4+, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Carl Spackler 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #4 Talk of the Nation 2-1 2nd


3rd: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Celestial Gaze 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Didinger 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Top Gunner 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Lost in Rome 8-1 4th


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 CLASSIC LEGACY 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Illuminaire 7-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #6 Vinco 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Kunshan Bridge 8-1 5th


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Rebel Red 5-1 WON ($6.70)
Next Best: #1e Brown entry 6-5 2nd/6th
Exotics Use: #7 Ramblin' Wreck 4-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Samburu 8-1 4th


P5 Grid:

1: 4-5 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
2: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-4 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
4: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:


P4 Grid:

2: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-4 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
4: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:


6th: NY-ALW/N1Z, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Act of Congress could prove tough to catch here. After that, there's 7-8 that look eligible..

Most Likely: #10 Act of Congress 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Turriga 5-1 5th
Best Value: #3 City Blocks 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Stolen Future 7-2 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f ($1 P6, P3, DD)

This is a problematic group of babies..

Best Value: #2 Moment's Notice 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Tenacious Leader 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Munson 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Tough Catch 8-1 WON ($15.00)


P4 Grid:

4: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 1-2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x3x2x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)
Backup (AACA): 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Yeesh. More problematic maidens, albeit for a different reason.. These have clear talent and there's easily 7 conceivable for graduation (1e-2-3-4-5-7-10)..

Best Value: #5 Escondido 10-1 11th
Next Best: #10 Hurricane Nelson 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Upstanding 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Point Clear 5-1 5th


MONMOUTH 9th: Blue Sparkler, 3yo-F, 5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #8 Shuangxi 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Tiffany Girl 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Super Freaky Girl 4-1 8th
Super Add: #5 El Terreno 9-2 WON ($8.40)


Cross Country P5 Grid:

MTH 9: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAR 9: 8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
MTH 10: 6-7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
SAR 10: 1-6 (A), 3-4-5 (B), - (C)
SAR 11: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-5 in MTH 10th)


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Irish Aces is certainly 'likeliest' dropping back from stakes placement, but also has a license to regress which would open the window to a host of alternatives. Cherie brings Taking Candy back from year layoff and he was terrific here last summer taking ALW ahead of Saranac 2nd to Carl Spackler. Will be obscured v. those with recency..

Best Value: #10 Taking Candy 10-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #8 Irish Aces 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Beuys 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Tidal Forces 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (10-1) Paid $227.75
$1 Trifecta (10-1-8) Paid $824.50


P5 Grid:

5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 10 (A), 1 (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAAA): 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-7 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


MONMOUTH 10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #6 Palm Island 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #7 Threethirtythree 9-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Cruising Derek 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Little Skippy 8-1 6th


10th: Diana (G1), F&M-4+, 9f-Inner (P3, DD)

The 1st Beat Byk race of the season and it's an absolute war. Moira should be ready to fire and Whitebeam has a tactical edge with uncertainty of where the speed is coming from.. Play to qualify to win a seat to NHC: https://www.ntra.com/nhc/beatbyk/

Most Likely: #1 Moira 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Whitebeam 4-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #3 Mission of Joy 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Gina Romantica 8-1 3rd


11th: Sanford (G3), 2yo, 6f (DD)

Jerry Robb returns with Studlydoright and while he won't be 14-1 again, he won't be close to favored either. Right back. Mentee and Baby Dukes could end up sparing up front and Butch Reid's debut winner offers value at 12-1..

Most Likely: #6 Studlydoright 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Baby Dukes 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Three Echoes 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Mo Plex 8-1 WON ($5.70)


12th: OC-S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #7 Three Zero 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Rhythm Nic 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Dr Oseran 7-2 9th
Super Add: #5 Heymackit'sjack 8-1 7th


P5 Grid:

8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 3-4-5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 6 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
12: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x6x1x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), 4-5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

MTH SCR/CHG'S

[Max Caidy]

Great job today Steve! Thanks for your picks!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Max Caidy

Great job today Steve! Thanks for your picks!

Max.. Thanks. Had a couple of miscues, notably whiffing on my pal Lee Einsidler's Reynolds Channel, but it's been a fun 3 days so far with nice, steady results. Hope everyone is getting licks in and doing well.

[Kasept]

Above are the Thoro-Graph looks for the top 3 in the 9th yesterday that produced an $824 triple and I want to slip in an explainer..

TAKING CANDY had the TG Sire Index pattern opportunity I talk about all the time in his first start as a 4yo. Note that Twirling Candy progeny have a TGI (Thoro-Graph Index) of 16 at 2, 13 at 3 and 10.75 at 4.

Taking Candy improved 3+ points from 2 to 3 (15.75 down to 12.25) and was now making his 4yo debut having established a career top of 8 as a 3yo, which happened to come at Saratoga in the ALW before the good try in the Saranac (10). His sire index suggests improvement as a 4yo of 2+ points, so you could project him running in the 5-6 range. At 10-1 with the way Cherie is going, he felt like the right price key and he looked a winner every step under confident Jose Lezcano at 6-1.

TIDAL FORCES established rock solid credentials with the 4's at Gulfstream over the winter and was a little dirtied up from the Danger Hour try (9) and off turf run (7). At 10-1 (and then crazily ignored at 30-1 in the live betting), he was a one of the ones you wanted to use with Taking Candy.

IRISH ACES was the obvious fave and horse to beat, but as I wrote, a regression from the big career best (2) could open things up for alternatives.

I used BEUYS who had run lots of 5's as well. He was a mild, chasing 7th. The result of Taking Candy, Tidal Forces and Irish Aces tripped the $824.50 tri.

GEORGIE W had paired 3 straights 7's and need to move forward and did to be 4th at 8-1 pushing the Super to $7,650.