Derby Trail Probables/Possibles

Kasept · #1 03-01-2021, 08:55 AM

6/5 (BEL): Belmont Stakes

1. Rombauer (McCarthy/J. Velazquez)
2. Hot Rod Charlie (O'Neill/Prat)
3. Rock Your World (Sadler/Rosario)
4. Known Agenda (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
5. Bourbonic (Pletcher/Carmouche)
6. Overtook (Pletcher/Franco)
7. Essential Quality (Cox/Saez)
8. France Go de Ina (Mori/Santana)

moses · #2 03-01-2021, 05:39 PM

This horse Weyburn interests me. A 1/2 brother to a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter in Yorkton (but sired by Pioneerof the Nile rather than Speightstown).

I imagine he will be about the 6th choice in this race but has the looks of a horse that could really improve with time, although I admittedly thought the same thing about Green Light Go last year. This field may be too tough for him to win...but maybe he can bust into the exacta/trifecta at a solid price.

I'll have to take a closer look once the entries are official.

moses · #3 03-06-2021, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

This horse Weyburn interests me. A 1/2 brother to a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter in Yorkton (but sired by Pioneerof the Nile rather than Speightstown).

I imagine he will be about the 6th choice in this race but has the looks of a horse that could really improve with time, although I admittedly thought the same thing about Green Light Go last year. This field may be too tough for him to win...but maybe he can bust into the exacta/trifecta at a solid price.

I'll have to take a closer look once the entries are official.

Would you believe I didn’t bet this horse?

knickslions2 · #4 03-06-2021, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Would you believe I didn’t bet this horse?

Ouch

moses · #5 03-06-2021, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Ouch

I’ve been trying to be much more selective with my bets lately. So far it’s not paying off.

knickslions2 · #6 03-06-2021, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

I’ve been trying to be much more selective with my bets lately. So far it’s not paying off.

I always say if you like a bomb always take that one. You don’t need to hit many of those to be happy.

Dunbar · #7 03-02-2021, 04:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

AQU: GOTHAM

Freedom Fighter
Highly Motivated
Capo Kane
Wipe the Slate
Awesome Gerry
Smiley Sobotka
Irish Honor
The Reds
Weyburn

Thank you for doing this Derby prep thread again. It's a handy reference.

Kasept · #8 03-02-2021, 07:13 AM

Couple of hopeful reveals on ATR Monday with Casse noting 2 for 2 at 2 Helium goes in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday and 2 for 2 at 3 Soup and Sandwich in the March 27 Florida Derby..

moses · #9 03-02-2021, 08:46 AM

Has the Jeff Ruby always been a 100-point prep?

Kasept · #10 03-02-2021, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Has the Jeff Ruby always been a 100-point prep?

No.. Raised with CD purchase of Turfway and big purse boost.

moses · #11 03-02-2021, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

No.. Raised with CD purchase of Turfway and big purse boost.

I didn’t think so. Interested to see what kind of horses target that race and whether it dilutes the Bluegrass or not.

Kasept · #12 03-26-2021, 11:38 AM

Prevalence confirmed for Wood..

Kasept · #13 03-27-2021, 03:47 PM

8 expected for Santa Anita Derby..

Medina Spirit (Baffert/J. Velazquez)
Roman Centurian (S .Callaghan/J. Hernandez)
Dream Shake (Eurton)
Defunded (Baffert)
Ottothelegend (Asmussen)
Parnelli (Shirreffs)
Rock Your World (Sadler)
The Great One (O'Neill)

Kasept · #14 03-28-2021, 09:41 AM

1. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill) 110
2. Like the King (Wesley Ward) 104
3. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher) 102
4. Rebel’s Romance-IRE (Charlie Appleby) 100
5. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey) 60
6. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen) 66
7. Mandaloun (Brad Cox) 52
8. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert) 50
9. Helium (Mark Casse) 50
10. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens) 50
11. Essential Quality (Brad Cox) 40
-- Panadol (Salem bin Ghad)40
12. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse) 40
13. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher) 40
14. Proxy (Mike Stidham) 34
15. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert) 34
16. O Besos (Greg Foley) 25
17. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver) 22
-- New Treasure-IRE (John Gosden) 20
18. Hozier (Bob Baffert)
19. JPN Road to Derby
20. EUR Road to Derby
---------------------------------------------
21. Drain the Clock (Saffie Joseph Jr.) 20
22. Crowded Trade (Chad Brown) 20
---------------------------------------------
-- Hockey Dad (Doug O'Neill) 20
23. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro) 18
24. Spielberg (Bob Baffert) 17
25. Rombauer (Michael McCarthy) 14
26. Nova Rags (Bill Mott) 14
27. Capo Kane (Harold Wyner) 12
28. Papetu (Antonio Sano) 11

cakes44 · #15 03-28-2021, 12:20 PM

If there was ever a year for a foreign horse to win it...

If Essential Quality doesn’t make it for some reason or doesn’t fire, this group is something else.

RolloTomasi · #16 03-28-2021, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

If there was ever a year for a foreign horse to win it...

If Essential Quality doesn’t make it for some reason or doesn’t fire, this group is something else.

Yep; the Santa Anita Derby is equally as atrocious as this weekend's preps.

That said, Rock Your World is an x-factor of interest. Has a million dollar pedigree that goes back several generations. Most of the family accomplishments are on turf but there's definitely some dirt in there (Candy Ride, Olympio, Olympic Charmer, Herecomesthebride).

Ottothelegend has a very strong, versatile pedigree as well, but he's way behind the eight ball.

moses · #17 03-28-2021, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yep; the Santa Anita Derby is equally as atrocious as this weekend's preps.

That said, Rock Your World is an x-factor of interest. Has a million dollar pedigree that goes back several generations. Most of the family accomplishments are on turf but there's definitely some dirt in there (Candy Ride, Olympio, Olympic Charmer, Herecomesthebride).

Ottothelegend has a very strong, versatile pedigree as well, but he's way behind the eight ball.

Dream Shake ran a big race in his maiden breaker, respectable 2-turn debut in the San Felipe, and has solid pedigree. The race doesn’t look great on paper with most of the top CA horses either off the trail or shipped out but maybe it won’t be so bad.

blackthroatedwind · #18 03-28-2021, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

If there was ever a year for a foreign horse to win it...

If Essential Quality doesn’t make it for some reason or doesn’t fire, this group is something else.

What has Essential Quality actually done on the racetrack to separate himself from quite a few other contenders? He’s gotten one perfect trip after another and run figures that put him very much in the mix but hardly a significant favorite. Perhaps he will show real improvement on Saturday, but call me skeptical.

moses · #19 03-29-2021, 11:32 AM

Tarantino is apparently pointing to the Bluegrass after running this weekend in the Jeff Ruby.

moses · #20 03-29-2021, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What has Essential Quality actually done on the racetrack to separate himself from quite a few other contenders? He’s gotten one perfect trip after another and run figures that put him very much in the mix but hardly a significant favorite. Perhaps he will show real improvement on Saturday, but call me skeptical.

Curious to see the odds for the Blue Grass. I thought Highly Motivated ran pretty well in the Gotham considering the bit of trouble he had and coming off a layoff. It'll be his first time around two turns but I think he can beat Essential Quality.

By the way, are my eyes playing tricks on me? The chart says Highly Motivated was back 2.5 lengths at the top of the stretch and finished 1.75 lengths behind. It looks like he made up much more than 3/4 of a length.