5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

[Kasept]

145th KENTUCKY DERBY

1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 20-1
2. Tax (Gargan/Alvarado) 20-1
3. By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 20-1
4. Gray Magician (Miller/Van Dyke) 50-1
5. Improbable (Baffert/I. Ortiz) 6-1

6. Vekoma (Weaver/Castellano) 20-1
7. Maximum Security (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) 10-1
8. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 10-1
9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/R. Santana) 30-1
10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Lanerie) 30-1

11. Haikal (McLaughlin/Maragh) 30-1
13. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velazquez) 15-1
14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental) 15-1
15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 50-1
16. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 5-1

17. Roadster (Baffert/Geroux) 6-1
18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 30-1
19. Spinoff (Pletcher/M. Franco) 30-1
20. Country House (Mott/Prat) 30-1
21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Landeros) 30-1

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Vekoma
2-Maximum Security
3-War of Will
4-Grat Magician
5-Spinoff


NEAR

6-Bodexpress
7-Improbable
8-Tax
9-Roadster
10-By My Standards


STALK

11-Game Winner
12-Long Range Toddy
13-Tacitus
14-Code of Honor
15-Cutting Humor


OFF

16-Win Win Win
17-Plus Que Parfait
18-Haikel
19-Country House
20-Master Fencer

[moses]

Poor Mark Casse. Setback in the Louisiana Derby and now drawing the 1 post.

[knickslions2]

Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!

[tector]

1-War of Will (War Front), Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
2-Tax (Arch), Danny Gargan, Junior Alvarado, 20-1
3-By My Standards (Goldencents), Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 20-1
4-Gray Magician (Graydar), Peter Miller, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1
5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
6-Vekoma (Candy Ride), George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 20-1
7-Maximum Security (New Year's Day), Jason Servis, Luis Saez, 10-1
8-Tacitus (Tapit) , William Mott, Jose Ortiz, 10-1
9-Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry), Brandan Walsh, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
10-Cutting Humor (First Samurai), Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 30-1
11-Haikal (Daaher), Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
12-Omaha Beach (War Front), Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 4-1
13-Code of Honor (Noble Mission), Shug McGaughey, John Velazquez, 15-1
14-Win Win Win (Hat Trick), Michael Trombetta, Julian Pimentel, 15-1
15-Master Fencer (Just a Way), Koichi Tsunoda, 50-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1
18-Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy), Steve Asmussen, Jon Court, 30-1
19-Spinoff (Hard Spun), Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 30-1
20-Country House (Lookin At Lucky), William Mott, Flavien Prat, 30-1

[cal828]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!

Interesting that Baffert gets the 17 post for Roadster. Every year it seems that there is some historical precedent or "curse" to overcome like the unraced at 2 curse or the curse of the BC Juvenile winner or the NY Bred curse or some such. Maybe this year's curse is the 17 hole curse which I think is the only post that has not produced a winner. I don't particularly like Roadster or dislike him, but as we all know, it's hazardous to your financial health to leave Baffert or Pletcher or Chad Brown(Thank God he doesn't have 2 or 3 in this race) out of your picks.

[LITF]

Originally Posted by Kasept

2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Vekoma
2-Maximum Security
3-Omaha Beach
4-War of Will
5-Improbable


NEAR

6-Gray Magician
7-Spinoff
8-Tax
9-Roadster
10-By My Standards


STALK

11-Game Winner
12-Long Range Toddy
13-Tacitus
14-Code of Honor
15-Cutting Humor


OFF

16-Win Win Win
17-Plus Que Parfait
18-Haikel
19-Country House
20-Master Fencer

War of Will has to be sent now, right? I am going to handicap this race with him on the lead, Maximum Security 2nd and Vekoma 3rd. Think the pace will be faster than originally thought.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kasept

2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Vekoma
2-Maximum Security
3-Omaha Beach
4-War of Will
5-Improbable

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse? Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either. To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.

It's being suggested/anticipated because of how eager he's been in his works.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.

He was pretty close to a fast pace in the Street Sense. Who else is clearly faster than him? I suspect he’ll be easily in the 5-10 range, maybe higher up as I’m counting War of Will out of the early pace now.

[Kasept]

GARY YOUNG CLOCK NOTES/VIDS: https://www.garyyoungthoroughbreds.c...ucky-derby-145