TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[Kasept]

5/5/18 ~ Kentucky Derby (1 1/4M) Churchill Downs

1. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez (50-1)
2. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado (30-1)
3. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanarie (30-1)
4. Flameaway-$ 70 (John Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano (30-1)
5. Audible 110 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano (8-1)
6. Good Magic 134 (e Five, Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz (12-1)
7. Justify 100 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith (3-1)
8. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham (50-1)
9. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
10. My Boy Jack 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife, Monomoy) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux (30-1)
11. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza (8-1)
12. Enticed 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado (30-1)
13. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras (50-1)
14. Mendelssohn 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore (5-1)
15. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke (50-1)
16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)
17. Solomini 54 (Zayat Stables, Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat (30-1)
18. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole, St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez (12-1)
19. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar, Repole) Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux (12-1)
20. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana (30-1)
AE-21. Blended Citizen-$ 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey (50-1)


5/19/18 ~ Preakness Stakes (1 3/16M) Pimlico

Justify (Baffert)
Good Magic (Brown)
Lone Sailor (Amoss)
Bravazo (Lukas)
Sporting Chance (Lukas)
Tenfold (Asmussen)
Quip (Brisset)
Diamond King (Jo. Servis)


6/9/18 ~ Belmont Stakes (1 1/2M) Belmont Park

Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill)
Bravazo (D. Wayne Lukas)
Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans)
Gronkowski (Chad Brown)
Hofburg (Bill Mott)
Justify (Bob Baffert)
Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher)
Restoring Hope (Baffert)
Tenfold (Steve Asmussen)
Vino Rosso (Pletcher)

[taxicab]

I like the Lexington bump up in points(I think it's an increase).
Turfway takes a hit for sure.

[Kasept]

5/12/18 ~ Peter Pan (1 1/8M) Belmont Park

Blended Citizen (O'Neill)
Ax Man (Baffert)
Core Beliefs (Eurton)
High North (Cox)
Zing Zang (Asmussen)
Gotta Go (Wilkes)


4/14/18 Arkansas Derby (1 1/8M) Oaklawn Park (100-40-20-10)

Magnum Moon (Pletcher) 100
Quip (Brisset) 40
Solomini (Baffert) 20
Combatant (Asmussen) 10


4/14/18 ~ Lexington (1 1/16M) Keeneland (20-8-4-2)

My Boy Jack (Desormeaux) 20
Telekinesis (Casse) 8
Pony Up (Pletcher) 4
Greyvitos (Kitchingman) 2


4/7/18 ~ Wood Memorial (1 1/8M) Aqueduct (100-40-20-10)

Vino Rosso (Pletcher) 100
Enticed (McLaughlin) 40
Restoring Hope (Baffert) 20
Firenze Fire (Ja. Servis) 10


4/7/18 ~ Santa Anita Derby (1 1/8M) Santa Anita (100-40-20-10)

Justify (Baffert) 100
Bolt d'Oro (Ruis) 40
Core Beliefs (Eurton) 20
Instilled Regard (Hollendorfer) 10


4/7/18 ~ Blue Grass (1 1/8M) Keeneland (100-40-20-10)

Good Magic (Brown) 100
Flameaway (Casse) 40
Free Drop Billy (Romans) 20
Sporting Chance (Lukas) 10


3/31/18 ~ Florida Derby (1 1/8M) Gulfstream (100-40-20-10)

Audible (Pletcher) 100
Hofburg (Mott) 40
Mississippi (Casse) 20
Catholic Boy (Thomas) 10


3/31/18 ~ UAE Derby (1 3/16M) Meydan (100-40-20-10)

Mendelssohn (O'Brien) 100
Rayya (Watson) 40
Reride (Asmussen) 20
Gold Town (Appleby) 10


3/24/18 ~ Louisiana Derby (1 1/8M) Fair Grounds (100-40-20-10)

Noble Indy (Pletcher) 100
Lone Sailor (Amoss) 40
My Boy Jack (Desormeaux) 20
Givemeaminit (Stewart) 10


3/25/18 ~ Sunland Derby (1 1/8M) Sunland Park (50-20-10-5)

Runaway Ghost (Fincher) 50
Dream Baby Dream (Asmussen) 20
Seven Trumpets (Romans) 10
Peace (Mandella) 5


3/17/18 ~ Rebel (1 1/16 M) Oaklawn (50-20-10-5)

Magnum Moon (Pletcher) 50
Solomini (Baffert) 20
Combatant (Asmussen) 10
Title Ready (Asmussen) 5


3/10/18 ~ Gotham (1M) Aqueduct (50-20-10-5)

Enticed (KMc) 50
Old Time Revival (Decker) 20
Free Drop Billy (Romans) 10
Firenze Fire (Ja. Servis) 5


3/10/18 ~ Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16M) Tampa Bay Downs (50-20-10-5)

Quip (Brisset) 50
Flameaway (Casse) 20
World of Trouble (Ja. Servis) 10
Vino Rosso (Pletcher) 5


3/10/18 ~ San Felipe (1 1/16M) Santa Anita (50-20-10-5)

Bolt d'Oro (Ruis) 50
McKinzie (Baffert) 20
Kanthaka (Hollendorfer) 10
Peace (Mandella) 5


3/3/18 ~ Fountain of Youth (1 1/16M) Gulfstream (50-20-10-5)

Promises Fulfilled (Romans) 50
Strike Power (Hennig) 20
Good Magic (Brown) 10
Machismo (Quartarolo) 5

[Hoblin]

Thanks, Steve, for compiling this list and updating it regularly. It's very much appreciated!

I'm happy to see Dark Templar taking a shot in the Louisiana Derby. I think he has a chance to step up his game at big odds against a field that includes at least three Graded Stakes winners.

[Kasept]

1. Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon) 150 (Lawana L. & Robert E. Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez ($1,140,000)
2. Good Magic (Curlin) 134 (e Five & Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz ($1,838,400)
3. Audible (Into Mischief) 110 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano ($803,520)
4. Noble Indy (Take Charge Indy) 110 (WinStar & Repole) Todd Pletcher/TBA ($640,000)
5. Vino Rosso (Curlin) 107 (Repole & St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez ($572,500)
6. Bolt d’Oro (Md'O) 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza ($980,000)
7. Enticed (Md'O) 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado ($545,880)
8. Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore ($1,947,299)
9. Justify (Scat Daddy) 100 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith ($600,000)
10. $-Flameaway (Scat Daddy) 70 (John C. Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano ($672,260)
11. Solomini (Curlin) 54 (Zayat Stables & Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat ($716,000)
12. Bravazo (Awesome Again) 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/TBA ($359,913)
13. My Boy Jack (Creative Cause) 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoys) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux ($622,000)
14. Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford) 52 (Robert J. Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie ($266,480)
15. Free Drop Billy (Union Rags) 44 (Albaugh Family Stables) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado ($597,200)
16. Lone Sailor (Majestic Warrior) 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham ($273,347)
17. Hofburg (Tapit) 40 (Juddmonte Farms) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz ($192,000)
18. Firenze Fire (Poseidon's Warrior) 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez ($647,500)
19. Combatant (Scat Daddy) 22 (Winchell & Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
20. Instilled Regard (Arch) 22 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario ($246,000)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. $-Blended Citizen 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey ($159,644)
22. Dream Baby Dream 20 (Dream Baby Dream Racing) Steve Asmussen/$181,000
23. Restoring Hope 20 (Gary & Mary West) Bob Baffert/$100,000
24. Sporting Chance 12 (Robert C. Baker & William L. Mack) D. Wayne Lukas /$337,000
25. Greyvitos 12 (Triple B Farms) Adam Kitchingman /$310,000
26. Givemeaminit 12 (Valene Farms) Dallas Stewart / $196,000
27. Pony Up 12 (Calumet Farm) Todd Pletcher/$101,580
28. Machismo 5 (Loooch Racing) Anthony Quararolo/$25,422

[blackthroatedwind]

He's not a Derby horse, but Old Time Revival is a cool horse. It's amazing the horses that owner has gotten with pretty much zero pedigrees.

[richard burch]

Good thread...easy to track the contenders as races are finished. Not really seeing a standout horse out of these so far but it's early.

[Dunbar]

"9. Solomini Bob Baffert 14 $616,000"

A typo--it should be 34 points.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Good thread...easy to track the contenders as races are finished. Not really seeing a standout horse out of these so far but it's early.

I agree - this is a good format for tracking the Derby contenders. Good job Steve.

[declansharbor]

End of March and one of the favorites for 5/5 has yet to run in a race that has Derby Points attached to it.

Has to be a first, no?

[Kasept]

1. Good Magic 134 (e Five Racing & Stonestreet Stables) Chad Brown/$1,838,400
2. Audible 110 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing & WinStar Farm) Todd Pletcher/$803,520
3. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar Farm & Repole Stable) Todd Pletcher/$640,000
4. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable) Todd Pletcher/$572,500
5. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/$980,000
6. Enticed 103 (Godolphin Racing) Kiaran McLaughlin/$545,880
7. Mendelssohn 100 (Derrick Smith, Mrs. John Magnier & Michael Tabor) Aidan O’Brien/$1,947,299
8. Justify 100 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing & WinStar Farm) Bob Baffert/$600,000
9. $-Flameaway 70 (John C. Oxley) Mark Casse/$672,260
10. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/$359,913
11. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert J. Baron) Dale Romans/$266,480
12. Magnum Moon 50 (Lawana L. & Robert E. Low) Todd Pletcher/$540,000 ~ AR Derby
13. $-Runaway Ghost 50 (Joe Peacock) Todd Fincher/$520,310
14. Quip 50 (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club & SF Racing) Rodolphe Brisset/$212,000 ~ AR Derby
15. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family Stables) Dale Romans/$597,200
16. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/$273,347
— f-Rayya 40 (Sheikh Rashid Bin Humaid Al Nuaimi) Bob Baffert/$600,000
17. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte Farms) Bill Mott/$192,000
18. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/$647,500
19. Solomini 34 (Zayat Stables, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor & Derrick Smith) Bob Baffert/$616,000 ~ AR Derby
< 20. Gronkowski (Phoenix Thoroughbred) Jeremy Noseda/$79,496
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. My Boy Jack 32 (Don’t Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoy Stables) Keith Desormeaux/$502,000 ~ AR Derby/Lexington
22. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine) Jerry Hollendorfer/$246,000
23. Snapper Sinclair 22 (Bloom Racing Stable) Steve Asmussen/$321,810
24. Combatant 22 (Winchell Thoroughbreds & Willis Horton Racing) Steve Asmussen/$300,000 ~ AR Derby
25. $-Blended Citizen 22 (Greg Hall & SAYJAY Racing) Doug O’Neill/$159,644
26. Reride 20 (Winchell Thoroughbreds) Steve Asmussen/$298,000
27. Dream Baby Dream 20 (Dream Baby Dream Racing Stable) Steve Asmussen/$176,000 ~ AR Derby
27. Restoring Hope 20 (Gary & Mary West) Bob Baffert /$100,000
28. Old Time Revival 20 (Fred Brei) Kenneth Decker /$100,000
29. Sporting Chance 12 (Robert C. Baker & William L. Mack) D. Wayne Lukas /$337,000
30. Givemeaminit 12 (Valene Farms) Dallas Stewart / $196,000
31. Greyvitos 10 (Triple B Farms) Adam Kitchingman /$300,000 ~ Lexington
32. Pony Up 8 (Calumet Farm) Todd Pletcher/ $81,580
33. Title Ready 5 (Charles E. Fipke) Steve Asmussen /$45,000 ~ AR Derby
34. City Plan 4 (Godolphin Racing ) Eoin Harty /$67,345

[tector]

I like My Boy Jack a bit, but unless they have given up on the Derby he has to go to Oaklawn. His running style is not often favored at KEE, and on the reduced points in the Lexington he would have to win to be in. In the AD a second would do.

I am looking for quality closers at a price in this Derby.

[Kasept]

1. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana L. & Robert E. Low) Todd Pletcher/$1,140,000
2. Good Magic 134 (e Five & Stonestreet) Chad Brown/$1,838,400
3. Audible 110 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Todd Pletcher/$803,520
4. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar & Repole) Todd Pletcher/$640,000
5. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole & St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/$572,500
6. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/$980,000
7. Enticed 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/$545,880
8. Mendelssohn 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/$1,947,299
9. Justify 100 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Bob Baffert/$600,000
10. Quip 90 (WinStar, China Horse Club & SF Racing) Rodolphe Brisset/$412,000
11. $-Flameaway 70 (John C. Oxley) Mark Casse/$672,260
12. Solomini 54 (Zayat Stables & Coolmore) Bob Baffert/$716,000
13. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/$359,913
14. My Boy Jack 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoy Stables) Keith Desormeaux/$622,000
15. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert J. Baron) Dale Romans/$266,480
16. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family Stables) Dale Romans/$597,200
17. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/$273,347
18. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte Farms) Bill Mott/$192,000
19. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/$647,500
20. Gronkowski (Phoenix Thoroughbred) Jeremy Noseda/$79,496
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Combatant 22 (Winchell & Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/$350,000
22. Snapper Sinclair 22 (Bloom Racing) Steve Asmussen/$321,810
23. Reride 20 (Winchell) Steve Asmussen/$298,000
24. Dream Baby Dream 20 (Dream Baby Dream Racing) Steve Asmussen/$181,000
25. Restoring Hope 20 (Gary & Mary West) Bob Baffert/$100,000
26. Sporting Chance 12 (Robert C. Baker & William L. Mack) D. Wayne Lukas /$337,000
27. Greyvitos 12 (Triple B Farms) Adam Kitchingman /$310,000
28. Givemeaminit 12 (Valene Farms) Dallas Stewart / $196,000
29. Pony Up 12 (Calumet Farm) Todd Pletcher/$101,580
30. Machismo 5 (Loooch Racing) Anthony Quararolo/$25,422

[taxicab]

Talk about being on the bubble.
Steve Asmussen has runners 21-24.

[casp0555]

interesting facts that probably most players know but I don't....btw, this is not a jab at Justify.

https://www.usracing.com/news/analys...kentucky-derby

[cal828]

Originally Posted by casp0555

interesting facts that probably most players know but I don't....btw, this is not a jab at Justify.

https://www.usracing.com/news/analys...kentucky-derby

Interesting stuff that makes you think twice about what I think are probably at least half of everyone's top ten and maybe even top five. On the other hand like the odds board, horses can't read this stuff and it's hard to throw out anything trained by Pletcher and Baffert. This article didn't address it, but a person should probably throw out Mendelssohn too, since no UAE
winner has ever won the KD.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by casp0555

interesting facts that probably most players know but I don't....btw, this is not a jab at Justify.

https://www.usracing.com/news/analys...kentucky-derby

He might end up being very good but I think Justify just needs more races and definitely don't like that he has never left Ca. and S.A.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by casp0555

interesting facts that probably most players know but I don't....btw, this is not a jab at Justify.

https://www.usracing.com/news/analys...kentucky-derby

The field size question was the big one in my mind before reading the article and was not surprised to see it mentioned. With this year's Derby, if Justify wins I lose.

If Mendelssohn wins (late shipper angle), I lose.

Those are just two trends that I play against typically.

I have loved Firenze Fire since last year, but think the distance and two turns is really not his game after watching him this year (one turn miler).

That leaves me with 17 others right now.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

4/7/18 ~ Santa Anita Derby (1 1/8M) Santa Anita (100-40-20-10)

Justify (Baffert)
Instilled Regard (Hollendorfer)
McKinzie (Baffert)
Bolt d'Oro (Ruis)

It doesn't seem likely that Baffert would run both McKinzie, who already has 40 points, and Justify, who has zero points, in the same race. Justify could finish 3rd by a neck and not make the Derby points cutoff. The Wood and Blue Grass look much softer.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It doesn't seem likely that Baffert would run both McKinzie, who already has 40 points, and Justify, who has zero points, in the same race. Justify could finish 3rd by a neck and not make the Derby points cutoff. The Wood and Blue Grass look much softer.

Right. Keeping them both at SA until he specifies.