3/12 (TAM): TB Derby, Hillsborough (G2's), FL Oaks (G3), Challenger

[Kasept]

3rd (1:24) Challenger S.

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Outlash Velazquez J R 116 L
2 Breaking Lucky Trujillo E 116 L
3 Adirondack King Castellano J J 116 L
4 Ghost Hunter Gallardo A A 118 L
5 Ami's Holiday Bravo J 116 L
6 This Boy's Sharp Centeno D E 116 L
7 Neck 'n Neck Leparoux J R 120 L



8th (3:54) Florida Oaks (G3)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Enjoy Yourself (GB) Gallardo A A 116 L
2 Conquest Bebop Geroux F 116 L
3 Bonita Cruz M R 116 L
4 Ava's Kitten Ortiz I Jr 120 L
5 Missalaney Bravo J 116 L
6 Family Meeting Pedroza B 120 L
7 Spinamiss (IRE) Castellano J J 116 L
8 Miss Otis Lanerie C J 116 L
9 Silver Magnolia De La Cruz F 116 L
10 Gamble's Ghost Velazquez J R 120
11 Cinder Lebron V 116 L
12 Valueable Charmer Allen R D Jr 116 L
13 Baciami Piccola (GB) Leparoux J R 116
14 Princess Princess Centeno D E 116 L



10th (4:54) Hillsborough S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Isabella Sings Velazquez J R 120 L
2 Speed Seeker Cruz M R 118 L
3 Rainha Da Bateria Prado E S 118 L
4 Bureau de Change Geroux F 116 L
5 Lovely Loyree De La Cruz F 116 L
6 Tepin Leparoux J R 122 L
7 Button Down (GB) Bravo J 118 L
8 Royal Jewely Centeno D E 116 L
9 Danza Cavallo (FR) Ortiz I Jr 116 L
10 Ball Dancing Castellano J J 122 L



11th (5:24) Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $350,000

1 Morning Fire Centeno D E 116 Blk-Off L
2 Rafting Prado E S 116 L
3 Outwork Velazquez J R 116 L
4 Economic Model Ortiz I Jr 116 L
5 Star Hill Leparoux J R 116 L
6 Riker Geroux F 118 L
7 Destin Castellano J J 116 L
8 Brody's Cause Lanerie C J 122 L
9 Tale of S'avall Bravo J 116 L
10 Awesome Banner Gallardo A A 116 L

[RHT2004]

Why would Johnny stay on Outwork?

[RHT2004]

Can Ball Dancing beat Tepin? Awful lot of speed on paper.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Can Ball Dancing beat Tepin? Awful lot of speed on paper.

Anyone have any thoughts? Even Chads other horse isn't impossible.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Anyone have any thoughts? Even Chads other horse isn't impossible.

Just took a quick look at it. Looks like should be quick pace but that usually means one horse will go all the way. Tepin looks tough here. I think the 1 horse looks sneaky on the rail and 3 horse could be coming if the pace gets cooking. FYI happy bday.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Just took a quick look at it. Looks like should be quick pace but that usually means one horse will go all the way. Tepin looks tough here. I think the 1 horse looks sneaky on the rail and 3 horse could be coming if the pace gets cooking. FYI happy bday.

The 1 would be my 3rd use if I decided to totally toss Tepin. I thought she had a chance.
Thanks for the hbd.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Anyone have any thoughts? Even Chads other horse isn't impossible.

Joe I wish there was something more insightful to say, but I can't see anything in here beating Tepin, short of a major regression + a huge move up by someone else.

If I had to play against, I would take a flyer with Josie Caroll's entry - Button Down, on the hope that firm grass moves her up (we simply don't know), that she can lay closer (I personally do not see the front end rush predicted here - I think the 1 is clearly controlling speed), and that Tepin has some trouble.

Failing that, everybody is running for second place here.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Joe I wish there was something more insightful to say, but I can't see anything in here beating Tepin, short of a major regression + a huge move up by someone else.

If I had to play against, I would take a flyer with Josie Caroll's entry - Button Down, on the hope that firm grass moves her up (we simply don't know), that she can lay closer (I personally do not see the front end rush predicted here - I think the 1 is clearly controlling speed), and that Tepin has some trouble.

Failing that, everybody is running for second place here.

I could see a situation like the Diane last year. Fast pace, Tepin has to attack it and gets nailed late. 9f feels like a bit of an equalizer.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Joe I wish there was something more insightful to say, but I can't see anything in here beating Tepin, short of a major regression + a huge move up by someone else.

If I had to play against, I would take a flyer with Josie Caroll's entry - Button Down, on the hope that firm grass moves her up (we simply don't know), that she can lay closer (I personally do not see the front end rush predicted here - I think the 1 is clearly controlling speed), and that Tepin has some trouble.

Failing that, everybody is running for second place here.

not that i think she will lose, but this is NOT her best distance....thought Motion's horse was worth a second look

-bt-

[cakes44]

Solid effort by the #1 vs Tepin. Zero running whatsoever by any of the other contenders.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Why would Johnny stay on Outwork?

Dunno but do like he's riding Gamble's Ghost. Major upgrade from her jockey last year.
Another Woodbine horse, Golden Sabre, races Friday at Tampa (R8). If you want to see Luis Contreras at his finest watch Golden Sabre in the Nijinsky and Sky Classic last year.

[Easy Goer Otis]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Dunno but do like he's riding Gamble's Ghost. Major upgrade from her jockey last year.
Another Woodbine horse, Golden Sabre, races Friday at Tampa (R8). If you want to see Luis Contreras at his finest watch Golden Sabre in the Nijinsky and Sky Classic last year.

Thanks for pointing this horse out. Impressive stamina and ability to make a long drive. I watched the Nijinsky and Sky Classic races and no doubt Luis had to ride hard to extricate himself in the stretch after saving ground on the rail in both races to finish 2nd.

But quite interesting that Malcolm Pierce then went to Emma Jayne Wilson for the next race (Durham Cup) and she placed him on the outside the whole way. Golden Sabre won easily sweeping 5 wide and taking over in mid-stretch with a sustained unobstructed run through the long Woodbine strip, handily beating sturdy rivals Are You Kidding Me and Luke's Alley.

One thing is for sure, this one will be flying late. Thanks again for the heads up!

Cheers,

O

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by Easy Goer Otis

But quite interesting that Malcolm Pierce then went to Emma Jayne Wilson for the next race (Durham Cup) and she placed him on the outside the whole way. Golden Sabre won easily sweeping 5 wide and taking over in mid-stretch with a sustained unobstructed run through the long Woodbine strip, handily beating sturdy rivals Are You Kidding Me and Luke's Alley.

After the Sky Classic race I don't think there was a chance Luis would be riding him again. He was however riding the favorite (Luke's Alley) in the Durham Cup. With Emma Jayne keeping him out of trouble, Golden Sabre not only won but set a track record doing so.
Pretty funny watching the replay again. Luis keeps looking back (5x!) to see where Golden Sabre is. There's no doubt he knew what Emma Jayne had under her that day and was at least smart enough to realize she had the horse to beat.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Why would Johnny stay on Outwork?

The horse is going to be an absolute freak around 2 turns. This may or may not be his race, but later in the year...watch out

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The horse is going to be an absolute freak around 2 turns. This may or may not be his race, but later in the year...watch out

I bet he never wins a race where he is over 8:5 for the rest of his career ( and would gladly take 4:1 that he never wins another race period ).

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I bet he never wins a race where he is over 8:5 for the rest of his career ( and would gladly take 4:1 that he never wins another race period ).

Lonestar will take that bet.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

Lonestar will take that bet.

Paying off is a different story .

Wow I'm on a roll !

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I bet he never wins a race where he is over 8:5 for the rest of his career ( and would gladly take 4:1 that he never wins another race period ).

If I had not seen this horse in person last out, I would tend to agree with you (at least about the 8:5 part). I've not seen a horse in recent memory this large, carry himself as quickly and as effortlessly as he does.

On the critical side, he had the look of a horse that still needs to develop a bit. I would never get in the business of second guessing Todd or Mike, but he appeared to me to be a horse that would benefit from taking the less traditional route to the Belmont Stakes and will be, if healthy, a major player this summer.

[-BT-]

I wonder if they Mayor of TBD is going to be able to shake free from his all-day mandatory work meeting on saturday?

-bt-

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If I had not seen this horse in person last out, I would tend to agree with you (at least about the 8:5 part). I've not seen a horse in recent memory this large, carry himself as quickly and as effortlessly as he does.

On the critical side, he had the look of a horse that still needs to develop a bit. I would never get in the business of second guessing Todd or Mike, but he appeared to me to be a horse that would benefit from taking the less traditional route to the Belmont Stakes and will be, if healthy, a major player this summer.

Thanks. I'm skeptical but respect your opinion.