Win streak attempt

[Calzone Lord]

I had argued that I think picking 10 straight winners would be harder than 1,000 straight losers. People disagreed with me -- but I know there are horses everyday who I believe have a 0.00% chance of winning.

There's no such thing as a horse with a 100% chance of winning... outside of Sharp Cat in her walkover maybe. The fact that a lot of stuff can go wrong during a race is only a very small part -- it mostly boils down to the fact that race horses are very fragile animals and rarely stay in peak form for an extended number of starts.

Very few horses at all levels ever go 10 straight races without turning in "Non-efforts" -- horses with a lot of early speed and poor trainers are most likely to turn in dismal races. Horses with excellent trainers who stay off of the early pace are most likely to produce consistent results.

Long win streaks are basically about staying free of injury, in good health, and simply being better than your competition you face.

Anyway, GPK was asking about it in the other thread -- and I'd told him I'd try to see how many winners in a row I could get.

I will take one horse a day who I believe is the most likely winner of the entire day -- and see if I get to 10 winners in a row.

These will not be 'good betting situations' -- a good betting situation is when you believe your chances of winning comfortably exceed the odds you're getting when the betting closes.

Most of these horses will be pounded to a short price because of their obvious dominance. Still, it will be a good test to see how often the days most invincible looking horse fails to win.

[Calzone Lord]

Biggest standout of the day for Thursday:

Hoosier Race #2: Julie Darlin

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Biggest standout of the day for Thursday:

Hoosier Race #2: Julie Darlin

Won by 13.5 lengths and paid $2.80

1 down, 9 more to go.


Biggest standout of the day for Friday:

Thistle Downs Race #6: Coupled entry of Blazing Bling (#1) and Disappeared (#1A)

[Calzone Lord]

Blazing Bling won by 9.75 lengths at monstrous odds of 1/9.

2 down, 8 more to go.


Staying in the Buckeye state, Princess Christine has lost 15 straight races (9 at Beulah Park, 5 at River Downs, and one at that legendary racing oval Mt. Pleasant)

But, Princess Christine has finally "found her friends" in tomorrows 1st race at River Downs and she should help trigger a microscopic daily double.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Blazing Bling won by 9.75 lengths at monstrous odds of 1/9.

2 down, 8 more to go.


Staying in the Buckeye state, Princess Christine has lost 15 straight races (9 at Beulah Park, 5 at River Downs, and one at that legendary racing oval Mt. Pleasant)

But, Princess Christine has finally "found her friends" in tomorrows 1st race at River Downs and she should help trigger a microscopic daily double.

Opened at 1/9. I must say this is fun to watch.

Paul

[pweizer]

Wins by 6 in hand despite being pressed every step of the way.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

But, Princess Christine has finally "found her friends" in tomorrows 1st race at River Downs and she should help trigger a microscopic daily double.

According to the result chart -- Princess Christine actually won by 9.5 lengths.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=1


I was a little bummed out that she went off at 1/5 odds -- she was 5/2 on the morning line.

I was debating between either using her -- or using the 6/5 morning line favorite in the next race ... but I choose Princess Christine because I thought the 15 race losing streak would translate to better odds. It felt like she might be even money and the winner of the 2nd race might be 1/5.

The favorite won the 2nd race by 14 lengths and paid Even money. The Daily Double paid $5.40.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=2


Ah well. 3 down, 7 more to go.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

According to the result chart -- Princess Christine actually won by 9.5 lengths.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=1


I was a little bummed out that she went off at 1/5 odds -- she was 5/2 on the morning line.

I was debating between either using her -- or using the 6/5 morning line favorite in the next race ... but I choose Princess Christine because I thought the 15 race losing streak would translate to better odds. It felt like she might be even money and the winner of the 2nd race might be 1/5.

The favorite won the 2nd race by 14 lengths and paid Even money. The Daily Double paid $5.40.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120901&RN=2


Ah well. 3 down, 7 more to go.

Yea, but dat .10 supa in the first paid five fiddy.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I had argued that I think picking 10 straight winners would be harder than 1,000 straight losers. People disagreed with me -- but I know there are horses everyday who I believe have a 0.00% chance of winning.

There's no such thing as a horse with a 100% chance of winning... outside of Sharp Cat in her walkover maybe. The fact that a lot of stuff can go wrong during a race is only a very small part -- it mostly boils down to the fact that race horses are very fragile animals and rarely stay in peak form for an extended number of starts.

Very few horses at all levels ever go 10 straight races without turning in "Non-efforts" -- horses with a lot of early speed and poor trainers are most likely to turn in dismal races. Horses with excellent trainers who stay off of the early pace are most likely to produce consistent results.

Long win streaks are basically about staying free of injury, in good health, and simply being better than your competition you face.

Anyway, GPK was asking about it in the other thread -- and I'd told him I'd try to see how many winners in a row I could get.

I will take one horse a day who I believe is the most likely winner of the entire day -- and see if I get to 10 winners in a row.

These will not be 'good betting situations' -- a good betting situation is when you believe your chances of winning comfortably exceed the odds you're getting when the betting closes.

Most of these horses will be pounded to a short price because of their obvious dominance. Still, it will be a good test to see how often the days most invincible looking horse fails to win.

Anyone who thinks picking 10 straight winners is easier than 1000 straight losers needs their head examined.

Though I suppose one could cherry pick over a long period of time, but under the constraint of having to pick one a day? Yikes.

[zippyneedsawin]

What about the mighty Archwarrior? Not willing to take a chance on a supposed sure thing 2yo?

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

What about the mighty Archwarrior? Not willing to take a chance on a supposed sure thing 2yo?

Nevermind, just saw your other thread.