Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[NTamm1215]

Animal Kingdom - Preakness at about 1/20th of the price he was yesterday.
Nehro - Belmont; Preakness would be 4th race in 8 weeks, he's very well suited to the Belmont
Mucho Macho Man - Preakness; seems like he's just figuring things out
Shackleford - Matt Winn on Foster day or Iowa Derby
Master of Hounds - Ran much better than I thought he would; Gomez said the connections are thinking about the Belmont.
Santiva - Belmont
Brilliant Speed - A turf race somewhere
Dialed In - There are five million reasons why he will be in the Preakness
Pants on Fire - Preakness; why the hell not, maybe he can be wildly overbet again
Twice the Appeal - Ohio Derby
Soldat - Hill Prince
Stay Thirsty - A N2X at Belmont
Derby Kitten - Colonial Turf Cup/Lone Star Derby
Decisive Moment - Memorial Day Handicap at Calder
Archarcharch - A speedy and healthy recovery
Midnight Interlude - Matt Winn on Foster Day
Twinspired - A N2X at Arlington
Watch Me Go - The shelf until Tampa next year
Comma to the Top - Came out injured, sprinting/turf at Del Mar

The horses that have been mentioned for the Preakness that did not run yesterday include Flashpoint, Sway Away, and Dance City (who has worked twice at CD in the last 2 wks). If anyone notices any other horse and wants to add them have at it.

[lemoncrush]

For the Preakness, what about Astrology, jj's lucky train, bandbox, anthonys cross or Mr Commons?

[justindew]

According to DRF...

Horses who did not run in the Derby, but are expected for the Preakness, include Astrology, Concealed Identity, Dance City, Flashpoint, King Congie, Norman Asbjornson, Prime Cut, and Sway Away, and possibly Mr. Commons.


PROSPECTIVE PREAKNESS FIELD

Committed:

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Astrology
5. Concealed Idenity
6. Dance City
7. Flashpoint
8. King Congie
9. Norman Asbjornson
10. Sway Away
11. Midnight Interlude
12. Casper's Touch


Possible

Mr. Commons
Santiva
Saratoga Red


Doubtful

Nehro
Mucho Macho Man

[VOL JACK]

I hope MMM is pointed for the Belmont instead of running in the Preakness. (Chances of that are slim to none)

I think he will be very tough at 12f.

He is a clone of Summer Bird.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I hope MMM is pointed for the Belmont instead of running in the Preakness. (Chances of that are slim to none)

I think he will be very tough at 12f.

He is a clone of Summer Bird.

I feel like MMM is more a "strike while the iron's hot" type of horse. I feel more strongly about Nehro skipping it and pointing to the Belmont. He ran a good race yesterday.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by justindew

According to DRF...

Horses who did not run in the Derby, but are expected for the Preakness, include Astrology, Concealed Identity, Dance City, Flashpoint, King Congie, Norman Asbjornson, Prime Cut, and Sway Away, and possibly Mr. Commons.

What about Bandbox? Thought he was the MD horse going this year

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by tjfla

What about Bandbox? Thought he was the MD horse going this year

Earlier Rodney Jenkins said they were looking at running him in the Jimmy Murphy going a flat mile on the grass Preakness week...looking to set him up for the 3yo grass races in Virginia.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Animal Kingdom - Preakness at about 1/20th of the price he was yesterday.
Nehro - Belmont; Preakness would be 4th race in 8 weeks, he's very well suited to the Belmont
Mucho Macho Man - Preakness; seems like he's just figuring things out
Shackleford - Matt Winn on Foster day or Iowa Derby
Master of Hounds - Ran much better than I thought he would; Gomez said the connections are thinking about the Belmont.
Santiva - Belmont
Brilliant Speed - A turf race somewhere
Dialed In - There are five million reasons why he will be in the Preakness
Pants on Fire - Preakness; why the hell not, maybe he can be wildly overbet again
Twice the Appeal - Ohio Derby
Soldat - Hill Prince
Stay Thirsty - A N2X at Belmont
Derby Kitten - Colonial Turf Cup/Lone Star Derby
Decisive Moment - Memorial Day Handicap at Calder
Archarcharch - A speedy and healthy recovery
Midnight Interlude - Matt Winn on Foster Day
Twinspired - A N2X at Arlington
Watch Me Go - The shelf until Tampa next year
Comma to the Top - Came out injured, sprinting/turf at Del Mar

The horses that have been mentioned for the Preakness that did not run yesterday include Flashpoint, Sway Away, and Dance City (who has worked twice at CD in the last 2 wks). If anyone notices any other horse and wants to add them have at it.

I agree with your assessment, it looks like there will be more new faces in the Preakness than Derby vets...and that's a relief. It will be interesting to see if Nehro's connections can avoid the temptation to run him...I think the Belmont makes a lot more sense. Master of Hounds would be ok in the Preakness, he's lightly raced and should be able to come back in two weeks but they will probably ship him back home and return him a couple days before the Belmont...why learn from mistakes, just keep making the same ones.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Animal Kingdom - Preakness at about 1/20th of the price he was yesterday.
Nehro - Belmont; Preakness would be 4th race in 8 weeks, he's very well suited to the Belmont
Mucho Macho Man - Preakness; seems like he's just figuring things out
Shackleford - Matt Winn on Foster day or Iowa Derby
Master of Hounds - Ran much better than I thought he would; Gomez said the connections are thinking about the Belmont.
Santiva - Belmont
Brilliant Speed - A turf race somewhere
Dialed In - There are five million reasons why he will be in the Preakness
Pants on Fire - Preakness; why the hell not, maybe he can be wildly overbet again
Twice the Appeal - Ohio Derby
Soldat - Hill Prince
Stay Thirsty - A N2X at Belmont
Derby Kitten - Colonial Turf Cup/Lone Star Derby
Decisive Moment - Memorial Day Handicap at Calder
Archarcharch - A speedy and healthy recovery
Midnight Interlude - Matt Winn on Foster Day
Twinspired - A N2X at Arlington
Watch Me Go - The shelf until Tampa next year
Comma to the Top - Came out injured, sprinting/turf at Del Mar

The horses that have been mentioned for the Preakness that did not run yesterday include Flashpoint, Sway Away, and Dance City (who has worked twice at CD in the last 2 wks). If anyone notices any other horse and wants to add them have at it.

Is that where you think Shackleford should go or what they said? I thought I read (in TTs maybe?) that Romans said Preakness? As for Macho..watching the replay he really doesn't seem to get those lanky legs under him until about 10 strides from the wire. He gobbles up so much ground once he does.

Re: comment on Pants On Fire

[booner]

Pants On Fire taking a break.....

http://www.drf.com/news/louisiana-de...kentucky-derby

[NTamm1215]

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...belmont-stakes

Nehro more likely for the Belmont.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...belmont-stakes

Nehro more likely for the Belmont.

I'm glad they're skipping the Preakness...

[ateamstupid]

Guesses on Animal Kingdom's odds? 8/5? 2-1?

[slotdirt]

I'd say that's close to right. Motion is a locally based guy, so that should have something of a "Borel" effect on the odds, IMO.

[justindew]

Almost every year, a horse who ran big in defeat in the Derby goes to the Preakness, gets hammered at the windows, and runs 7th. I'm thinking that will be Mucho Macho Man this year.

I can see Dialed In getting heavy support because of the slow pace in the Derby, even though it didn't seem to bother AK.

Animal Kingdom 9-5
Dialed In 5-2
Mucho Macho Man 4-1

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Guesses on Animal Kingdom's odds? 8/5? 2-1?

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - Medaglia d'Oro 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - War Emblem 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

If this horse wins the Preakness I will eat the program..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If this horse wins the Preakness I will eat the program..

I don't understand this. He was clearly the best horse yesterday. The only horse who ran comparably was Nehro. Unless you think one of the new shooters is something serious, I don't get how you can be strongly against AK.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't understand this. He was clearly the best horse yesterday. The only horse who ran comparably was Nehro. Unless you think one of the new shooters is something serious, I don't get how you can be strongly against AK.

Please the horse had a perfect trip into a decent pace and is hardily a star. His own trainer wouldnt have pick him vs. Tobys Corner. He ran well..He has done enough, his 15 minutes of fame are over!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If this horse wins the Preakness I will eat the program..

You better buy your topping of choice. It could get dry without it.