3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 04-09-2011, 09:34 PM

Starting with the Wood Memorial ... do not trust anyones speed figure for this race. Do not trust anyones pace figure for this race.

The_Fat_Man is no longer posting at Derby Trail - and one has to wonder if he's currently employed as the track superintendent at Aqueduct. In the first nine races today at AQU - all of which around one-turn - the leader after a half mile failed to win eight of them. Horses leading more than halfway through dirt races - often have a lot more success than that.

So far this Aqueduct meet - there have been just four dirt routes. Here is a recap of how the pacesetter has performed in each ....

* AQU Dirt Route #1 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Chairman Now
Previous Beyer: 82
Fractions: 25.22 - 50.60 - 1:15.37 (all uncontested)
Finish: 3rd at 7/5 odds in field of 5.

* AQU Dirt Route #2 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Understatement
Previous Beyer: 101
Fractions: 24.75 - 49.47 - 1:13.48 (all uncontested)
Finish: 3rd at 5/2 beaten double digit lengths in field of 5.

* AQU Dirt Route #3 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: All In No Outs
Previous Beyer: 82
Fractions: 26.29 - 53.33 - 1:18.85
Result: 2nd at 7/5 odds.

* AQU Dirt Route #4 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Uncle Mo
Previous Beyer: 89
Fractions: 23.49 - 47.98 - 1:12.28
Result: 3rd at 1/9 odds.

Uncle Mo's performance today looked incredibly pathetic. The pace LOOKED very slow ... but has to considered a lot faster than people think given the info posted above.

I'm of the opinion that a lack of fitness got Uncle Mo beat over that racetrack today. The Timely Writer was both a glorified workout and a 2-furlong horse race... Uncle Mo was truly running 1st off of the layoff today in my opinion. On a glib dirt track playing kind to speed (most all of them do) Uncle Mo wouldn't have got as dead-tired as he did. His lack of fitness was simply exposed today on what was a VERY demanding dirt track for front-end speed types going long.

As for the Santa Anita Derby .... the Beyer will come back 4 points higher than it will for First Dude's ALW win. It was a pretty damn decent race IMO.

Because Comma To The Top ran 4 points faster than First Dude - I won't knock him ... but I'm now in agreement with his connections to pass on the KY Derby. Perhaps they might look at a race like the Preakness (First Dude was a close 2nd in last years Preakness) - or just have a fresh horse for the summer. That was a true pace today - and he can stay 9fs no problems.

Midnight Interlude won a MSW race easily by 8+ lengths last out. He went 25 Beyer points faster than the days other two-turn route... however, a variant split resulted in him only getting a Beyer about 10 points faster. He proved himself a nice prospect today.

The 3rd and 4th place horses will find themselves on the earnings bubble - but both are capable of rating - and both would be legit candidates to get a piece at a price in the KY Derby.

Updated Chances of winning:

Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)

The Rest: 3.75%