3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Kasept]

2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

Runner (Pool 1 Odds) (Pool 2 Odds) (Pool 3 Odds) Pool 4 ML Odds

1 American Pharoah (12-1) (10-1) (8-1) 9-2
2 Ami's Flatter (-) (-) (-) 50-1
3 Bold Conquest (-) (-) (-) 50-1
4 Bolo (-) (-) (34-1) 20-1
5 Carpe Diem (15-1) (12-1) (10-1) 6-1
6 Daredevil (48-1) (40-1) (43-1) 30-1

7 Dortmund (9-1) (10-1) (9-1) 5-1
8 Dubai Sky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
9 El Kabeir (74-1) (39-1) (47-1) 20-1
10 Far From OVer (-) (-) (13-1) 15-1
11 Far Right (-) (48-1) (31-1) 30-1
12 Firing Line (-) (35-1) (29-1) 12-1

13 Frosted (38-1) (31-1) (-) 30-1
14 International Star (-) (44-1) (22-1) 20-1
15 Itsaknockout (-) (30-1) (30-1) 30-1
16 Keen Ice (-) (-) (27-1) 50-1
17 Madefromlucky (-) (-) (-) 30-1
18 Materiality (-) (-) (-) 20-1

19 Mr. Z (47-1) (44-1) (44-1) 50-1
20 Mubtaahij (-) (-) (-) 30-1
21 Prospect Park (-) (35-1) (26-1) 15-1
22 Upstart (53-1) (12-1) (15-1) 15-1
23 War Story (-) (-) (30-1) 60-1
24 Mutuel Field-All Others (3-5) (5-2) (4-1) 8-1

[Rudeboyelvis]

30-1 on Far Right, if we can get it, is certainly worth a look

[Smarty Cide]

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

Mr Z will be 15-1 on Derby day.

[tanner12oz]

Unless a miracle occurs between now and then I beg to differ on mr z

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Unless a miracle occurs between now and then I beg to differ on mr z

[cakes44]

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

I suppose that were daredevil to win the wood, 30/1 would be value.

But yeah, what's the point

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

Whether either of those statements is true will depend on the closing odds of the Future Wager, not the ML.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

If you pick and bet on the eventual winner of the Derby you will make money (80-1).

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:

Originally Posted by cakes44

There is zero value anywhere.

The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

are you saying that American Pharoah 5-1 and Dortmund 7-1 is not a good ROI?